My guess is that the truth is likely to be behind

My guess is that the truth is likely to be behind door number 2: the silence is intentional, although the calculation is slightly different from what you propose. Instead, current circumstances are not clear enough for management to do a pr or cc, meaning that they are uncertain, and that a pr of ‘We don’t know’ will do more harm than good. As far as the share price is concerned, I think it sits where it sits because 1. the company has had to sell shares at these rock bottom prices for months just to raise funds to pay for whatever they’re doing with the vaccine, excellagen and any expense related to the IPO; and 2, because there’s no market for the stock...nobody wants to buy until things clarify.

I keep thinking about China’s recent pledge to provide the COVAX initiative with 2+ billion doses of vaccine ($$ at cost $$) in early 2022, although because the current vaccines offered by China don’t have a sterling track record (why would COVAX want second rate vaccines they have to pay for?)...that somewhere in China’s thinking is ‘let’s use this agreement as a way to deliver the NGIO vaccine to the world in bulk’, and make a few bucks in the process. If the FDA gives the IND clearance in the next 30 days, the clinical trials (in China) could be completed by the end of the year and we could see lots of NGIO vaccine going out the door in 2022.

Just sayin’...