I would think that Lympro will not be sold outrigh
Post# of 30028
Posted On: 12/19/2014 11:47:19 AM
Re: Anaconda83 #13378
I would think that Lympro will not be sold outright under USD800m, which is the selling price for Amyvid. IMHO Gerald will not allow it.
It may be lower than USD800m if there is another monetized benefit in exchange, e.g. substantial royalty payments, an asset acquired from the buyer etc.
If I have to sell Lympro now, I would do it for USD1.5B or more. The price will get higher as its value is further recognised.
The value of Lympro is not measured only in terms of its revenue. Very importantly, it can be a strategic asset for the buyer pharma to have a huge advantage in terms of using it exclusively for its Alzhemier clincial trials to dramatically improve the success probability of its own potential Alzhemier drugs, which will worth many billions of dollars if approved. The buyer may also set a higher monopolistic price, esp if it is a BP.
The tangible and intangible value of Lympro may put potential buyers, esp BP, in a delicate position: to 'blink first' and table an attractive offer to buy Lympro now or potentially lose out the pole and possibly irreplaceable leadership position in the Alzhemier (and Parkinson etc.) arena to a competitor?
Looking at the change of news from spin-off of diagnostics division to spin-off of Lympro, likely there are many things happening behind the scenes dynamically. The public announcement and schedule of potential spin-off is likely not meant for the public shareholders, but for some other groups of interests.
If Lympro is really sold for USD1.5B or more, be prepared to see AMBS price jump to $2 or more. This will be in line with Gerald's hint that there may not be RS for uplist.
It may be lower than USD800m if there is another monetized benefit in exchange, e.g. substantial royalty payments, an asset acquired from the buyer etc.
If I have to sell Lympro now, I would do it for USD1.5B or more. The price will get higher as its value is further recognised.
The value of Lympro is not measured only in terms of its revenue. Very importantly, it can be a strategic asset for the buyer pharma to have a huge advantage in terms of using it exclusively for its Alzhemier clincial trials to dramatically improve the success probability of its own potential Alzhemier drugs, which will worth many billions of dollars if approved. The buyer may also set a higher monopolistic price, esp if it is a BP.
The tangible and intangible value of Lympro may put potential buyers, esp BP, in a delicate position: to 'blink first' and table an attractive offer to buy Lympro now or potentially lose out the pole and possibly irreplaceable leadership position in the Alzhemier (and Parkinson etc.) arena to a competitor?
Looking at the change of news from spin-off of diagnostics division to spin-off of Lympro, likely there are many things happening behind the scenes dynamically. The public announcement and schedule of potential spin-off is likely not meant for the public shareholders, but for some other groups of interests.
If Lympro is really sold for USD1.5B or more, be prepared to see AMBS price jump to $2 or more. This will be in line with Gerald's hint that there may not be RS for uplist.
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