Think a bit further, it appears around 23 million
Post# of 43064
Posted On: 09/12/2014 3:03:12 PM
Re: xxxxcslewis #13528
Think a bit further, it appears around 23 million shares were issued by the company during the period between August 28, 2009 and January 4, 2012. Those shares I believe would also be eligible to be included in the class.
My back of the envelope analysis for the class action settlement indicates approximately 51 million shares were traded between August 28, 2009 and January 4, 2012. It seems to me shares traded between market makers should be barred from the class but I have no idea if that is the case or not. My guess is trades between market makers comprise most of the trading volume.
So, assuming all traded shares are included, there appears to be a total of around 74 million shares potentially eligible to be included in the class.
There will be 3 million unrestricted shares deposited with the escrow agent around October 5, 2014, assuming the final ruling is made on September 25, 2014.
The liquidation of the 3 million shares by the escrow agent may begin around January 3, 2015. The maximum number of shares liquidated will be the greater of 12,500 per day, or ten percent of the average volume over the previous 90 days before the judgement date. So it looks like 12,500 per day will be the maximum and that equates to 240 market days, or approximately a year.
The settlement fund will amount to the 3 million shares times the average sale price over those 240 market days, less approximately $200,000.
The unknowns are; the number of shares that will comprise the class and the average price per share. I will hazard a guess that no more than 30 million shares (~40%)will comprise the class.
Further, I will hazard a guess that events over the next 90 days may cause a dramatic price increase and that increase may be further impacted by events in 2015. 4k has often listed the possible events. A average price higher than the all time high over the liquidation period is possible, perhaps much higher.
Assuming a average price of $10.00 results in a total settlement fund of $29,800,000. Assuming the 30 million shares mentioned above are accepted into the class, it then works out eventually to around $1.00 per share for those shares included in the class.
Everyone should do their own analysis.
Read More: http://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=1985...z3D825M25w
My back of the envelope analysis for the class action settlement indicates approximately 51 million shares were traded between August 28, 2009 and January 4, 2012. It seems to me shares traded between market makers should be barred from the class but I have no idea if that is the case or not. My guess is trades between market makers comprise most of the trading volume.
So, assuming all traded shares are included, there appears to be a total of around 74 million shares potentially eligible to be included in the class.
There will be 3 million unrestricted shares deposited with the escrow agent around October 5, 2014, assuming the final ruling is made on September 25, 2014.
The liquidation of the 3 million shares by the escrow agent may begin around January 3, 2015. The maximum number of shares liquidated will be the greater of 12,500 per day, or ten percent of the average volume over the previous 90 days before the judgement date. So it looks like 12,500 per day will be the maximum and that equates to 240 market days, or approximately a year.
The settlement fund will amount to the 3 million shares times the average sale price over those 240 market days, less approximately $200,000.
The unknowns are; the number of shares that will comprise the class and the average price per share. I will hazard a guess that no more than 30 million shares (~40%)will comprise the class.
Further, I will hazard a guess that events over the next 90 days may cause a dramatic price increase and that increase may be further impacted by events in 2015. 4k has often listed the possible events. A average price higher than the all time high over the liquidation period is possible, perhaps much higher.
Assuming a average price of $10.00 results in a total settlement fund of $29,800,000. Assuming the 30 million shares mentioned above are accepted into the class, it then works out eventually to around $1.00 per share for those shares included in the class.
Everyone should do their own analysis.
Read More: http://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=1985...z3D825M25w
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