My back of the envelope analysis for the class act

My back of the envelope analysis for the class action settlement indicates approximately 51 million shares(4k ignore my previous request I found it) were traded between August 28, 2009 and January 4, 2012.

There will be 3 million unrestricted shares deposited with the escrow agent around October 5, 2014, assuming the final ruling is made on September 25, 2014.

The liquidation of the 3 million shares by the escrow agent may begin around January 3, 2015. The maximum number of shares liquidated will be the greater of 12,500 per day, or ten percent of the average volume over the previous 90 days before the judgement date. So it looks like 12,500 per day will be the maximum and that equates to 240 market days, or approximately a year.

The settlement fund will amount to the 3 million shares times the average sale price over those 240 market days, less approximately $200,000.

The unknowns are; the number of shares that will comprise the class and the average price per share. I will hazard a guess that no more than 20 million shares will comprise the class.

Further, I will hazard a guess that events over the next 90 days may cause a dramatic price increase and that increase may be further impacted by events in 2015. 4k has often listed the possible events. A average price higher than the all time high over the liquidation period is possible, perhaps much higher.

Assuming a average price of $10.00 results in a total settlement fund of $29,800,000. Assuming the 20 million shares mentioned above, works out to around $1.50 per share for those shares included in the class.

Everyone should do their own analysis.