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Posted On: 01/31/2019 8:43:55 PM
Post# of 154852
trding - we have updated our model while also validating
all factors (CCR5, MDR2 etc) again w/ listed references: https://finesand.wordpress.com/2019/01/14/cyt...omment-268
Using the latest CYDY presentation’s $75k annual price as WAC
and published current known numbers on HAART%, MDR2+MDR3% as well as Suppressed ViralLoad% .. numbers became much higher.
The row ‘CYDY 2019 Sheet’ reflects the numbers used by CYDY’s latest presentation. They obviously multiplied ‘market penetration’ with the actual MDR2% and SupVL% in their resulting USD value.
Therefor the row ‘CYDY 2019’ shows the actual MDR2% and SupVL% and uses a modest matching market penetration.
The row ‘R&R 2016 Metrics’ uses the old 2016 metrics from R&D (now HC Wainwright).
Before we publish them for an updated valuation model, I like you all to review the numbers and to comment.
– Proportions taken from CYDY old and new slides (BioVid Study) + Rodman & Renshaw Oct-2016 analysis used 70% CCR5 and penetration of 9% 2020 resulting in 6.3% total, where 20% MDR-2 is the lower end and covered by https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/513281
– 2009 https://doi.org/10.1086/597352 ART resistance: 1999 50-57%, 2007 37-45%, Followup 45% -> 49%; 2019 MDR2 + MDR3 35.34%
– HIV Viral Load Suppression Performance VL < 200 copies/ml https://hab.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hab/...asures.pdf
– HIV Research Network https://cds.johnshopkins.edu/hivrn/ VL <= 50 copies/ml: IN2010 43%, IN2012 55%, IN2015 72% https://portalcontent.johnshopkins.edu/HIVRN/...160916.pdf
– CYDY BioVid Study projects market penetration of at least 25-60% for Combo and 40-45% for Mono, i.e. not concerned patients to take PRO-140 for HIV-1; 32-54% Sup-VL
PDF https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295...ydy-02.pdf
ODS Spreadsheet https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295...ydy-02.ods (LibreOffice)
You may use $70k WAC now, i.e. $49k net after usual 30% discount.
The numbers all harmonize quite well, same w/ 2020 > $480M revenues.
all factors (CCR5, MDR2 etc) again w/ listed references: https://finesand.wordpress.com/2019/01/14/cyt...omment-268
Using the latest CYDY presentation’s $75k annual price as WAC
and published current known numbers on HAART%, MDR2+MDR3% as well as Suppressed ViralLoad% .. numbers became much higher.
The row ‘CYDY 2019 Sheet’ reflects the numbers used by CYDY’s latest presentation. They obviously multiplied ‘market penetration’ with the actual MDR2% and SupVL% in their resulting USD value.
Therefor the row ‘CYDY 2019’ shows the actual MDR2% and SupVL% and uses a modest matching market penetration.
The row ‘R&R 2016 Metrics’ uses the old 2016 metrics from R&D (now HC Wainwright).
Before we publish them for an updated valuation model, I like you all to review the numbers and to comment.
– Proportions taken from CYDY old and new slides (BioVid Study) + Rodman & Renshaw Oct-2016 analysis used 70% CCR5 and penetration of 9% 2020 resulting in 6.3% total, where 20% MDR-2 is the lower end and covered by https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/513281
– 2009 https://doi.org/10.1086/597352 ART resistance: 1999 50-57%, 2007 37-45%, Followup 45% -> 49%; 2019 MDR2 + MDR3 35.34%
– HIV Viral Load Suppression Performance VL < 200 copies/ml https://hab.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/hab/...asures.pdf
– HIV Research Network https://cds.johnshopkins.edu/hivrn/ VL <= 50 copies/ml: IN2010 43%, IN2012 55%, IN2015 72% https://portalcontent.johnshopkins.edu/HIVRN/...160916.pdf
– CYDY BioVid Study projects market penetration of at least 25-60% for Combo and 40-45% for Mono, i.e. not concerned patients to take PRO-140 for HIV-1; 32-54% Sup-VL
PDF https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295...ydy-02.pdf
ODS Spreadsheet https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/282295...ydy-02.ods (LibreOffice)
You may use $70k WAC now, i.e. $49k net after usual 30% discount.
The numbers all harmonize quite well, same w/ 2020 > $480M revenues.
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