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Posted On: 01/31/2019 6:24:27 PM
Post# of 154847
Question: What is the size of the population for combo be approved?
NP said in the recent talk, the unmet need population is people with AIDS. From below, I estimate 18,160x3=54,480
Assume 70% have ccr5, which could be wrong as I have read later stages is usually dual, that gives around 40,000 people in the US with AIDS having CCR5 only.
https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-...statistics
https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-ai...-infection
The combo trail was for MDR 3 or MDR 2 with limited options, see quote below. Their estimated market potential uses the MDR2 estimate, but on the low end.
There is a huge difference in population 10x between MDR2 and MDR3.
NP said in the recent talk, the unmet need population is people with AIDS. From below, I estimate 18,160x3=54,480
Assume 70% have ccr5, which could be wrong as I have read later stages is usually dual, that gives around 40,000 people in the US with AIDS having CCR5 only.
Quote:
In 2016, 18,160 people received an AIDS diagnosis.
https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-...statistics
Quote:
Without treatment, people with AIDS typically survive about 3 years.
https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-ai...-infection
The combo trail was for MDR 3 or MDR 2 with limited options, see quote below. Their estimated market potential uses the MDR2 estimate, but on the low end.
Quote:
treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients with documented genotypic or phenotypic resistance to at least one ART drug within three drug classes OR Treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients with documented genotypic or phenotypic resistance to at least one ART drug within two drug classes and have limited treatment options . .
There is a huge difference in population 10x between MDR2 and MDR3.
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