Insights Ahead of Tryg A/S's Q3 2025 Results Announcement

Prepare for Tryg A/S's Upcoming Q3 2025 Results

As Tryg A/S gears up for the upcoming Q3 2025 results, it will host a series of pre-close analyst calls and meetings starting on 25 September. This step is designed to engage with capital market participants and discuss essential factors that are shaping the company's financial landscape.

Revenue Growth Trends

Tryg has established a robust revenue distribution across the Scandinavian territories, with about 50% originating from Denmark, 30% from Sweden, and 20% from Norway. In the previous quarter, Q3 2024, Tryg reported impressive insurance revenues amounting to DKK 9,786 million.

The company's revenue performance indicates a continuous growth trajectory, with a reported local currency growth of 4.0% in Q2 2025. It's worth noting that Q3 2024 experienced an exceptional one-off revenue boost of around DKK 50 million.

Currency Exchange Impact

For stakeholders focusing on financial outcomes, the conversion of earnings from local currencies to DKK reveals that the anticipated average value of SEK 100 stands at DKK 67.1, an increase from DKK 65.2 in Q3 2024. Similarly, NOK 100 is expected to convert to DKK 63.3, a decrease from DKK 64.2 in the previous year.

Understanding the Claims Environment

In analyzing insurance claims, it’s evident that Tryg operates in a stable environment. Recent performance trends in underlying claims can be seen as trustworthy indicators for what lies ahead. In Q3 2024, the Group's underlying claims ratio was reported at 67.3%.

Looking to the future, at the capital markets day held in December 2024, Tryg indicated expectations for underlying performance to remain stable or show slight improvement as part of its strategic plan extending to 2027.

Weather and Large Claims Contributions

For Q3, normalized weather claims are on track to account for 20% of the anticipated annual guidance of DKK 800 million, translating to DKK 160 million. Historically, this guidance is spread across the year: 40% expected in Q1, 10% in Q2, 20% in Q3, and the remaining 30% in Q4.

Interest Rate Projections

With respect to the evolving financial landscape, Tryg anticipates a discount rate of around 2.4% for Q3. This rate has remained consistent, having also been recorded at 2.4% in Q2 2025.

Long-term Run-off Forecast

At the 2024 capital markets day, a long-term run-off expectation of approximately 2% towards 2027 was communicated by Tryg, signaling prudent financial management and risk mitigation strategies.

Investment Strategies Unveiled

Tryg's investment activities are strategically segmented into a match portfolio valued at approximately DKK 45 billion and a free portfolio worth about DKK 15 billion as of Q2 2025. Following the risk mitigation strategy shared at the 2024 capital markets day, the free portfolio now primarily comprises Scandinavian covered bonds and government bonds, accounting for roughly DKK 12 billion of its value.

The anticipated return on bonds is critical to projecting investment outcomes, with bonds representing half of the two Bloomberg tickers NYKRCMB2 and NYKRCMG2 utilized for assessing performance. For the real estate segment, Tryg estimates a normalized annual return of 6.5%.

Financial Income and Expenditure

The match portfolio is projected to yield returns from premium provisions, expected at DKK 65 million quarterly given the current interest rate environment. Additionally, Tryg anticipates costs regarding 'Other financial income and expenses' to settle around DKK -90 million quarterly, which primarily include currency hedge-related costs.

Guidance on Income Fluctuations

The guidance for other income and expenses falls within a range of DKK -350 million to DKK -370 million on a quarterly basis. This primarily reflects the amortization of intangible assets stemming from the RSA Scandinavia acquisition.

Impact of Currency Fluctuations

Changes in SEK significantly impact the operational results, which are recorded primarily in DKK, resulting in compounds that further affect Tryg's forecasts and performance outcomes.

Future Estimates and Shareholder Insights

Concluding with shareholder insights, Tryg reported a total of 603,076 outstanding shares as of Q2 2025, with no significant changes anticipated in this number. Looking to the future, tryg is establishing its ambitions, aiming for its highest recorded insurance service result of between DKK 8.0 and DKK 8.4 billion by 2027, moving gradually upwards throughout the strategy period.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of Tryg's upcoming Q3 2025 results?

Tryg will announce its Q3 2025 results on 10 October 2025, around 7:30 CET.

Who will present during the conference call?

The conference call will feature presentations from CEO Johan Kirstein Brammer, CFO Allan Kragh Thaysen, CTO Mikael Kärrsten, and SVP Gianandrea Roberti.

What is Tryg's projected growth in insurance revenue?

Tryg reports a stable growth trajectory aiming for an insurance service result of DKK 8.0-8.4 billion by 2027.

How does currency fluctuation affect Tryg's financial results?

Currency fluctuations impact Tryg's reported financials, particularly affecting costs and revenues due to conversions between DKK and other currencies.

Where can I find more information about Tryg's performance?

Further insights and updates about Tryg's financial performance can be accessed on their official website, tryg.com, especially post-results announcement.

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