Trends in Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices as of September 2024

Understanding Trends in Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices

In September, data from Cox Automotive revealed that wholesale used vehicle prices have dipped slightly following two months of upward movement. After enjoying a temporary upswing in July and August, the prices adjusted downward by 0.5% from August to September. This trend highlights the continuous dynamics within the automotive market.

What Drives the Changes in Used Vehicle Prices?

As the used vehicle market responds to various internal and external factors, prevailing lower listing prices play a crucial role in shaping sales forecasts. The analysis indicates that used-vehicle sales are projected to reach approximately 19.9 million by the end of the year, marking a 3.1% increase compared to last year. This growth reflects ongoing consumer interest in used vehicles, driven partly by affordable pricing.

Forecasting Future Trends

However, the overall wholesale values are anticipated to decrease by 0.6% on an annual basis, which indicates a slowdown relative to typical long-term averages of about 2.3% annual growth. These insights suggest a period of stabilization in wholesale prices, shifting from earlier growth trends.

Impact of External Events on Vehicle Demand

The recent hurricane season has also been a focal point for the Manheim team. Following the events of Hurricane Helene, initial assessments suggest that market demand has not spiked in response to the impact of the storm. Unlike previous major events such as Hurricane Harvey, there seems to be no immediate surge in demand or spike in vehicle values. The storm’s trajectory and the response within the vehicle market have been closely monitored, indicating a more measured reaction.

Current Market Performance and Consumer Behavior

According to the latest statistics, consumers are observing year-over-year reductions in used vehicle prices. Presenting a retail listing price averaging $25,278, there has been a slight drop of 0.7% over the last month, along with a 6% decrease compared to the previous year. While sales in September did experience a decline relative to August, they rose by 9% year-over-year, aligning with expert forecasts of continued growth in used vehicle sales for the year.

Looking Ahead: 2024 Expectations and Projections

As the year progresses, Cox Automotive anticipates a relatively flat trend in used vehicle values through the remainder of 2024. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noted that September’s figures seemed to outperform historical expectations, with projections indicating that the fourth quarter might follow a similar path. As fewer lease maturities enter the market, there is an expectation of diminished depreciation trends moving forward.

Long-term Projections in Vehicle Values

Looking further ahead, specifically into 2025 and 2026, analysts predict a slight turnaround in values with a 2.4% increase anticipated at the end of 2025 and a 2.6% gain expected the following year. Such projections signify a potential shift towards improved stability in the used vehicle segment, although a slight relaxation of expected depreciation is anticipated in coming years.

Frequently Asked Questions

What drove the decline in wholesale used vehicle prices in September?

The decline was influenced by a combination of seasonal adjustments and lower listing prices that aligned with typical market behavior during this time of year.

How are used vehicle sales projected to perform by the end of 2024?

Sales are expected to finish at approximately 19.9 million units, reflecting a 3.1% increase from the previous year.

What factors are influencing the prices in the used vehicle market?

Factors such as listing prices, consumer demand, and external events like natural disasters have significant impacts on the used vehicle market trends.

How does Hurricane Helene impact the used vehicle market?

Initial evaluations suggest that Hurricane Helene did not contribute to a surge in used vehicle demand or prices, contrasting with the effects previously observed after Hurricane Harvey.

What are the long-term expectations for used vehicle values?

Long-term expectations indicate a potential stabilization with projected gains in 2025 and 2026, suggesting that depreciation trends may ease compared to historical patterns.

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