Economic data at a glance (October 4)
US Dollar weekly
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24USD&...4982523747
US Dollar surged over the past few weeks to a 17-month high. This surge is primarily fueled by a global bond market selloff, a highly hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and growing financial panic in European markets.
Hawkish Fed Policy & Near-Decade High Yields
• Rate Hike Expectations: The Federal Reserve unanimously increased rates by 25 basis points in September. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's firm focus on combating persistent 3.4% inflation has led markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates.
• Yield Advantage: A severe global bond selloff pushed 10-year US Treasury yields past 5.3%, hitting multi-decade highs. This creates an attractive, high-yielding safe haven for foreign capital, directly strengthening the greenback against non-yielding assets.
European Debt Anxieties
• Fiscal Instability: Growing fears surrounding high French national debt and broader political turmoil have triggered panic in the European markets. France's public debt reached a record €3.596 trillion (US$4.08 trillion) at the end of June 2026, representing 119% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
• Widening Spreads: French 10-year government bond yields surged to their highest levels since 2002. The expanding yield gap between France and safe-haven Germany has caused investors to aggressively dump the Euro, funneling capital into the US dollar.
Geopolitical Turmoil & Safe Haven Status
• The Energy Shock: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, now in its eighth month, shows no signs of a ceasefire. With Brent crude oil stubbornly stuck above $100 a barrel, global inflation concerns have intensified.
• Energy Exporter Safety: Rising oil costs pressure major energy-importing economies. Investors are heavily scaling back exposure to the Euro and Japanese Yen, routing funds to the US as a secure energy and economic counterweight.
While the dollar has enjoyed a searing 3% rally since early September, it pulled back slightly midday following a weaker-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls report (showing an increase of only 29,000 jobs). This cooling jobs data has prompted some traders to pare back bets on an immediate follow-up rate hike at the late-October Fed meeting, causing minor intraday profit-taking on the greenback. However, the broader structural advantages of the US currency remain firmly underpinned by macro conditions.
The US economy added only 29K jobs in September
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2.20 percent in the second quarter of 2026
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual
US annual inflation rate at 3.4%
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
US 20-year Treasury Bond price will likely form a 3-year Double Bottom at 73 and rally back up to 90 level while the US Dollar index tops out and decline on weak job growth, fueling rally in mining stocks
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TLT&p=w...2963243620
Further hike in interest rate by the Fed could risk tanking the economy into a recession amid weak monthly job creation and weakening economic growth, resulting in accelerated national debts as tax revenue dwindles in a deep recession.
Gold price is pulling back to the Neckline on strength of the US Dollar, it should meet support at $4000.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24GOLD&...8609492691
Mining stocks move on their own merit depending on the ongoing operation of the company..
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US Dollar weekly
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24USD&...4982523747
US Dollar surged over the past few weeks to a 17-month high. This surge is primarily fueled by a global bond market selloff, a highly hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, and growing financial panic in European markets.
Hawkish Fed Policy & Near-Decade High Yields
• Rate Hike Expectations: The Federal Reserve unanimously increased rates by 25 basis points in September. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's firm focus on combating persistent 3.4% inflation has led markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates.
• Yield Advantage: A severe global bond selloff pushed 10-year US Treasury yields past 5.3%, hitting multi-decade highs. This creates an attractive, high-yielding safe haven for foreign capital, directly strengthening the greenback against non-yielding assets.
European Debt Anxieties
• Fiscal Instability: Growing fears surrounding high French national debt and broader political turmoil have triggered panic in the European markets. France's public debt reached a record €3.596 trillion (US$4.08 trillion) at the end of June 2026, representing 119% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
• Widening Spreads: French 10-year government bond yields surged to their highest levels since 2002. The expanding yield gap between France and safe-haven Germany has caused investors to aggressively dump the Euro, funneling capital into the US dollar.
Geopolitical Turmoil & Safe Haven Status
• The Energy Shock: The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, now in its eighth month, shows no signs of a ceasefire. With Brent crude oil stubbornly stuck above $100 a barrel, global inflation concerns have intensified.
• Energy Exporter Safety: Rising oil costs pressure major energy-importing economies. Investors are heavily scaling back exposure to the Euro and Japanese Yen, routing funds to the US as a secure energy and economic counterweight.
While the dollar has enjoyed a searing 3% rally since early September, it pulled back slightly midday following a weaker-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls report (showing an increase of only 29,000 jobs). This cooling jobs data has prompted some traders to pare back bets on an immediate follow-up rate hike at the late-October Fed meeting, causing minor intraday profit-taking on the greenback. However, the broader structural advantages of the US currency remain firmly underpinned by macro conditions.
The US economy added only 29K jobs in September
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2.20 percent in the second quarter of 2026
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual
US annual inflation rate at 3.4%
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
US 20-year Treasury Bond price will likely form a 3-year Double Bottom at 73 and rally back up to 90 level while the US Dollar index tops out and decline on weak job growth, fueling rally in mining stocks
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=TLT&p=w...2963243620
Further hike in interest rate by the Fed could risk tanking the economy into a recession amid weak monthly job creation and weakening economic growth, resulting in accelerated national debts as tax revenue dwindles in a deep recession.
Gold price is pulling back to the Neckline on strength of the US Dollar, it should meet support at $4000.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24GOLD&...8609492691
Mining stocks move on their own merit depending on the ongoing operation of the company..
.
.
.
