Yes, Dr Welch has many millions of shares in addtion to his 45 million in warrants, which he received to compensate him for the 6.5 million dollar surety bond for the Samsung deal that he backstopped. The man is widely viewed as a CytoDyn angel for having done that. He is an ardent CytoDyn supporter and would never sell his shares nor redeem his warrants (which have an exercise price of $0.10) in a way that would harm the company.
Just to clarify, the 30.6 warrant holders are actually in two groups:
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Paulson Investment Co., llc holds warrants for 34 million shares, which they received as a placement fee for having brokered the sale of warrants to other investors not affiliated with Paulson. Paulson's cost for these warrants was zero. Most of these warrants have a strike of 0.306, but 3 millon are at a strike of 0.16 and Paulson may choose to exercise these at whatever price meets their goals, probably by shorting them against the warrants, which locks in gains, removes price risk and doesn't require buyback in the open market.
The other group (45 million warrants) consists of certified investors, small funds, etc..who hold warrants they've acquired via Paulson. These folks paid cash up front for their warrants and like us are longs with an interest in share price appreciation. I agree this non-Paulson affiliated $0.306 group isn't likely to exercise their warrants with the share price only a few cents above the strike as it is now, and they are longs with skin in the game like us...but it must be said they're a varied group, and when they are going to exercise depends on their goals, whether short or longer-term.
The Paulson-held shares are the ones wihich need to concern us, IMO. Their goals as warrant holders are not those of retail longs like us. While the argument is being made that only a relatively few cents profit is to be had, one must remember that Paulson's cost basis is zero, and that 0.05 (or more, they do have millions of warrants further in the money) is pure profit to them. They can short the stock at 0.35, then deliver the shares later via cashless exercise for 0.306.or lower depending on the strike. No cash required, no open market buybacks. Done at scale (millions of shares) pennies add up.
Honestly, no one knows when Paulson will have exercised his warrants and fulfilled the above scenario. But his goals are different from ours as dedicated longs who are supportive of the company and wait for news to drive the share price...Paulson's goal is monetization, not appreciation, and it's when, not whether they will pursue this. They are likely to sell into strength, short against the warrants to lock in gains, and sell quickly without holding long term.
I'm not saying the sky is falling here, but I do think that it's silly not to be aware of how certain of these warrants can factor into the share price, at least for now. Not so long ago I was skeptical of this and was all-in blaming the shorts for all our SP troubles, but I've come to realize that Paulson is definitely in there as well, as some have beein saying.
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