That's the fun part of valuation of bio. You don't
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Posted On: 03/09/2022 6:23:58 PM
That's the fun part of valuation of bio. You don't need a lot of revenue to have high valuations. You just need sky high potential to out weigh the risk. Now many bios are very risky with drug trials that can go south at any time. Need a parlay of one success right after another for payday.
Inventiva not even there yet, just starting Phase III, but already valued $460M. Why valued so high?
What is the market size?
"The global non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) market generated $1,179 million in 2017, and is projected to reach $21,478 million by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 58.4% from 2021 to 2025. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is a form of liver disease that develops in patients who are not alcoholic or consume little alcohol."
Google a bunch of sites and the market size is all over the road, but let's say $2B right now.
So the market cap is about 4-5x the market size?
When will they have Phase III results?
"topline results, expected H2 2024"
Dam, investors gonna have to wait 2 1/2 years?
Keep in mind I literally picked a random company because I saw the news release. Bet a number of other ones are in the same boat.
So what about Todos?
What's the market look like for Covid?
What kind of longer-term market will the drug face once COVID-19 makes the likely shift from pandemic to endemic?
"Once the public health crisis transitions to the endemic stage, the need for treatment will persist. That will leave a $6 billion global market for oral antivirals, Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal estimates."
Ahh, that IF it even shifts to the endemic stage. Omicron BA.2 not just ready to take off, but already taking off in some countries doubling, even in the US.
Omicron BA.2 Spreads in U.S., Accounts for 11.6 Percent of New Cases—CDC - 3/9/22 AT 12:39 PM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/ba-2-spreads-us-11-6...nt-1686455
"Analysts with SVB Leerink expect $24.2 billion in revenue from Paxlovid this year"
$24B for a drug that has 'issues'. What a treatment worth with fewer issues or even no issue? That is natural and not a small molecule? At least not yet.
“ Small molecule drug development is a tricky business, and it involves as much art as science sometimes , so hats off to them.”
"“The Pfizer medicine is a remarkable contribution,” Bradner said. “I mean, to take an inhibitor designed for a completely different virus, and then boost what is a peptide-like inhibitor … with a second drug to prevent its disposal, I think it's a pretty heroic act of repurposing, and the activity of the molecule is quite breathtaking.”
I think it's pretty, pretty, pretty risky, but desperate times call for desperate measure?
Fierce JPM Week: Game recognizes game—Lilly, Novartis execs commend Pfizer on Paxlovid, but where does that leave them in the COVID market?
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/fierce-jp...-but-where
To answer you question, when Todos gets to $1B market cap, that is ~x40 from where it sits today which would put Todos at a $1.
That would me AMBS would hold $78M worth of Todos.
AMBS market cap is $3M. If the sp only, if it only gravitated to the market cap, then it is 26x higher. That would be $0.21 not counting anything else including potential.
Just google MANF and put a date range of 1 month and you always see a lot of research on it. Free research that AMBS doesn't have to pay for. Brain, Liver, etc the list goes on and on. The potential is massive but need a little dough to get it going.
Even helps with delirium
"Delirium is a serious disturbance in mental abilities that results in confused thinking and reduced awareness of the environment"
https://www.google.com/search?q=Mesencephalic...mp;dpr=2.5
Inventiva not even there yet, just starting Phase III, but already valued $460M. Why valued so high?
What is the market size?
"The global non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) market generated $1,179 million in 2017, and is projected to reach $21,478 million by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 58.4% from 2021 to 2025. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is a form of liver disease that develops in patients who are not alcoholic or consume little alcohol."
Google a bunch of sites and the market size is all over the road, but let's say $2B right now.
So the market cap is about 4-5x the market size?
When will they have Phase III results?
"topline results, expected H2 2024"
Dam, investors gonna have to wait 2 1/2 years?
Keep in mind I literally picked a random company because I saw the news release. Bet a number of other ones are in the same boat.
So what about Todos?
What's the market look like for Covid?
What kind of longer-term market will the drug face once COVID-19 makes the likely shift from pandemic to endemic?
"Once the public health crisis transitions to the endemic stage, the need for treatment will persist. That will leave a $6 billion global market for oral antivirals, Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal estimates."
Ahh, that IF it even shifts to the endemic stage. Omicron BA.2 not just ready to take off, but already taking off in some countries doubling, even in the US.
Omicron BA.2 Spreads in U.S., Accounts for 11.6 Percent of New Cases—CDC - 3/9/22 AT 12:39 PM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/ba-2-spreads-us-11-6...nt-1686455
"Analysts with SVB Leerink expect $24.2 billion in revenue from Paxlovid this year"
$24B for a drug that has 'issues'. What a treatment worth with fewer issues or even no issue? That is natural and not a small molecule? At least not yet.
“ Small molecule drug development is a tricky business, and it involves as much art as science sometimes , so hats off to them.”
"“The Pfizer medicine is a remarkable contribution,” Bradner said. “I mean, to take an inhibitor designed for a completely different virus, and then boost what is a peptide-like inhibitor … with a second drug to prevent its disposal, I think it's a pretty heroic act of repurposing, and the activity of the molecule is quite breathtaking.”
I think it's pretty, pretty, pretty risky, but desperate times call for desperate measure?
Fierce JPM Week: Game recognizes game—Lilly, Novartis execs commend Pfizer on Paxlovid, but where does that leave them in the COVID market?
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/fierce-jp...-but-where
To answer you question, when Todos gets to $1B market cap, that is ~x40 from where it sits today which would put Todos at a $1.
That would me AMBS would hold $78M worth of Todos.
AMBS market cap is $3M. If the sp only, if it only gravitated to the market cap, then it is 26x higher. That would be $0.21 not counting anything else including potential.
Just google MANF and put a date range of 1 month and you always see a lot of research on it. Free research that AMBS doesn't have to pay for. Brain, Liver, etc the list goes on and on. The potential is massive but need a little dough to get it going.
Even helps with delirium
"Delirium is a serious disturbance in mental abilities that results in confused thinking and reduced awareness of the environment"
https://www.google.com/search?q=Mesencephalic...mp;dpr=2.5
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