On the advice of my counsel I’ve been told I should post an otherwise private email I wrote this morning on the subject of company-wide silence and the optimism surrounding it. Can we poke holes in it? Are we looking at things incorrectly because of our seat on a gravy train with biscuit wheels? I don’t think so. Here’s what I wrote.
To me, there are a couple key factors that render just about any bashing viewpoint worthless.
Samsung hasn't been paid.
You can't afford to lose Samsung. While it would suck to have our existing inventory go to waste because of the FDA and our delay in getting to market, you can't risk having to start from scratch with another manufacturer moving forward. They've said it's a year or more just to get a facility approved and capable of manufacturing LL. Management thinks we'll need LL as soon as the end of the year thanks to approval(s). Even if we're on their back burner and won't be ready to have them start cranking out more LL until later this year, we need them paid in full. Cocked, locked, and ready to rock, as Dame Judy Dench famously says.
If you haven't paid Samsung but you've moved ahead with other costly endeavors, like paying the bond for Amarex, all signs point toward them making Samsung whole. They also said as much in an 8k back in early January, I think. Bankruptcy maneuvers wouldn't include financing your Amarex bond, continuing your trials in Brazil, and planning to make your overdue payments to your manufacturing partner.
Amarex bond was paid
From everything I know, and despite nothingspecial's insistence that this silence is all about Amarex, the only thing we're really getting out of this is their physical records (which Recknor worked with trial sites to rebuild anyway) and a chance to audit them. The audit will give us the ammunition to both, avoid paying what they claim we owe, and to go after damages for their piss poor efforts on our behalf. The company wouldn't have to stay silent because of that. They may have to stay silent ABOUT that, but not about Nash and Samsung and literally every other thing the company is up to that has nothing to do with Amarex. Maybe you could argue that there are some ties to Nash data that they want a closer look at before they release things to the public, but that doesn't really hold water. They released the 350mg and planned to release the 700mg all while they knew where the Amarex situation was headed.
Paying the bond, including the weird way in which they chose to do it, are clear signals that Cytodyn is continuing to work toward their goal of Leronlimab approvals.
Brazil trials are still ongoing and new hospitals have been joining
In what world where you have no money and are behind the eight ball do you continue to fund those trials? You could stop them and divert the money to Samsung or efforts to get the HIV BLA submitted. Or to start the LH trial, which could be a relatively cheap and quick route to an approval. In other words, you shut down efforts during a crisis and they aren't doing that. Except for delaying the LH trial, of course. If it’s actually delayed and not purposely held up, that is. But up through the end of the year they were working toward submitting new BTD requests for metastasis and Nash, all while talking about aggressively seeking partnerships. Nothing really happened between then and early to mid January that could have stopped it all dead in its tracks in lieu of bankruptcy.
Shares unsold plus the current share price
It's business 101 that you need money to run your business. They have lots of shares, even if those shares are worth less than at any point in the last year and a half. You have a tanking share price and you owe people money. Yes, it's not the most enviable situation. But they have shares to sell and data to release, and they've done neither. Either they are the world's dumbest people, or there' something brewing behind the scenes that they know will take care of those problems.
Any counterclaim to this silence being positive can be trumped with "then release the Nash data" or "sell some shares, that's what they're for." Because that's what you do when you need money and/or want to keep your share price from eroding.
I think the only reasonable scenario that involves a less rosy outlook than a big-time partnership, would be if this silence results in a shitty deal that doesn't really move the needle that much, and just barely keeps us afloat. “Thailand's 75th largest pharmaceutical company that nobody has heard of, which only has 11 employees, partners with Cytodyn to commercialize Leronlimab for Nash in Asia.”
You know, the Vyera of Thailand. Where the former CEO is in jail for running an illegal big game hunting business. Can you imagine all this shit going down and when they finally sign a deal it’s with Janky Pete’s Pfarma, based out of some weird combination grocery store/fishing supply/pharma business in some Thai village somewhere?
I can’t either. Well, I can, but only because we’ve witnessed a long streak of underwhelming “surprises”. There are a lot of companies like Vyera out there, and I worry more about a deal with an un-influential pharma company for a disappointing amount than I do no deal at all.
Or another bummer would be a buyout offer for $10 or less, which I still think isn't plausible when they can just license something and sell shares. But weirder things have happened. Maybe the board and management are just sick of the battle.
To me, there are a couple key factors that render just about any bashing viewpoint worthless.
Samsung hasn't been paid.
You can't afford to lose Samsung. While it would suck to have our existing inventory go to waste because of the FDA and our delay in getting to market, you can't risk having to start from scratch with another manufacturer moving forward. They've said it's a year or more just to get a facility approved and capable of manufacturing LL. Management thinks we'll need LL as soon as the end of the year thanks to approval(s). Even if we're on their back burner and won't be ready to have them start cranking out more LL until later this year, we need them paid in full. Cocked, locked, and ready to rock, as Dame Judy Dench famously says.
If you haven't paid Samsung but you've moved ahead with other costly endeavors, like paying the bond for Amarex, all signs point toward them making Samsung whole. They also said as much in an 8k back in early January, I think. Bankruptcy maneuvers wouldn't include financing your Amarex bond, continuing your trials in Brazil, and planning to make your overdue payments to your manufacturing partner.
Amarex bond was paid
From everything I know, and despite nothingspecial's insistence that this silence is all about Amarex, the only thing we're really getting out of this is their physical records (which Recknor worked with trial sites to rebuild anyway) and a chance to audit them. The audit will give us the ammunition to both, avoid paying what they claim we owe, and to go after damages for their piss poor efforts on our behalf. The company wouldn't have to stay silent because of that. They may have to stay silent ABOUT that, but not about Nash and Samsung and literally every other thing the company is up to that has nothing to do with Amarex. Maybe you could argue that there are some ties to Nash data that they want a closer look at before they release things to the public, but that doesn't really hold water. They released the 350mg and planned to release the 700mg all while they knew where the Amarex situation was headed.
Paying the bond, including the weird way in which they chose to do it, are clear signals that Cytodyn is continuing to work toward their goal of Leronlimab approvals.
Brazil trials are still ongoing and new hospitals have been joining
In what world where you have no money and are behind the eight ball do you continue to fund those trials? You could stop them and divert the money to Samsung or efforts to get the HIV BLA submitted. Or to start the LH trial, which could be a relatively cheap and quick route to an approval. In other words, you shut down efforts during a crisis and they aren't doing that. Except for delaying the LH trial, of course. If it’s actually delayed and not purposely held up, that is. But up through the end of the year they were working toward submitting new BTD requests for metastasis and Nash, all while talking about aggressively seeking partnerships. Nothing really happened between then and early to mid January that could have stopped it all dead in its tracks in lieu of bankruptcy.
Shares unsold plus the current share price
It's business 101 that you need money to run your business. They have lots of shares, even if those shares are worth less than at any point in the last year and a half. You have a tanking share price and you owe people money. Yes, it's not the most enviable situation. But they have shares to sell and data to release, and they've done neither. Either they are the world's dumbest people, or there' something brewing behind the scenes that they know will take care of those problems.
Any counterclaim to this silence being positive can be trumped with "then release the Nash data" or "sell some shares, that's what they're for." Because that's what you do when you need money and/or want to keep your share price from eroding.
I think the only reasonable scenario that involves a less rosy outlook than a big-time partnership, would be if this silence results in a shitty deal that doesn't really move the needle that much, and just barely keeps us afloat. “Thailand's 75th largest pharmaceutical company that nobody has heard of, which only has 11 employees, partners with Cytodyn to commercialize Leronlimab for Nash in Asia.”
You know, the Vyera of Thailand. Where the former CEO is in jail for running an illegal big game hunting business. Can you imagine all this shit going down and when they finally sign a deal it’s with Janky Pete’s Pfarma, based out of some weird combination grocery store/fishing supply/pharma business in some Thai village somewhere?
I can’t either. Well, I can, but only because we’ve witnessed a long streak of underwhelming “surprises”. There are a lot of companies like Vyera out there, and I worry more about a deal with an un-influential pharma company for a disappointing amount than I do no deal at all.
Or another bummer would be a buyout offer for $10 or less, which I still think isn't plausible when they can just license something and sell shares. But weirder things have happened. Maybe the board and management are just sick of the battle.
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