Good day to all. Have been reading carefully th
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Posted On: 03/10/2021 8:31:46 AM
Good day to all.
Have been reading carefully the 8-K (and avoiding as much as possible to look at my E*TRADE account
as some zeroes are missing.)
I appreciate CYDY's openness on publishing all the data. It helps everybody.
The numbers don't lie and a good autopsy is always a good exercise (both psychological and economical).
What went wrong ??? I will not bother anybody with tables. I corrected my assumptions with the data provided and discriminated with both Critical/Severe and Under/Over 65.
The bottom line: There were overall trial deaths of 20.8% (20.5% VX/21.6%) with a relative reduction of 5.3% for VX.
These are lackluster results. Yes this numbers improve if we get subsets like less than 65 years and so on. Yes we got a skew in this group. Yes Severe had an overall less death rate than critical and most patients were Severe.
But honestly, I was expecting better results, more so after DSMC said what it said at interim, I actually bought more shares then. What was DSCM thinking about, or what data they were looking at is a very interesting question.
There will be time for that. Now, what matters is the future.
We need to do 3 things:
1) Carry out the 140 patients trial with a different end point. If we target Length of Hospital stay stay we have an assured approval (that is what GILD did) and we have a p-value 0.005 (adjusted for stratification factor and age).
2) Is time to devote time an energy to other indications. HIV is "mature" (within CYDY) and Oncology is the big price. We should focus on this and not allow COVID impact negatively the other possibilities. We had a year of "vacation" and is time to go back and give a good push to other possibilities.
3) Focus on the financials. There will be some difficult "dire straits" in this area exacerbated with the SP weakness. This is the "price to pay" for our attempt to meet a death-reduction PE in COVID. We need to budget very carefully our resources to advance our many more indications, some of which will give us a large prize, with this I mean a very large prize. So let's get to work.
You all enjoy what will be a warm day here in the East coast.
Have been reading carefully the 8-K (and avoiding as much as possible to look at my E*TRADE account
as some zeroes are missing.) I appreciate CYDY's openness on publishing all the data. It helps everybody.
The numbers don't lie and a good autopsy is always a good exercise (both psychological and economical).
What went wrong ??? I will not bother anybody with tables. I corrected my assumptions with the data provided and discriminated with both Critical/Severe and Under/Over 65.
The bottom line: There were overall trial deaths of 20.8% (20.5% VX/21.6%) with a relative reduction of 5.3% for VX.
These are lackluster results. Yes this numbers improve if we get subsets like less than 65 years and so on. Yes we got a skew in this group. Yes Severe had an overall less death rate than critical and most patients were Severe.
But honestly, I was expecting better results, more so after DSMC said what it said at interim, I actually bought more shares then. What was DSCM thinking about, or what data they were looking at is a very interesting question.
There will be time for that. Now, what matters is the future.
We need to do 3 things:
1) Carry out the 140 patients trial with a different end point. If we target Length of Hospital stay stay we have an assured approval (that is what GILD did) and we have a p-value 0.005 (adjusted for stratification factor and age).
2) Is time to devote time an energy to other indications. HIV is "mature" (within CYDY) and Oncology is the big price. We should focus on this and not allow COVID impact negatively the other possibilities. We had a year of "vacation" and is time to go back and give a good push to other possibilities.
3) Focus on the financials. There will be some difficult "dire straits" in this area exacerbated with the SP weakness. This is the "price to pay" for our attempt to meet a death-reduction PE in COVID. We need to budget very carefully our resources to advance our many more indications, some of which will give us a large prize, with this I mean a very large prize. So let's get to work.
You all enjoy what will be a warm day here in the East coast.
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