FWIW, probably nothing, i think those numbers prov
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Posted On: 02/14/2021 10:14:47 PM
FWIW, probably nothing, i think those numbers prove there is no need for 42 day mortality in the CD12 trial.
"SOC at 28 days: 33% die"
That is the only number you need.
If placebo in CD12 is 33%, then CD12 is probably a grand slam home run with the ball gone completely out of the stadium and rolling down the avenue miles away.
Total death rate in CD12 is probably in the neighborhood of 90 which deaths is around 23%.
There is no way you can get 23% (90/394) overall mortality in CD12 unless either one of the following is true:
1) Leronlimab reduced mortality in the treatment arm.
2) Placebo arm mortality was lower than 33%.
In fact, if CD12 placebo arm mortality is 33% (43/393), the only way to get to 23% overall is for LL arm mortality to be 18% (47/262), which is a 45 % mortality reduction.
My conclusion is that with overall 90 deaths (23%) inside 28 days, the only way for CD12 to miss its primary endpoint is if the placebo arm has significantly lower mortality than 33%.
I guess lower SOC mortality than 33% is possible, but it certainly seems highly improbable.
"SOC at 28 days: 33% die"
That is the only number you need.
If placebo in CD12 is 33%, then CD12 is probably a grand slam home run with the ball gone completely out of the stadium and rolling down the avenue miles away.
Total death rate in CD12 is probably in the neighborhood of 90 which deaths is around 23%.
There is no way you can get 23% (90/394) overall mortality in CD12 unless either one of the following is true:
1) Leronlimab reduced mortality in the treatment arm.
2) Placebo arm mortality was lower than 33%.
In fact, if CD12 placebo arm mortality is 33% (43/393), the only way to get to 23% overall is for LL arm mortality to be 18% (47/262), which is a 45 % mortality reduction.
My conclusion is that with overall 90 deaths (23%) inside 28 days, the only way for CD12 to miss its primary endpoint is if the placebo arm has significantly lower mortality than 33%.
I guess lower SOC mortality than 33% is possible, but it certainly seems highly improbable.
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