For anyone new to GNBT/NGIO, I'd like to post a si
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Posted On: 02/03/2021 7:46:07 AM
For anyone new to GNBT/NGIO, I'd like to post a simple "under-valuation" exercise for the current GNBT share price.
- After yesterday's NGIO share count reduction, GNBT owns approximately 64MM of the ~100MM total shares of NGIO. An IPO of an unknown # of NGIO shares will likely occur within 6 weeks, and those shares will begin trading on NASDAQ.
- A recent independent valuation put the value of NGIO at "more than $500MM". This would imply a value of $5+/sh. For discussion purposes, let's assume Joe (CEO of both companies) will be able to market the NGIO IPO shares for more than that valuation based on further progress on the "Complete Vaccine" for Covid since the $500MM valuation was calculated, investors' ability to look forward on the potential of NGIO's Covid/cancer IP and accept a certain level of risk for that potential reward, the low float of shares that will be available for trading, etc. For discussion purposes, I will assume Joe will be able to sell NGIO IPO shares for $7.50.
- If we estimate that Joe will IPO only as many NGIO shares as he needs to in order to cover "going concern"/working capital for NGIO and working capital needed to pay debt, finish acquisitions, and start up the various subsidiaries of GNBT, maybe that equates to ~9MM shares at $7.50. Joe would raise $67.5MM.
- That would leave ~55MM NGIO shares on the books @ GNBT. There are currently ~110MM GNBT shares, so that would mean each share of GNBT would effectively "own" approximately 0.50 share of NGIO. At an NGIO IPO price of $7.50, that would equate to ~$3.75.
- So if we assume Joe can IPO NGIO @ $7.50, shares of GNBT that can currently be bought for $0.477 are really worth $3.75. That implies a $0 additional valuation for: any price appreciation of NGIO shares once they trade on the Naz; the 100%-owned/FDA approved/VA-authorized wound care product Excellagen (which was just rolling out as Covid hit), the currently-enrolling/Medicare-reimbursed Chronic Care/Pain Management program of 100%-owned NuGen Health; the AZ partnership for scheduled care of ~65k people that have a high-rate of diabetes and other chronic issues; AltuCell, a company that may have a cure for diabetes (presuming that deal becomes final once the fees due are raised thru the NGIO IPO); rollout of Medisource and Pantheon devices leveraging the planned MRO; clinical testing of the wholly-owned treatment for Crohn's disease and the Oral-Lyn inhalable insulin for diabetes; etc.
- Even if we look at a worst-case scenario for the NGIO IPO, the shares will be coming out of the gate at $5/share, given the independent valuation @ $500MM+ and OS of 100MM. That was the minimum target for Joe's share count reduction yesterday (from 400MM shares to 100MM) in order to achieve a $5/sh listing price for the IPO on the Naz. Even that minimum would put each share of GNBT at $2.50 each based solely on "ownership" of 1/2 of an NGIO share.
So any way we look at it, GNBT shares, currently languishing on the OTC, are being grossly undervalued. Yet the price has continued to slowly rise from ~$0.18 to $0.477 as we approach Friday's conference call. If you have watched the trading action lately, you can see that even if the bid drops, the price does not fall for long, and the volume remains relatively low: No one who knows GNBT/NGIO wants to let go of their shares at these prices.
With the low float, it won't take many buyers after the broad update of Covid testing progress, NGIO IPO, and all other things Generex/NGIO to push the GNBT share price up to a level that is more consistent with the value these companies currently hold.
I own a relatively large number of shares, but I will continue to accumulate more as long as this undervaluation persists.
I certainly hope some of the new investors who come to this site will take advantage as well. Please join us for the conference call on Friday @ 9:00 Eastern time.
In the meantime, please also feel free to ask questions on the board. There are many people here who have deep knowledge of GNBT's IP, subsidiaries, products, history, etc. and will be happy to point you to resources that can help you with your due diligence as you consider building a position in our stock that holds so much potential.
- After yesterday's NGIO share count reduction, GNBT owns approximately 64MM of the ~100MM total shares of NGIO. An IPO of an unknown # of NGIO shares will likely occur within 6 weeks, and those shares will begin trading on NASDAQ.
- A recent independent valuation put the value of NGIO at "more than $500MM". This would imply a value of $5+/sh. For discussion purposes, let's assume Joe (CEO of both companies) will be able to market the NGIO IPO shares for more than that valuation based on further progress on the "Complete Vaccine" for Covid since the $500MM valuation was calculated, investors' ability to look forward on the potential of NGIO's Covid/cancer IP and accept a certain level of risk for that potential reward, the low float of shares that will be available for trading, etc. For discussion purposes, I will assume Joe will be able to sell NGIO IPO shares for $7.50.
- If we estimate that Joe will IPO only as many NGIO shares as he needs to in order to cover "going concern"/working capital for NGIO and working capital needed to pay debt, finish acquisitions, and start up the various subsidiaries of GNBT, maybe that equates to ~9MM shares at $7.50. Joe would raise $67.5MM.
- That would leave ~55MM NGIO shares on the books @ GNBT. There are currently ~110MM GNBT shares, so that would mean each share of GNBT would effectively "own" approximately 0.50 share of NGIO. At an NGIO IPO price of $7.50, that would equate to ~$3.75.
- So if we assume Joe can IPO NGIO @ $7.50, shares of GNBT that can currently be bought for $0.477 are really worth $3.75. That implies a $0 additional valuation for: any price appreciation of NGIO shares once they trade on the Naz; the 100%-owned/FDA approved/VA-authorized wound care product Excellagen (which was just rolling out as Covid hit), the currently-enrolling/Medicare-reimbursed Chronic Care/Pain Management program of 100%-owned NuGen Health; the AZ partnership for scheduled care of ~65k people that have a high-rate of diabetes and other chronic issues; AltuCell, a company that may have a cure for diabetes (presuming that deal becomes final once the fees due are raised thru the NGIO IPO); rollout of Medisource and Pantheon devices leveraging the planned MRO; clinical testing of the wholly-owned treatment for Crohn's disease and the Oral-Lyn inhalable insulin for diabetes; etc.
- Even if we look at a worst-case scenario for the NGIO IPO, the shares will be coming out of the gate at $5/share, given the independent valuation @ $500MM+ and OS of 100MM. That was the minimum target for Joe's share count reduction yesterday (from 400MM shares to 100MM) in order to achieve a $5/sh listing price for the IPO on the Naz. Even that minimum would put each share of GNBT at $2.50 each based solely on "ownership" of 1/2 of an NGIO share.
So any way we look at it, GNBT shares, currently languishing on the OTC, are being grossly undervalued. Yet the price has continued to slowly rise from ~$0.18 to $0.477 as we approach Friday's conference call. If you have watched the trading action lately, you can see that even if the bid drops, the price does not fall for long, and the volume remains relatively low: No one who knows GNBT/NGIO wants to let go of their shares at these prices.
With the low float, it won't take many buyers after the broad update of Covid testing progress, NGIO IPO, and all other things Generex/NGIO to push the GNBT share price up to a level that is more consistent with the value these companies currently hold.
I own a relatively large number of shares, but I will continue to accumulate more as long as this undervaluation persists.
I certainly hope some of the new investors who come to this site will take advantage as well. Please join us for the conference call on Friday @ 9:00 Eastern time.
In the meantime, please also feel free to ask questions on the board. There are many people here who have deep knowledge of GNBT's IP, subsidiaries, products, history, etc. and will be happy to point you to resources that can help you with your due diligence as you consider building a position in our stock that holds so much potential.
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