TechGuru wrote:
I have spent the past month considering the thesis of leronlimab being used for critical cases of influenza and pneumonia. I've been operating under the assumption that when the current COVID-based trials confirm leronlimab's effect on the cytokine storm and its immuno-restorative properties, healthcare professionals around the world would quickly connect-the-dots and use it for severe cases of influenza and pneumonia.
Today's call was extremely helpful for myriad reasons, not the least of which was that we now know that the company is considering these targets as 'front burner' indications. Frankly, if things progress as we all hope, I would anticipate very little friction in getting leronlimab approved for these indications.
In an effort to explore your back-of-the-napkin calculation, here are some data points I've accumulated over the past month:
CDC.gov
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm#table1
World Health Organization
Link: https://www.who.int/influenza/Global_Influenz...h.pdf?ua=1
World Health Organization
Link: https://www.medscape.com/answers/967822-23537...-pneumonia
Wikipedia
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_pneumonia
American Thoracic Society
Link: https://www.thoracic.org/patients/patient-res...-facts.pdf
The Journal of Infectious Diseases
Link: https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/doi/10.1...53/5372488
CDC.gov
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pneumonia.htm
As I've been working on this for the past month, I have many more links -- but you get the idea.
In terms of gross numbers, which don't factor-in drug availability, industry uptake, or market penetration -- I think we're probably looking at 5M global cases of severe cases of influenza. Not sure the use of leronlimab would only be limited to severe cases -- but you have to draw the line somewhere.
In terms of pneumonia, that's a bit harder with the metrics are immediately available. Research and Markets has performed other market estimates for CytoDyn (look at the small print in their slide deck), and they'd be much better at this than me. However, conservative spit-balling leads me to guess 50M. And again, not sure the use of leronlimab would only be limited to severe cases -- but you have to draw the line somewhere.
So, the ballpark global numbers for both indications might be 55M -- but I would be happy to receive input from anyone else.
I'm not sure the unit dose pricing or average dosages per individual you are projecting, however, you stated:
I've played with these numbers for too many hours over the past month, but assuming CytoDyn is able to secure a commercialization partner (if that's even necessary) who provides a 50-50 split of Net Sales relating to these two indications, the following metrics might be necessary to determine the stock price for "influenza only".
$50 Share Price
Conservative P/E ratio of 10x
Outstanding Shares of 492M (which we all know should be listed as 700M)
So, a little bit of simple math suggests the following:
Gross Revenue would need to be $5B
50% Net Sales to CytoDyn would be $2.5B
Earnings Per Share (using 492M shares) would be $5.08
Conservative P/E Multiple of 10x puts the price per share at $51
And finally, with ~5M severe influenza patients per year, the average cost of leronlimab to each patient would need to be $1,000.
I banged this out pretty quickly, so there may be some mistakes.
However, is that what you are projecting?
And, of course, this number does not include the much larger pneumonia number.
TechGuru,Quote:But, maybe the most interesting part was that of Influenza (a $6 Billion/year market). Dr. L said that we that will be with us for long time. I have goosebumps with only thinking about this. A back-of-napkin calculation yields more than $50 dollars SP (influenza only).
I have spent the past month considering the thesis of leronlimab being used for critical cases of influenza and pneumonia. I've been operating under the assumption that when the current COVID-based trials confirm leronlimab's effect on the cytokine storm and its immuno-restorative properties, healthcare professionals around the world would quickly connect-the-dots and use it for severe cases of influenza and pneumonia.
Today's call was extremely helpful for myriad reasons, not the least of which was that we now know that the company is considering these targets as 'front burner' indications. Frankly, if things progress as we all hope, I would anticipate very little friction in getting leronlimab approved for these indications.
In an effort to explore your back-of-the-napkin calculation, here are some data points I've accumulated over the past month:
CDC.gov
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm#table1
Quote:The overall [US] burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses , 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations , and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths
World Health Organization
Link: https://www.who.int/influenza/Global_Influenz...h.pdf?ua=1
Quote:Influenza is a serious global health threat that impacts all countries: every year, there are an estimated 1
billion cases, 3-5 million severe cases , and 290,000-650,000 influenza-related respiratory deaths
worldwide.
World Health Organization
Link: https://www.medscape.com/answers/967822-23537...-pneumonia
Quote:Pneumonia and other lower respiratory tract infections are the leading cause of death worldwide. The WHO Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group estimated the median global incidence of clinical pneumonia to be 0.28 episodes per child-year. This equates to an annual incidence of 150.7 million new cases, of which 11-20 million (7-13%) are severe enough to require hospital admission. Ninety-five percent of all episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children worldwide occur in developing countries.
Approximately 150 million new cases of pneumonia occur annually among children younger than 5 years worldwide, accounting for approximately 10-20 million hospitalizations. A WHO Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group publication cited the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children younger than 5 years in developed countries as approximately 0.
Wikipedia
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_pneumonia
Quote:Pneumonia is a common illness affecting approximately 450 million people a year and occurring in all parts of the world. It is a major cause of death among all age groups, resulting in 1.4 million deaths in 2010 (7% of the world's yearly total) and was the 4th leading cause of death in the world in 2016, resulting in 3.0 million deaths worldwide.
American Thoracic Society
Link: https://www.thoracic.org/patients/patient-res...-facts.pdf
Quote:There are 120 million episodes of pneumonia per year in children under 5, over 10% of which (14 million) progress to severe episodes. There was an estimated 880,000 deaths from pneumonia in children under the age of five in 2016. Most were less than 2 years of age.
Quote:Pneumonia is a huge burden on our healthcare systems. In the US, pneumonia was one of the top ten most expensive conditions seen during inpatient hospitalizations. In 2013, pneumonia had an aggregate cost of nearly $9.5 billion for 960,000 hospital stays .
The Journal of Infectious Diseases
Link: https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/doi/10.1...53/5372488
Quote:We estimated that, in 2015, 6.8 million episodes (uncertainty range [UR], 5.8–8.0 episodes) of clinical pneumonia resulted in hospital admissions of older adults worldwide.
CDC.gov
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pneumonia.htm
Quote:Number of [US] visits to emergency departments with pneumonia as the primary diagnosis: 1.3 million
As I've been working on this for the past month, I have many more links -- but you get the idea.
In terms of gross numbers, which don't factor-in drug availability, industry uptake, or market penetration -- I think we're probably looking at 5M global cases of severe cases of influenza. Not sure the use of leronlimab would only be limited to severe cases -- but you have to draw the line somewhere.
In terms of pneumonia, that's a bit harder with the metrics are immediately available. Research and Markets has performed other market estimates for CytoDyn (look at the small print in their slide deck), and they'd be much better at this than me. However, conservative spit-balling leads me to guess 50M. And again, not sure the use of leronlimab would only be limited to severe cases -- but you have to draw the line somewhere.
So, the ballpark global numbers for both indications might be 55M -- but I would be happy to receive input from anyone else.
I'm not sure the unit dose pricing or average dosages per individual you are projecting, however, you stated:
Quote:A back-of-napkin calculation yields more than $50 dollars SP (influenza only).
I've played with these numbers for too many hours over the past month, but assuming CytoDyn is able to secure a commercialization partner (if that's even necessary) who provides a 50-50 split of Net Sales relating to these two indications, the following metrics might be necessary to determine the stock price for "influenza only".
$50 Share Price
Conservative P/E ratio of 10x
Outstanding Shares of 492M (which we all know should be listed as 700M)
So, a little bit of simple math suggests the following:
Gross Revenue would need to be $5B
50% Net Sales to CytoDyn would be $2.5B
Earnings Per Share (using 492M shares) would be $5.08
Conservative P/E Multiple of 10x puts the price per share at $51
And finally, with ~5M severe influenza patients per year, the average cost of leronlimab to each patient would need to be $1,000.
I banged this out pretty quickly, so there may be some mistakes.
However, is that what you are projecting?
And, of course, this number does not include the much larger pneumonia number.
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