I posted this in response to a similar discussion
Post# of 154346
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Posted On: 12/09/2019 2:05:37 PM
I posted this in response to a similar discussion over on ihub. reposting here to summarize my thoughts on why no deals to date.
"I think it's pretty clear how CYDY got where it is today, but it's less clear to me, taking all of the history as a given, what to do about it now.
Call it a series of unfortunate events, but management decisions over the past 5 years regarding financing/uplisting/deal-making, self-inflicted wounds (e.g., whatever it was that happened with Pestell), and additional FDA requests (e.g., 700 mg data) have resulted in CYDY possessing a drug with huge market potential while trading on the OTC at $0.30 with next to no cash in the bank.
Tracing the history, it's easy to understand where CYDY is today. And, since no one pays more for anything than they have to (the buyouts referenced today had 100-200% premiums over current SP) AND CYDY has no leverage, it's also pretty easy to understand why no BO for CYDY will happen, if at all, until the SP organically approaches a place where a BO premium might come closer to truly valuing the potential here.
[EDIT: I know some believe NP has a role in the fact that no deals have occurred to date. Maybe, maybe not. My point in the above paragraph was to point out that simple math can explain why no deal for CYDY has happened. The company is valued too low and worth too much! If the chasm between the two was great enough, no deal. What you can say, I think, is that NP, as CEO, bears some responsibility for the former issue (valued too low)]
It's also easy to imagine that CYDY's potential partner in "the deal" could be stringing the company along, waiting for a chance to negotiate better terms given the leverage imbalance. Not saying I believe or hope that is happening, just that it's easy, as a theoretical matter, to spot the possibility.
What to do about it now? I have no idea.
Uplisting requires cash, and a lot of it, and CYDY can't raise it on terms that any of us would like.
Taking a drug to market requires cash, and a lot of it. Again, CYDY can't raise it on terms any of us would like.
Which leaves small raises to keep the lights on while a deal is (hopefully) finalized.
So I think there's an argument that, taking all of the history as a given, CYDY management is employing something like an optimal strategy at the moment GIVEN the company's current options.
With that said, I think most of the frustration with CYDY management has less to do with strategy NOW than with strategy over the last 3-5 years that has led the company to where it is NOW.
As two quick points of frustration, I will never understand the great R/S debacle of 2018 (not arguing for or against, just how it was handled), and I will never understand sending a blast e-mail to shareholders asking for money. Both of those decisions tanked the SP for no apparent gain whatsoever.
I remain hopeful that CYDY management can pull off the current plan (i.e., the deal). I would be as happy as any shareholder!
Like Saltz and others, however, I remain skeptical and VERY worried about what it looks like if no deal comes to pass. Anyone have the stomach for $0.25 raises with full warrant coverage? $0.20? That is what the alternative looks like.
Best of luck to all of us. Hoping to close 2019 strong."
"I think it's pretty clear how CYDY got where it is today, but it's less clear to me, taking all of the history as a given, what to do about it now.
Call it a series of unfortunate events, but management decisions over the past 5 years regarding financing/uplisting/deal-making, self-inflicted wounds (e.g., whatever it was that happened with Pestell), and additional FDA requests (e.g., 700 mg data) have resulted in CYDY possessing a drug with huge market potential while trading on the OTC at $0.30 with next to no cash in the bank.
Tracing the history, it's easy to understand where CYDY is today. And, since no one pays more for anything than they have to (the buyouts referenced today had 100-200% premiums over current SP) AND CYDY has no leverage, it's also pretty easy to understand why no BO for CYDY will happen, if at all, until the SP organically approaches a place where a BO premium might come closer to truly valuing the potential here.
[EDIT: I know some believe NP has a role in the fact that no deals have occurred to date. Maybe, maybe not. My point in the above paragraph was to point out that simple math can explain why no deal for CYDY has happened. The company is valued too low and worth too much! If the chasm between the two was great enough, no deal. What you can say, I think, is that NP, as CEO, bears some responsibility for the former issue (valued too low)]
It's also easy to imagine that CYDY's potential partner in "the deal" could be stringing the company along, waiting for a chance to negotiate better terms given the leverage imbalance. Not saying I believe or hope that is happening, just that it's easy, as a theoretical matter, to spot the possibility.
What to do about it now? I have no idea.
Uplisting requires cash, and a lot of it, and CYDY can't raise it on terms that any of us would like.
Taking a drug to market requires cash, and a lot of it. Again, CYDY can't raise it on terms any of us would like.
Which leaves small raises to keep the lights on while a deal is (hopefully) finalized.
So I think there's an argument that, taking all of the history as a given, CYDY management is employing something like an optimal strategy at the moment GIVEN the company's current options.
With that said, I think most of the frustration with CYDY management has less to do with strategy NOW than with strategy over the last 3-5 years that has led the company to where it is NOW.
As two quick points of frustration, I will never understand the great R/S debacle of 2018 (not arguing for or against, just how it was handled), and I will never understand sending a blast e-mail to shareholders asking for money. Both of those decisions tanked the SP for no apparent gain whatsoever.
I remain hopeful that CYDY management can pull off the current plan (i.e., the deal). I would be as happy as any shareholder!
Like Saltz and others, however, I remain skeptical and VERY worried about what it looks like if no deal comes to pass. Anyone have the stomach for $0.25 raises with full warrant coverage? $0.20? That is what the alternative looks like.
Best of luck to all of us. Hoping to close 2019 strong."
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