ClosetInvestor, In responding a similar inquiry
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Posted On: 11/15/2019 6:10:04 PM
Re: ClosetInvestor #11022
ClosetInvestor,
In responding a similar inquiry on the other board I am here copying part of my comments (well, a bit broader) but nevertheless you might find it informative.
There is also ample literature in the subject depicting CCR5 importance in several types of cancer, and therefore the subsequent potential effect of inhibitors on its control.
As we are finding out that Leronlimab has a therapeutic effect in mTNBC (and perhaps BC in general), there is a strong an indication that very good thinks are to come, both for patients and, for us, long shareholders.
Now to your question on revenue: some studies estimate the market size for the global 27 cancer blockbuster to surpass US$ 120 billion by 2025. Now, let’s assume that Leronlimab can effectively stop the metastasis of cancer. IMHO, It will immediately enter the stage and displace some on the list below.
Let’s be very conservative and assume that Leronlimab simply adds up to the list. We have, for example Ibrance had $4.1 Billion in sales last year as a typical example ($120B/28=$4.28B, app. Ibrance sales).
So, let’s assume $4.1 Billion in sales. 470 Million Shares (376756444 stock plus 178591849 of Options + Warrants plus 7413000 Convertibles Preferred plus 7238707 “others”).
We have Sales/Share= $4.1 Billion/470 Million = $8.723
And the stock price would be: Sales/Share * Price/Sales term.
Taking for the P/S term the mean of the biotech industry as 12.91 https://csimarket.com/Industry/industry_valua...p;ind=801) we have:
Estimated Stock Price = 12.91*$8.723 = $112.61
Global Top 27 Cancer Blockbuster Drugs:
Imbruvica (Ibrutinib)
Revlimid (Lenalidomide)
Pomalyst/Imnovid (Pomalidomide)
Keytruda (Pembrolizumab)
Herceptin (Trastuzumab)
Avastin (Bevacizumab)
MabThera/Rituxan (Rituximab)
Perjeta (Pertuzumab)
Opdivo (Nivolumab)
Sprycel (Dasatinib)
Ibrance (Palbociclib)
Zytiga (Abiraterone acetate)
Tagrisso (Osimertinib)
Darzalex (Daratumumab)
Xtandi (Enzalutamide)
Jakafi/Jakavi (Ruxolitinib Phosphate)
Yervoy (Ipilimumab)
Alimta (Pemetrexed)
Gleevec/Glivec (Imatinib Mesylate)
Velcade (Bortezomib)
Tasigna (Nilotinib)
Xgeva (Denosumab)
Afinitor/Votubia (Everolimus)
Neulasta (Pegfilgrastim)
Exjade Jadenu (Deferasirox)
Sandostatin (Octreotide Acetate)
Faslodex (Fulvestrant)
This is a ball-park estimate. Now, if Lero probes to be a "general" oncology drug … well just use your imagination while you sip some whiskey in Thailand or Vegas.
On the subject of what should we do ??? Simply carry forward until the day (it will come) than BP can not longer stand it and come to talk (hat in hand) to NP so he can show them how arrogant he wants to feel and how much is everything worth.
No deals for now on oncology. The potential is just to great to let it pass before the real value is, shall I say, harvested.
Have a great weekend.
In responding a similar inquiry on the other board I am here copying part of my comments (well, a bit broader) but nevertheless you might find it informative.
There is also ample literature in the subject depicting CCR5 importance in several types of cancer, and therefore the subsequent potential effect of inhibitors on its control.
As we are finding out that Leronlimab has a therapeutic effect in mTNBC (and perhaps BC in general), there is a strong an indication that very good thinks are to come, both for patients and, for us, long shareholders.
Now to your question on revenue: some studies estimate the market size for the global 27 cancer blockbuster to surpass US$ 120 billion by 2025. Now, let’s assume that Leronlimab can effectively stop the metastasis of cancer. IMHO, It will immediately enter the stage and displace some on the list below.
Let’s be very conservative and assume that Leronlimab simply adds up to the list. We have, for example Ibrance had $4.1 Billion in sales last year as a typical example ($120B/28=$4.28B, app. Ibrance sales).
So, let’s assume $4.1 Billion in sales. 470 Million Shares (376756444 stock plus 178591849 of Options + Warrants plus 7413000 Convertibles Preferred plus 7238707 “others”).
We have Sales/Share= $4.1 Billion/470 Million = $8.723
And the stock price would be: Sales/Share * Price/Sales term.
Taking for the P/S term the mean of the biotech industry as 12.91 https://csimarket.com/Industry/industry_valua...p;ind=801) we have:
Estimated Stock Price = 12.91*$8.723 = $112.61
Global Top 27 Cancer Blockbuster Drugs:
Imbruvica (Ibrutinib)
Revlimid (Lenalidomide)
Pomalyst/Imnovid (Pomalidomide)
Keytruda (Pembrolizumab)
Herceptin (Trastuzumab)
Avastin (Bevacizumab)
MabThera/Rituxan (Rituximab)
Perjeta (Pertuzumab)
Opdivo (Nivolumab)
Sprycel (Dasatinib)
Ibrance (Palbociclib)
Zytiga (Abiraterone acetate)
Tagrisso (Osimertinib)
Darzalex (Daratumumab)
Xtandi (Enzalutamide)
Jakafi/Jakavi (Ruxolitinib Phosphate)
Yervoy (Ipilimumab)
Alimta (Pemetrexed)
Gleevec/Glivec (Imatinib Mesylate)
Velcade (Bortezomib)
Tasigna (Nilotinib)
Xgeva (Denosumab)
Afinitor/Votubia (Everolimus)
Neulasta (Pegfilgrastim)
Exjade Jadenu (Deferasirox)
Sandostatin (Octreotide Acetate)
Faslodex (Fulvestrant)
This is a ball-park estimate. Now, if Lero probes to be a "general" oncology drug … well just use your imagination while you sip some whiskey in Thailand or Vegas.
On the subject of what should we do ??? Simply carry forward until the day (it will come) than BP can not longer stand it and come to talk (hat in hand) to NP so he can show them how arrogant he wants to feel and how much is everything worth.
No deals for now on oncology. The potential is just to great to let it pass before the real value is, shall I say, harvested.
Have a great weekend.
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