Uceris has very low remission rates compared to B-
Post# of 72440
https://www.uceris.com/tablet/hcp/uceris-efficacy
It's around 17% for mild-moderate UC. It does next to nothing for more severe cases.
B-UP rates will likely be 80%+ for UP/UPS.
Uceris does have the convenience of a pill so, for the < 1/5 people that it works for, it may be the better option. For the 4/5 others and the moderate-severe cases, B-UP may be the better option.
So $196M/year x 4 = $784M/year.
That's a lot of cheddar for a company with a market cap of $50M.
I think $10-20M upfront + trial funding on that isn't too far off. That could very easily bring us to $1+.