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  4. Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX) Message Board

Total revenue from just B-OM = $72M-$144M ($600m-$

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Post# of 72447
(Total Views: 343)
Posted On: 04/16/2019 10:33:09 PM
Posted By: Lemoncat
Re: petemantx #55188
Quote:
Total revenue from just B-OM = $72M-$144M ($600m-$1.2B x 12% royalty)

Annual IPIX Earnings using only revenue from B-OM = $52M-$124M (deducting $20M/yr expenses)

Earnings per Share = .236 to .472 ($52M-$124M / 220M shares)

IPIX stock price using royalty based IONS PE of 41 = $9.67- $19.35

IPIX stock price using biotech average PE of 145 = $34.22 - $68.45



Mo's numbers are great if everything pans out. But he left out the probabilities...


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pharmaceut...U920110214

Quote:
Approval applications were filed for 55 percent of the drugs that made it to Phase III testing, and 80 percent of those gained eventual approval, although only about half were approved on their initial FDA review.



so 55% x 0.8 x 0.5 = 0.22 multiplier on chance of phase 3 success + NDA approval on first pass.

IPIX stock price using royalty based IONS PE of 41 = $9.67- $19.35 * 0.22 = $2.13 - $4.26
IPIX stock price using biotech average PE of 145 = $34.22 - $68.45 * 0.22 = $7.55 - $15.06

The numbers come back down to earth once you factor in that multiplier. I think that $2.13-$4.26 range is exactly where we will settle in after our first partnership. A very healthy valuation for a $75M upfront partnership with a 12% royalty.

This also assumes we get full credit for future royalties by securing enough cash to sustain us for the foreseeable future. We also need enough momentum to get us onto NASDAQ where the manipulation will be lesser and institutional buyers can purchase us. You can't sustain a PE of 41 let alone 145 on OTCQB very easily without attracting shorts.

It is still easy to see how undervalued we are if we secure funding even if you divide the pared down estimates by 2-4 (assume $150M-$300M/yr B-OM revenues). A compelling buy for anyone with high-risk capital when using actual conservative estimates.



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