Still trying to get the real word out on sites run by NR types:
One area on this board that has been hashed and rehashed for years is the amount of money IPIX is worth, what individual indications are worth, and what amount of money will IPIX need to move forward our various drugs and indications.
One poster today said that Leo must secure a first partnership of AT LEAST $100MM to be able to keep everyone's dreams alive. I would ask him to justify his numbers but I know an answer would not be forthcoming.
Looking at the current picture, let's assume that the first partnership is only going to be for Oral Mucositis. This indication is going to be among the smallest, if not the smallest, of any type of indication IPIX will go after. The only smaller may be Kevetrin going after very rare cancers, as retinoblastoma, which almost exclusively attacks the retina of small children and results in them losing the eye or eyes. This is the type of godsend Kevetrin could be for parents and children but NR is intent on trying to destroy IPIX simply to add money to their pockets. But as for Oral Mucositis, it is going after a target of roughly $1.2MM/ yr in head and neck cancers and possibly up to $2.5MM per year when other types of cancers are thrown in that have a high rate of OM currently. At the end of this post I have attached a great post from another site posted by a good friend showing what OM should be worth to the IPIX SP based on extremely conservative projections as to cost, percentage of market capture, IPIX yearly expenses, etc.
Remember that the average cost to bring a drug to market currently is about $1B and 10-12 years. A great deal of that is incurred in pre-clinical trials to formulate a drug that should perform acceptably on humans, the balance being for clinical trials, etc. What is not given a dollar figure is the RISK of bringing a drug to market as the success rate is woefully low and makes startup biotechs the highest risk stocks possible. This also makes them the highest reward possible (percentage wise)as so few become profitable or even remain in existence. It is well known the predatory NR groups target startup biotechs heavily as their expenses are so high and their first revenues are so far down the line.
Oral Mucositis clinical trials have already passed the usual impassable hump in achieving success as the vast majority of drugs never make it thru Phase 2. Of those that do, the vast majority make it thru Phase 3. Now in the overall scheme of things, how much of the $1B cost should a BP be willing to put up to get a drug that has already succeeded in getting thru a Phase 2? How much extra value for a drug that has a rock solid safety background so that no long list of precautions have to be given when marketing such drugs (listen to any drug on TV and the side effects sound nearly worse than the illness or condition)?
Once IPIX signs a deal with a BP, IPIX is pretty well finished with the future development of the drug for OM as the BP inherits the responsibility of taking the drug from Phase 3 to commerciality. Seems only fair to me considering IPIX carried the full weight of expenses AND THE TOTAL RISK thru the most dangerous phases of clinical trials. So once we hand OM over to a BP partner, what costs does IPIX have to cover? I see having to pay for 6 or so employees, an office lease, and whatever lab work they do for indications other than OM to forward them to a time when they can be turned over to a BP. Will they need $100MM to do this? They haven't used but a fraction of this amount to have moved 3 drugs thru Phase 2, so why the need for so much? That is why I believe this sum was pulled out of thin air as a scare tactic.
Our next steps forward appear to be a pill for IBD, a pill for Kevetrin, and then most likely topical creams for B dermatology indications (eczema and acne and supportive rosa (sp?)).
IPIX should command a very substantial upfront payment for OM alone, enough IMO to be able to forward the next movements forward regarding the pills, and once they come about we are talking disruptive numbers worth of value. After the first deal, we will also be able to uplist to NASDQ or NYSE, whichever we choose.
There are reasons we get 70+ posts a day trying to instill fear in shareholders to sell their shares at the laughable share price. Think about it. While you are thinking, remember that all our other indications are for targets in the $20B/yr+ range so if we only get a couple of these add those numbers to the example I pasted below from my friend showing what OM should be worth.
Now to show data with actual numbers not pulled from the air or out of one's posterior, here is an example of OM value:
Yesterday’s shareholder alert stated that the annual revenue for B-OM is projected to be between $600M-$1.2B. IMO the purpose of that alert was to remind us of the tremendous value that B-OM alone will produce for IPIX shareholders. Let’s do some simple math. First off there have been some ridiculous share price projections on this board including one Quack that used a PE ratio of 5 for a biotech. The average PE ratio for the biotech sector is 145. The reason for that number being so high is that if you look at most biotech stocks you will see a N/A next to their PE ratio as most of them do not have net earnings, even if they have revenue coming in. Here is a sample list of biotech companies that I follow: SRPT, BTX, PTCT, SGMO, GALT, ICPT, NNVC, IONS. 7 of these 8 examples do not have net earnings therefore their PE is N/A. SRPT and ICPT’s share price are at $126 and $121 even though neither company have net earnings. Only IONS which also happens to be a royalty based biotech has a PE of 41 which is much lower than the biotech sector average PE of 145. These 8 companies have market caps ranging from $20M to $11.6B. The largest 5 of these 8 have an average market cap of over $5B.
Let’s plug in the B-OM revenue projections with some very conservative assumptions. IPIX has had annual expenses running around $12M/yr and recently stated they were projecting $13.5M in the next 12 months. Let’s jack that number up by 50% to $20M/year just to be ultra conservative. Most would agree that a 15% royalty is a good projection but let’s slash that down by 20% to be ultra conservative and use a 12% royalty fee from our soon to be announced partner. The minute a partnership deal is signed it will mark the end of any dilution but again to be ultra conservative lets jack up outstanding shares 20% to 220M. Now for the 4th grade math using these ultra conservative assumptions.
Total revenue from just B-OM = $72M-$144M ($600m-$1.2B x 12% royalty)
Annual IPIX Earnings using only revenue from B-OM = $52M-$124M (deducting $20M/yr expenses)
Earnings per Share = .236 to .472 ($52M-$124M / 220M shares)
IPIX stock price using royalty based IONS PE of 41 = $9.67- $19.35
IPIX stock price using biotech average PE of 145 = $34.22 - $68.45
So using extremely conservative assumptions on expenses and dilution and using the low end revenue projection of the single Brilacidin indication of B-OM and using a royalty PE ratio that is 70% less than the biotech average we come up with a $9.67 stock price. Again this $9.67 does not factor in $50+M cash from an upfront pharma deal or future revenue from other B indications including B-IBD and dermatitis. Oh and there is that life-saving cancer drug Kevetrin that will be a multi-billion dollar drug if it makes it to market. There will be great wealth creation for some on this board. Others on this board will move on to another stock that they know nothing about and get paid their 20 cents per post. Shorts will get crushed. Do the math.
One area on this board that has been hashed and rehashed for years is the amount of money IPIX is worth, what individual indications are worth, and what amount of money will IPIX need to move forward our various drugs and indications.
One poster today said that Leo must secure a first partnership of AT LEAST $100MM to be able to keep everyone's dreams alive. I would ask him to justify his numbers but I know an answer would not be forthcoming.
Looking at the current picture, let's assume that the first partnership is only going to be for Oral Mucositis. This indication is going to be among the smallest, if not the smallest, of any type of indication IPIX will go after. The only smaller may be Kevetrin going after very rare cancers, as retinoblastoma, which almost exclusively attacks the retina of small children and results in them losing the eye or eyes. This is the type of godsend Kevetrin could be for parents and children but NR is intent on trying to destroy IPIX simply to add money to their pockets. But as for Oral Mucositis, it is going after a target of roughly $1.2MM/ yr in head and neck cancers and possibly up to $2.5MM per year when other types of cancers are thrown in that have a high rate of OM currently. At the end of this post I have attached a great post from another site posted by a good friend showing what OM should be worth to the IPIX SP based on extremely conservative projections as to cost, percentage of market capture, IPIX yearly expenses, etc.
Remember that the average cost to bring a drug to market currently is about $1B and 10-12 years. A great deal of that is incurred in pre-clinical trials to formulate a drug that should perform acceptably on humans, the balance being for clinical trials, etc. What is not given a dollar figure is the RISK of bringing a drug to market as the success rate is woefully low and makes startup biotechs the highest risk stocks possible. This also makes them the highest reward possible (percentage wise)as so few become profitable or even remain in existence. It is well known the predatory NR groups target startup biotechs heavily as their expenses are so high and their first revenues are so far down the line.
Oral Mucositis clinical trials have already passed the usual impassable hump in achieving success as the vast majority of drugs never make it thru Phase 2. Of those that do, the vast majority make it thru Phase 3. Now in the overall scheme of things, how much of the $1B cost should a BP be willing to put up to get a drug that has already succeeded in getting thru a Phase 2? How much extra value for a drug that has a rock solid safety background so that no long list of precautions have to be given when marketing such drugs (listen to any drug on TV and the side effects sound nearly worse than the illness or condition)?
Once IPIX signs a deal with a BP, IPIX is pretty well finished with the future development of the drug for OM as the BP inherits the responsibility of taking the drug from Phase 3 to commerciality. Seems only fair to me considering IPIX carried the full weight of expenses AND THE TOTAL RISK thru the most dangerous phases of clinical trials. So once we hand OM over to a BP partner, what costs does IPIX have to cover? I see having to pay for 6 or so employees, an office lease, and whatever lab work they do for indications other than OM to forward them to a time when they can be turned over to a BP. Will they need $100MM to do this? They haven't used but a fraction of this amount to have moved 3 drugs thru Phase 2, so why the need for so much? That is why I believe this sum was pulled out of thin air as a scare tactic.
Our next steps forward appear to be a pill for IBD, a pill for Kevetrin, and then most likely topical creams for B dermatology indications (eczema and acne and supportive rosa (sp?)).
IPIX should command a very substantial upfront payment for OM alone, enough IMO to be able to forward the next movements forward regarding the pills, and once they come about we are talking disruptive numbers worth of value. After the first deal, we will also be able to uplist to NASDQ or NYSE, whichever we choose.
There are reasons we get 70+ posts a day trying to instill fear in shareholders to sell their shares at the laughable share price. Think about it. While you are thinking, remember that all our other indications are for targets in the $20B/yr+ range so if we only get a couple of these add those numbers to the example I pasted below from my friend showing what OM should be worth.
Now to show data with actual numbers not pulled from the air or out of one's posterior, here is an example of OM value:
Yesterday’s shareholder alert stated that the annual revenue for B-OM is projected to be between $600M-$1.2B. IMO the purpose of that alert was to remind us of the tremendous value that B-OM alone will produce for IPIX shareholders. Let’s do some simple math. First off there have been some ridiculous share price projections on this board including one Quack that used a PE ratio of 5 for a biotech. The average PE ratio for the biotech sector is 145. The reason for that number being so high is that if you look at most biotech stocks you will see a N/A next to their PE ratio as most of them do not have net earnings, even if they have revenue coming in. Here is a sample list of biotech companies that I follow: SRPT, BTX, PTCT, SGMO, GALT, ICPT, NNVC, IONS. 7 of these 8 examples do not have net earnings therefore their PE is N/A. SRPT and ICPT’s share price are at $126 and $121 even though neither company have net earnings. Only IONS which also happens to be a royalty based biotech has a PE of 41 which is much lower than the biotech sector average PE of 145. These 8 companies have market caps ranging from $20M to $11.6B. The largest 5 of these 8 have an average market cap of over $5B.
Let’s plug in the B-OM revenue projections with some very conservative assumptions. IPIX has had annual expenses running around $12M/yr and recently stated they were projecting $13.5M in the next 12 months. Let’s jack that number up by 50% to $20M/year just to be ultra conservative. Most would agree that a 15% royalty is a good projection but let’s slash that down by 20% to be ultra conservative and use a 12% royalty fee from our soon to be announced partner. The minute a partnership deal is signed it will mark the end of any dilution but again to be ultra conservative lets jack up outstanding shares 20% to 220M. Now for the 4th grade math using these ultra conservative assumptions.
Total revenue from just B-OM = $72M-$144M ($600m-$1.2B x 12% royalty)
Annual IPIX Earnings using only revenue from B-OM = $52M-$124M (deducting $20M/yr expenses)
Earnings per Share = .236 to .472 ($52M-$124M / 220M shares)
IPIX stock price using royalty based IONS PE of 41 = $9.67- $19.35
IPIX stock price using biotech average PE of 145 = $34.22 - $68.45
So using extremely conservative assumptions on expenses and dilution and using the low end revenue projection of the single Brilacidin indication of B-OM and using a royalty PE ratio that is 70% less than the biotech average we come up with a $9.67 stock price. Again this $9.67 does not factor in $50+M cash from an upfront pharma deal or future revenue from other B indications including B-IBD and dermatitis. Oh and there is that life-saving cancer drug Kevetrin that will be a multi-billion dollar drug if it makes it to market. There will be great wealth creation for some on this board. Others on this board will move on to another stock that they know nothing about and get paid their 20 cents per post. Shorts will get crushed. Do the math.
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