Quote:Hmmm.Let's see.PCYC bought for 21B for one drug expected to fetch $5B in 2020.Side effects and safety warnings quite intimidating too.
That's one drug that was already approved in 50 countries, in an additional 13 phase 3 trials, and already running at $1B/year at the time. All of our indications are years away from that. Also, it's an immunotheraphy drug for blood and various other cancers - there are risks but there are also risks not taking it.
Quote:I figure at $5Bn/each of the 5 indications my math comes up with a minimum of $25Bn.But then we haven't explored the myriad of likely indications for each of the 3 platforms (P,B,K) not to mention the topical market(s) for B alone,have we.
The potential is there but we are a long way from that. We're going to find out shortly what Prurisol is worth shortly. You throw billions around like they are nothing. You are quick to compare potential mid-stage clinical drugs to proven ones already on the market.
From BigKahuna's email from Leo:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/21116141-e...on-to-come
Psoriasis- A successful Phase 2 study with very good efficacy and low toxicity can become a 0.5 billion dollar value. A successful Phase 3 with good efficacy and low toxicity can become a 2+ billion dollar value.
So assuming very good efficacy and low toxicity the boss is thinking $500M value for Prurisol. With a phase 3 he says $2B+. Now, our phase 2b is a bit larger than the phase 2 he was talking about back then so lets call it $1B for a very good and safe phase 2B.
I'll be generous and give $1B for each strong dunk phase 2/2B trial. $500M for the phase 2As. This assumes Prurisol 2B delivers and Kevetrin 2a showed something BP likes.
B ABSSSI: $1B
B OM: $1B
B UP: $500M
Prurisol: $1B (with 30%+PASI75 and so SAEs)
Kevetrin: $500M (assuming BP affirmatively saw something they liked in the small 2a)
That totals $4B when trying to shoe horn the other drugs into Leo's guestimation of Prurisol value at different clinical stages. That comes in right around $30/share.
Quote:But,ALAS,NO,we just aren't worth even the $21B that bought PCYC.
Not even close with just assets that haven't started a phase 3 trial.
Quote:I guess we'll just have to accept $6/share and go home right?
Well, I said $8-30/share, not sure where you got $6 came from.
Go IPIX!
Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX) Stock Research Links
All my posts are my own personal opinion and speculation. They should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. No, I am not Scottsmith.
