The value of the stock depends how much dilution we incur,but how much dilution we have depends on what the share price is. So it is an interesting dynamic. We have 120 million shares, but we don’t yet know if any of the Chan notes and/ or the $975k senior note has converted yet. My guess would be at least some of them.
I would guess that the 2 notes to Domminick and BMI for $500k each at 2.5 cents (40 million shares) haven’t started to convert yet. I think it would be very difficult for them to push AMBS at this point for those shares. They have a fiduciary responsibility to Amarantus since they were hired by the Company to provide financial assistance and I would think Amarantus could even have recourse against them since they haven’t really done anything much to help the Company if they were to try to get those shares. So I think they are probably in discussions to extend the notes and maybe convert at more favorable terms- hopefully closer to market.
But I think you could still end up adding another 50 million shares minimum, maybe more to take care of them and the $975k note. If that’s the case, then we would be at 170+ million shares. Then you have the $21 million in debt converting in the future and whatever new funds they are able to raise. If they were to raise $10 million, then that’s a total of $31 million dollars to convert into shares.
So if you use 10 cents as a share price, then that’s 310 million new shares plus the 170 million shares or 480 million total shares. At 10 cents, that’s a market cap of $48 million.
At 20 cents, $31 million would add 155 million shares, so 325 million shares total which would equal a $65 million market cap.
At 30 cents, $31 million would add 110 million shares, so then 280 million shares total. At 30 cents, that’s a market cap of $84 million.
At 40 cents, it would add 77.5 million shares, so a total of 247.5 million shares. That would be a market cap of $99 million.
This assumes the Avant stock is worthless, If Avant as at 5 cents in a year, then there would be $4 million less owed to the noteholders. Also, if all of the shares converted, the Company would have no debt and new funding, so I think you could argue the market cap could be relatively high at that point.
The other thing is if new investors come in, they may not really even be aware of all of the debt converting later and only read the filings and see the current share count. So who knows what the share price could do. Bottom line though is everything hinges on what the share price does so GC is obviously doing what he can to get the price up though pr's and being more transparent. The higher the price in the near term, the more favorable the outcome for everyone.
I would guess that the 2 notes to Domminick and BMI for $500k each at 2.5 cents (40 million shares) haven’t started to convert yet. I think it would be very difficult for them to push AMBS at this point for those shares. They have a fiduciary responsibility to Amarantus since they were hired by the Company to provide financial assistance and I would think Amarantus could even have recourse against them since they haven’t really done anything much to help the Company if they were to try to get those shares. So I think they are probably in discussions to extend the notes and maybe convert at more favorable terms- hopefully closer to market.
But I think you could still end up adding another 50 million shares minimum, maybe more to take care of them and the $975k note. If that’s the case, then we would be at 170+ million shares. Then you have the $21 million in debt converting in the future and whatever new funds they are able to raise. If they were to raise $10 million, then that’s a total of $31 million dollars to convert into shares.
So if you use 10 cents as a share price, then that’s 310 million new shares plus the 170 million shares or 480 million total shares. At 10 cents, that’s a market cap of $48 million.
At 20 cents, $31 million would add 155 million shares, so 325 million shares total which would equal a $65 million market cap.
At 30 cents, $31 million would add 110 million shares, so then 280 million shares total. At 30 cents, that’s a market cap of $84 million.
At 40 cents, it would add 77.5 million shares, so a total of 247.5 million shares. That would be a market cap of $99 million.
This assumes the Avant stock is worthless, If Avant as at 5 cents in a year, then there would be $4 million less owed to the noteholders. Also, if all of the shares converted, the Company would have no debt and new funding, so I think you could argue the market cap could be relatively high at that point.
The other thing is if new investors come in, they may not really even be aware of all of the debt converting later and only read the filings and see the current share count. So who knows what the share price could do. Bottom line though is everything hinges on what the share price does so GC is obviously doing what he can to get the price up though pr's and being more transparent. The higher the price in the near term, the more favorable the outcome for everyone.
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