We're thinking the same exact thing. I remember someone at the former company that told me "well Virgin only started with one plane!"....yeah dickhead, they did, but you idiots aren't even on the same planet as Richard Branson. He was rich before he started Virgin; he wasn't selling private placements. I wonder if anyone at the old company understood that point.
And I never want to hear about SIRI again. Ever. It's a tech stock. As my Amazon/Delta Airlines comparison showed, you cannot use tech stocks to assess another industry, especially one as stereotyped as airlines. The valuation mechanics don't translate. It's like learning to speak Japanese so you can understand French. Sure, they're both languages, but they're completely different and the French/Japanese people behave quite differently.
Now, I'm not a huge fan of speaking poorly about the dead, but I was reading about a very interesting brain disorder that reminded me of Igor. It's called Munchausen Syndrome. As you know, I'm a psychiatric disease geneticist, so wacky behavior like Igor's really gets my cranial blood flowing, you know? Munchausen is diagnosed when a seemingly healthy person suddenly convinces everyone around them that they are sick - and they will go to extreme lengths to do so. There are no known changes to the brain in these patients. It's thought that severe emotional distress can trigger this behavior, but we're decades from knowing how a healthy brain could elicit such strong delusions. What's most interesting to me is that the person afflicted with Munchausen is completely aware that they are not sick. Hopefully I've made my point clear without having to say it outright.
I hope we are not invested in a company that has Munchausen Syndrome. There is no room for delusional thoughts. I hope that mistakes will be recognized immediately and that pride, ego, enthusiasm, and optimism to not cloud the judgment of those at the top of USGlobal. "Trust us" is a terrible way to run a publicly traded company as we saw with Baltia. I'm an attentive person - I'm constantly looking around at those whose decisions affect my life because I want to know if these individuals are as smart as they're required to be, or if their resume is a series of bullshit stints that sound glamorous, but otherwise provide no value to USGlobal. I wonder if Tony can see this and put the dog out of its misery without hesitation, and get very highly educated individuals on the company's team. I've seen him dispose of baggage within USGlobal, so I'm confident in his leadership and extreme enthusiasm and passion for this business. But you make a point that has me questioning if USGlobal is making the right choices. You stated, "So to get my head straight - in the next 30 days, they need to release 2 years of corrected crap, perform a name change (which can take some time if there is an issue), raise 6-50 million dollars and close the Songbird deal... this does not even account for Sheryl's comment to the question when asked how soon after announcement can you be ready to fly - 120 days. Announcement I reiterate..." Are they really going to pull this off? Are the decisions they're making right now going to get this company certified within 30 days?
You brought up a second point that I started this post with: "and to have one plane to boot? I am hoping there is much more to the story... somewhere - though all the silence - i am missing something...." I don't think there's much more to this story. It's very simple: get Songbird, which can accommodate 767s immediately - but I hope they go straight to the 777 - and use the 737 they already have for charter and go from there. They can lease up to 10 planes right now, IMO all of them should be 737s for charter or other flights IMMEDIATELY. Get a burst of investments ($20M+) and lease 737s, get a ton of revenue for financing 777s while adding the manuals or w/e the process is (I'm sure there's someone here who can explain clearly how the process of adding additional aircraft works...lookin at you, firestream). However, they cannot possibly make grand plans for acquiring a large fleet of aircraft without having any idea about who will finance it, and how. Last time I spoke to IR, they said they are looking into this, which put my worries to rest (mostly...I'm naturally a very un-optimistic person for many, many reasons). But again, you've made great points about financing: how are they getting by now, how will they finance the acquisition in the next 30 days, etc.
I watch "Shark Tank" a lot. And "The Profit." Something that is frequently stated by both the investors and the individuals looking for an investment is that it's better to own 50% of a watermelon than 100% of a grape (if anyone is confused....watermelon = successful company and grape = selling shit out of your garage). If the only way to finance future lease contracts in the short-term is by selling equity, then by all means please do so. There's no room for more $1 million preferred stock. It's like dying a slow, painful death while your kids argue over who gets the house, the Mercedes, and the dog.
The worst thing for us as investors (aka OWNERS) of this company is to just sit back and wait. We might as well have this discussion now so that we're not caught off guard if the shit hits the fan...which it probably won't. As it stands, we know that 1 charter 737 lease will be used by Songbird under USGlobal's ownership. They'll fly passengers and make some $. I've read the Second Quarter update several times, and it leaves me wondering why they stated certain things like this: "...we plan on phasing in the Boeing 767-300ER aircraft to accommodate this strategy." Why? If I want to start a car dealership, I'm not going to try to sell you the 2010 model. The 777 is the only option they have for international flights, I'm convinced that they also know this and mentioned the 767 for either legal purposes or to keep investors temporarily satisfied, although I doubt a single 737 will do much of that.
I'll reiterate this till the Sun expands and consumes the entire solar system: the only way this company will make it is by a humungous cash infusion (tens of millions) within a few weeks of the start of revenue flights, and to lease multiple aircraft at once, not sequentially. One plane every 3-4 months is going to result in this company failing when competition comes along and decides USGlobal has had its 15 minutes of fame. There's no chance they can slowly build up the fleet and expect AAL, DAL, and UAL to allow it to happen. You said, "Are they going to do one giant Orgasmic blast on the airline world? I hope not.... you cannot build name recognition that way, and to have one plane to boot?" But I beg to differ. I ride the NYC subways every single day on my commute to work, and I can tell you that Casper is an amazing mattress. It took me just 2 months to figure that out. I've never slept on one, nor do I have any idea how much it costs. But I know that it's a fantastic product that is enjoyed by thousands of people. How do I know this? There are signs posted all over the trains about Casper and how awesome it is. I've overheard fellow commuters tell each other how great their new Casper mattress is. Their marketing team did such an incredible job at getting the name out, that everyone and their mother knows about Casper. There are more people who know about Casper than there are Casper mattresses. And yet, if you look around, there is A LOT of competition. Casper has dozens of very, very good competitors that offer cheaper mattresses. But those products aren't marketed as effectively, nor are they as good. When you sleep on a Casper, you tell people about it. It's the mentality they've instilled into their customers. So what's my point? Well, Delta Airlines spent roughly $50 million on marketing in 2014. That's a small % of their total net profit. It won't be difficult for USGlobal to become the airline Casper if they know how to market and expand the fleet quickly. Casper didn't make 10 million mattresses and then decide to market itself. They grew by marketing, not just by selling. So to think that USGlobal cannot become a giant company within a reasonably short time frame, given that the rate-limiting factor is money, not time, is something I'd have to disagree with. It's simply a matter of how effective they are at making it happen.
And I never want to hear about SIRI again. Ever. It's a tech stock. As my Amazon/Delta Airlines comparison showed, you cannot use tech stocks to assess another industry, especially one as stereotyped as airlines. The valuation mechanics don't translate. It's like learning to speak Japanese so you can understand French. Sure, they're both languages, but they're completely different and the French/Japanese people behave quite differently.
Now, I'm not a huge fan of speaking poorly about the dead, but I was reading about a very interesting brain disorder that reminded me of Igor. It's called Munchausen Syndrome. As you know, I'm a psychiatric disease geneticist, so wacky behavior like Igor's really gets my cranial blood flowing, you know? Munchausen is diagnosed when a seemingly healthy person suddenly convinces everyone around them that they are sick - and they will go to extreme lengths to do so. There are no known changes to the brain in these patients. It's thought that severe emotional distress can trigger this behavior, but we're decades from knowing how a healthy brain could elicit such strong delusions. What's most interesting to me is that the person afflicted with Munchausen is completely aware that they are not sick. Hopefully I've made my point clear without having to say it outright.
I hope we are not invested in a company that has Munchausen Syndrome. There is no room for delusional thoughts. I hope that mistakes will be recognized immediately and that pride, ego, enthusiasm, and optimism to not cloud the judgment of those at the top of USGlobal. "Trust us" is a terrible way to run a publicly traded company as we saw with Baltia. I'm an attentive person - I'm constantly looking around at those whose decisions affect my life because I want to know if these individuals are as smart as they're required to be, or if their resume is a series of bullshit stints that sound glamorous, but otherwise provide no value to USGlobal. I wonder if Tony can see this and put the dog out of its misery without hesitation, and get very highly educated individuals on the company's team. I've seen him dispose of baggage within USGlobal, so I'm confident in his leadership and extreme enthusiasm and passion for this business. But you make a point that has me questioning if USGlobal is making the right choices. You stated, "So to get my head straight - in the next 30 days, they need to release 2 years of corrected crap, perform a name change (which can take some time if there is an issue), raise 6-50 million dollars and close the Songbird deal... this does not even account for Sheryl's comment to the question when asked how soon after announcement can you be ready to fly - 120 days. Announcement I reiterate..." Are they really going to pull this off? Are the decisions they're making right now going to get this company certified within 30 days?
You brought up a second point that I started this post with: "and to have one plane to boot? I am hoping there is much more to the story... somewhere - though all the silence - i am missing something...." I don't think there's much more to this story. It's very simple: get Songbird, which can accommodate 767s immediately - but I hope they go straight to the 777 - and use the 737 they already have for charter and go from there. They can lease up to 10 planes right now, IMO all of them should be 737s for charter or other flights IMMEDIATELY. Get a burst of investments ($20M+) and lease 737s, get a ton of revenue for financing 777s while adding the manuals or w/e the process is (I'm sure there's someone here who can explain clearly how the process of adding additional aircraft works...lookin at you, firestream). However, they cannot possibly make grand plans for acquiring a large fleet of aircraft without having any idea about who will finance it, and how. Last time I spoke to IR, they said they are looking into this, which put my worries to rest (mostly...I'm naturally a very un-optimistic person for many, many reasons). But again, you've made great points about financing: how are they getting by now, how will they finance the acquisition in the next 30 days, etc.
I watch "Shark Tank" a lot. And "The Profit." Something that is frequently stated by both the investors and the individuals looking for an investment is that it's better to own 50% of a watermelon than 100% of a grape (if anyone is confused....watermelon = successful company and grape = selling shit out of your garage). If the only way to finance future lease contracts in the short-term is by selling equity, then by all means please do so. There's no room for more $1 million preferred stock. It's like dying a slow, painful death while your kids argue over who gets the house, the Mercedes, and the dog.
The worst thing for us as investors (aka OWNERS) of this company is to just sit back and wait. We might as well have this discussion now so that we're not caught off guard if the shit hits the fan...which it probably won't. As it stands, we know that 1 charter 737 lease will be used by Songbird under USGlobal's ownership. They'll fly passengers and make some $. I've read the Second Quarter update several times, and it leaves me wondering why they stated certain things like this: "...we plan on phasing in the Boeing 767-300ER aircraft to accommodate this strategy." Why? If I want to start a car dealership, I'm not going to try to sell you the 2010 model. The 777 is the only option they have for international flights, I'm convinced that they also know this and mentioned the 767 for either legal purposes or to keep investors temporarily satisfied, although I doubt a single 737 will do much of that.
I'll reiterate this till the Sun expands and consumes the entire solar system: the only way this company will make it is by a humungous cash infusion (tens of millions) within a few weeks of the start of revenue flights, and to lease multiple aircraft at once, not sequentially. One plane every 3-4 months is going to result in this company failing when competition comes along and decides USGlobal has had its 15 minutes of fame. There's no chance they can slowly build up the fleet and expect AAL, DAL, and UAL to allow it to happen. You said, "Are they going to do one giant Orgasmic blast on the airline world? I hope not.... you cannot build name recognition that way, and to have one plane to boot?" But I beg to differ. I ride the NYC subways every single day on my commute to work, and I can tell you that Casper is an amazing mattress. It took me just 2 months to figure that out. I've never slept on one, nor do I have any idea how much it costs. But I know that it's a fantastic product that is enjoyed by thousands of people. How do I know this? There are signs posted all over the trains about Casper and how awesome it is. I've overheard fellow commuters tell each other how great their new Casper mattress is. Their marketing team did such an incredible job at getting the name out, that everyone and their mother knows about Casper. There are more people who know about Casper than there are Casper mattresses. And yet, if you look around, there is A LOT of competition. Casper has dozens of very, very good competitors that offer cheaper mattresses. But those products aren't marketed as effectively, nor are they as good. When you sleep on a Casper, you tell people about it. It's the mentality they've instilled into their customers. So what's my point? Well, Delta Airlines spent roughly $50 million on marketing in 2014. That's a small % of their total net profit. It won't be difficult for USGlobal to become the airline Casper if they know how to market and expand the fleet quickly. Casper didn't make 10 million mattresses and then decide to market itself. They grew by marketing, not just by selling. So to think that USGlobal cannot become a giant company within a reasonably short time frame, given that the rate-limiting factor is money, not time, is something I'd have to disagree with. It's simply a matter of how effective they are at making it happen.
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