imo $1 per share is still realistic based on the o
Post# of 30028
Posted On: 08/09/2016 6:15:36 AM
imo $1 per share is still realistic based on the outstanding shares and what the company should be really worth in my eyes.
I got my average to $2.28 even thats still realistic to achieve IF everything works in our favor.
I recall (this is from memory) that we had about 70 million outstanding shares (but chances are we might have more today).
I'll use the 70 million outstanding shares for my example.
I personaly value the company around the $150m-$200 market cap based on peers and our pipeline. I recall ESS being worth around $100m according to GC in its current state (and you also have MANF, ELTO in your pipeline).
so..... 70million shares times $2.50 pps would make a market cap of $175m.
So today i see myself still having the possibility to break even and thats realistic in my eyes (others can dissagree but thats how i see it and based on what i know).
At this moment with what i know, this can play out two ways. One positive and the other not so positive.
1) we get a good JV with ESS with enough upfront money to take out the toxics and enough money to see the ESS phase II trials through without the need of another reverse split and more dilution.
2) we don't get a partner and we have to dilute the current shareholders more with another reverse split and causing the outstanding shares to go up more then the 70million we have now (which is no good for anybody but neccessary to bring ESS to market).
In scenario 2 my chance of breaking even with my $2.28 goes out the window and i'll will either have to invest more money to average down (which i don't plan on doing at the moment) to be succesfull with my investment, that is assuming ESS finishes with good phase II data.
Personally i think we would make a great chance of being succesfull with ESS seeing how its already proven it works and its superior compared to other products. No worries there for me.
The only worry for me is the outstanding shares, how high will that be by the time ESS is succesfull?
Only time will tell what happens. Nothing is set in stone yet.
A deal is still being negotiated.
crossing my fingers for a good JV deal.
just my 3.5 cents.
Good luck everyone!
I got my average to $2.28 even thats still realistic to achieve IF everything works in our favor.
I recall (this is from memory) that we had about 70 million outstanding shares (but chances are we might have more today).
I'll use the 70 million outstanding shares for my example.
I personaly value the company around the $150m-$200 market cap based on peers and our pipeline. I recall ESS being worth around $100m according to GC in its current state (and you also have MANF, ELTO in your pipeline).
so..... 70million shares times $2.50 pps would make a market cap of $175m.
So today i see myself still having the possibility to break even and thats realistic in my eyes (others can dissagree but thats how i see it and based on what i know).
At this moment with what i know, this can play out two ways. One positive and the other not so positive.
1) we get a good JV with ESS with enough upfront money to take out the toxics and enough money to see the ESS phase II trials through without the need of another reverse split and more dilution.
2) we don't get a partner and we have to dilute the current shareholders more with another reverse split and causing the outstanding shares to go up more then the 70million we have now (which is no good for anybody but neccessary to bring ESS to market).
In scenario 2 my chance of breaking even with my $2.28 goes out the window and i'll will either have to invest more money to average down (which i don't plan on doing at the moment) to be succesfull with my investment, that is assuming ESS finishes with good phase II data.
Personally i think we would make a great chance of being succesfull with ESS seeing how its already proven it works and its superior compared to other products. No worries there for me.
The only worry for me is the outstanding shares, how high will that be by the time ESS is succesfull?
Only time will tell what happens. Nothing is set in stone yet.
A deal is still being negotiated.
Quote:
In addition, on August 6, 2016, the Company extended the exclusivity period of its non-binding Letter of Intent (the "LOI”) with a commercial-stage wound-care company to form a joint venture (the "JV" for the further development of the ESS program. The exclusivity period of the LOI, has been extended for an additional 30 days to August 29th, 2016.
crossing my fingers for a good JV deal.
just my 3.5 cents.
Good luck everyone!
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