I read the post from DoctorKen concerning what it
Post# of 1023
Posted On: 03/22/2016 6:35:43 PM
I read the post from DoctorKen concerning what it would take for SCIE to reach $1 in share price. I also ran the numbers and I came to a very similar outcome. Very good post. It’s nice to have other people posting actual DD.
Adding to this, but not taking away from his post:
One thing to remember is that Spectrascience isn't selling (at least not that we know of.. yet) the WavSTAT4 for a straight $30,000 per machine. Michael Oliver held a presentation a number of years ago where he referenced selling the forceps as a recurring stream. This business mode is called the razor - razorblade model in which you can image going to the store to buy a set of razors. What this means is that your initial purchase includes one razor handle and 4 blades. But when those blades run out, you don't buy another handle because you already have the handle. Now, you just go back to the store and purchase additional blades.
But the catch is (and its good for the razorblade company), the handle is relatively inexpensive, but they get you on the cost of the blades. A handle by itself is only $5. But a set of 12 blades can cost $40 or more.
And so, the same thing goes for Spectrascience’s business model. Im pretty sure there will be some form of upfront cost for the console, but what I do know is just like buying more razor blades, hospitals will have recurring payments for new forceps. This, in my opinion, is great for investors because in order to use the WavSTAT4 to its full potential, you have to have the forceps. Of course, there is also the possibility of hospitals buying the Wavstat console outright. We know from a number of PR’s that the technology is interchangeable with other brands; which means other companies can use their own forceps with the WavSTAT4. This opens even more doors to us.
You can read about this razor-razorblade model on SCIEs website: Products > Optical Biopsy Forceps.
If youre interested in the actual video of Michael Oliver talking about their razor-razorblade model, go to my post #255. Its all there.
Note
In the video, you hear Oliver say that Spectrascience offers hospitals to buy the forceps on an ‘every month’ or ‘every quarter’ program.
This is great for us because we get 10-Q’s every quarter which means we will see all new sales as they happen.
Once we get the 10-K NEXT WEEK, we’re going to be able to figure out a lot more.
Back in 2009 (the LUMA was still a ‘thing’ back then), the CEO Jim Hitchin said in a report that it costs about $30,000 PER patient and $120,000 for late stage cancer. Imagine the cost 7 years later. Hospitals are going to want to save money; and if it means having recurring payments for the forceps, I believe they will be more than willing to do so.
The 8-K from 2012 (no link, do DD and youll find it) specifically says each console costs $30,000 and the forceps cost $825 for a box of five forceps. It would take less than 40 boxes to equal the cost of the entire console. And what happens when those 40 boxes are gone? Time to buy more!
And the best part for the company (not celebrating cancer but rather celebrating that this technology exists to find cancer before it causes problems), is that as the population ages, there will always be the need for colonoscopies. Obviously, no one wants to get cancer, but knowing the need is there, there will always be a need for technology like the WavSTAT4.
And seeing 14 million people get colonoscopies a year.. the numbers and potential for this company is overwhelming considering Europe, China, and the UK have access to the WavSTAT4 before the USA.
Adding to this, but not taking away from his post:
One thing to remember is that Spectrascience isn't selling (at least not that we know of.. yet) the WavSTAT4 for a straight $30,000 per machine. Michael Oliver held a presentation a number of years ago where he referenced selling the forceps as a recurring stream. This business mode is called the razor - razorblade model in which you can image going to the store to buy a set of razors. What this means is that your initial purchase includes one razor handle and 4 blades. But when those blades run out, you don't buy another handle because you already have the handle. Now, you just go back to the store and purchase additional blades.
But the catch is (and its good for the razorblade company), the handle is relatively inexpensive, but they get you on the cost of the blades. A handle by itself is only $5. But a set of 12 blades can cost $40 or more.
And so, the same thing goes for Spectrascience’s business model. Im pretty sure there will be some form of upfront cost for the console, but what I do know is just like buying more razor blades, hospitals will have recurring payments for new forceps. This, in my opinion, is great for investors because in order to use the WavSTAT4 to its full potential, you have to have the forceps. Of course, there is also the possibility of hospitals buying the Wavstat console outright. We know from a number of PR’s that the technology is interchangeable with other brands; which means other companies can use their own forceps with the WavSTAT4. This opens even more doors to us.
You can read about this razor-razorblade model on SCIEs website: Products > Optical Biopsy Forceps.
If youre interested in the actual video of Michael Oliver talking about their razor-razorblade model, go to my post #255. Its all there.
Note
In the video, you hear Oliver say that Spectrascience offers hospitals to buy the forceps on an ‘every month’ or ‘every quarter’ program.
This is great for us because we get 10-Q’s every quarter which means we will see all new sales as they happen.
Once we get the 10-K NEXT WEEK, we’re going to be able to figure out a lot more.
Back in 2009 (the LUMA was still a ‘thing’ back then), the CEO Jim Hitchin said in a report that it costs about $30,000 PER patient and $120,000 for late stage cancer. Imagine the cost 7 years later. Hospitals are going to want to save money; and if it means having recurring payments for the forceps, I believe they will be more than willing to do so.
The 8-K from 2012 (no link, do DD and youll find it) specifically says each console costs $30,000 and the forceps cost $825 for a box of five forceps. It would take less than 40 boxes to equal the cost of the entire console. And what happens when those 40 boxes are gone? Time to buy more!
And the best part for the company (not celebrating cancer but rather celebrating that this technology exists to find cancer before it causes problems), is that as the population ages, there will always be the need for colonoscopies. Obviously, no one wants to get cancer, but knowing the need is there, there will always be a need for technology like the WavSTAT4.
And seeing 14 million people get colonoscopies a year.. the numbers and potential for this company is overwhelming considering Europe, China, and the UK have access to the WavSTAT4 before the USA.
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Invite Only
There is a VERY HIGH degree of RISK involved in trading and investing. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
Disclaimer:
As used herein, the terms "You" and "Your" shall mean you, individually, the reader, and each other party on whose behalf you may use the contained information at any time.
All references to "My", "I", and “The writer of the above post” shall refer to the creator of the username Joey68.
Do NOT invest unless you are prepared to sustain a total loss of the money you have invested plus any commission or other transaction charges.
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading and investing. Past results are not indicative of future returns. I assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results. You should NOT rely on the information in the above post to make any decision or take any action.
ALL OF MY STATEMENTS, including but not limited to, POSTS, MESSAGES, PRIVATE MESSAGES, and RESPONSES are OPINION and NOT fact and are for entertainment purposes only. Do your own research and make your own decisions based on your own conclusions.
ALL OF MY STATEMENTS, including but not limited to, POSTS, MESSAGES, PRIVATE MESSAGES, and RESPONSES are NOT advice, and are NOT designed to substitute the expertise and judgment of a professional. It is your responsibility to seek investment advice during all stages of your investments. It is your responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information in the above post.
I am NOT a professional.
I do NOT work for you.
My posts are NOT investment advice. I am not paid to post.
There is no correlation between the number of posts I write per day and your assumed success of a company.
It is NOT my responsibility to inform you of my own personal investment decisions.
It is NOT my responsibility to inform you when it is time for you to buy, hold, and/or sell a position.
I have no control over, and am not responsible for the actions of others who copy, store, edit, change, prepare any derivative work of or alter in any way any of the content provided in my posts.
Errors and Omissions expected. The writer of the above post accepts no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions contained in the above post or contained within this Disclaimer.
The writer of the above post shall NOT accept any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the above post, for any reliance placed by any person on the information contained in the above post, or for any damage or loss, however caused, in connection with the use or reliance on any information contained in the above post.
The above post may contain links to websites owned and operated by third parties. These links are provided for informational purposes only and are NOT endorsed by the writer of the above post. The writer of the above post has no control over the contents of any linked website and bears no responsibility for the accuracy, legality, or content of the external site or for that of subsequent links.
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The writer of the above post makes no warranties or representations, express or implied about such linked websites, the third parties they are owned and operated by, or the information contained on these websites.
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There is a VERY HIGH degree of RISK involved in trading and investing. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
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