Copper, Silver, Dollars...
I've seen a lot of posts referencing the enormous short-term and long-term potential for this stock. Which got me thinking, is a share price of $1 a real possibility? Or is it a pipe dream? What would it take in SALES for us to get there? Never mind the building hype surrounding this company. So I ran some numbers.
- At $30,000 per WavStat console and $165 per disposable forceps...
- Assuming each console uses a measly 1-2 forceps per day...
- 260 business days per year...
- 750,000,000 A/S...
- And a P/E ratio of 5-10x...
If you do the math, it would take about 1000 units to send the share price to $1. Now, dranethesia pointed that there are 5600 hospitals and 10,000 outpatient centers performing colonoscopies in the US alone. There's probably a similar number in Europe. And another poster recently shared some good DD showing that we're making forays into the Chinese market as well. Don't forget we're already in the middle east.
Also remember, this technology is FDA and CE approved. It's been shown through clinical trials to exceed the industry standard for cancer detection. What else does it add? (1) Saves time, (2) reduces costs, (3) reduces life-threatening complications such as intestinal perforation that come with resecting tissue for physical biopsies, (4) allows for earlier diagnosis and treatment of colon cancer.
Insurance companies and single payer health systems will want the technology for all of the above reasons, not to mention patients. But what about physicians? Will they adopt it? In today's healthcare climate doctors always want more objective evidence - we don't just eyeball things anymore - too much liability. Using WavStat adds objective data to an otherwise subjective determination of cancerous versus non-cancerous. It's easy to use, doesn't require a lot of additional training, doesn't lengthen the procedure time. Once it hits the market WavStat will be widely adopted and will quickly become standard of care I think within the next 3 years.
Given the huge market and the value that WavStat adds for insurers, physicians, and patients, does anyone really doubt we could sell 1000 units? Now do the multiples for 5000 units, or 10,000. We recently acquired the technology to screen for Barrett's Esophagus, so double those figures. And Spectra's working on trials to screen for bladder cancer and they've announced their intention to get approval for lung, skin, cervix, etc. See where I'm going?
I think this will be a billion dollar company one day and I'm in it for the long haul. Just my opinion of course. I'm a doctor, not a financial expert. What does everyone else think?
I've seen a lot of posts referencing the enormous short-term and long-term potential for this stock. Which got me thinking, is a share price of $1 a real possibility? Or is it a pipe dream? What would it take in SALES for us to get there? Never mind the building hype surrounding this company. So I ran some numbers.
- At $30,000 per WavStat console and $165 per disposable forceps...
- Assuming each console uses a measly 1-2 forceps per day...
- 260 business days per year...
- 750,000,000 A/S...
- And a P/E ratio of 5-10x...
If you do the math, it would take about 1000 units to send the share price to $1. Now, dranethesia pointed that there are 5600 hospitals and 10,000 outpatient centers performing colonoscopies in the US alone. There's probably a similar number in Europe. And another poster recently shared some good DD showing that we're making forays into the Chinese market as well. Don't forget we're already in the middle east.
Also remember, this technology is FDA and CE approved. It's been shown through clinical trials to exceed the industry standard for cancer detection. What else does it add? (1) Saves time, (2) reduces costs, (3) reduces life-threatening complications such as intestinal perforation that come with resecting tissue for physical biopsies, (4) allows for earlier diagnosis and treatment of colon cancer.
Insurance companies and single payer health systems will want the technology for all of the above reasons, not to mention patients. But what about physicians? Will they adopt it? In today's healthcare climate doctors always want more objective evidence - we don't just eyeball things anymore - too much liability. Using WavStat adds objective data to an otherwise subjective determination of cancerous versus non-cancerous. It's easy to use, doesn't require a lot of additional training, doesn't lengthen the procedure time. Once it hits the market WavStat will be widely adopted and will quickly become standard of care I think within the next 3 years.
Given the huge market and the value that WavStat adds for insurers, physicians, and patients, does anyone really doubt we could sell 1000 units? Now do the multiples for 5000 units, or 10,000. We recently acquired the technology to screen for Barrett's Esophagus, so double those figures. And Spectra's working on trials to screen for bladder cancer and they've announced their intention to get approval for lung, skin, cervix, etc. See where I'm going?
I think this will be a billion dollar company one day and I'm in it for the long haul. Just my opinion of course. I'm a doctor, not a financial expert. What does everyone else think?
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