If you look at SeeThru's price target for AMBS and AVDX you'll see one target is 168 x the current price and the other is 5 times. I believe that's a fair valuation and why I've continued to buy.
If AVDX goes to $2.97, Amarantus stake goes from $48M to $237M.
If you assumed for a second Amarantus didn't have ESS, Elto & MANF and just had AVDX, would it be fair to value Amarantus as a market cap of $237M if their stake in AVDX is that. Basically 79 x the current price. So if AVDX has a 5 x gain, AMBS reaps a 79 x gain.
Fortunately Amarantus does own ESS, Elto & MANF. ESS alone would take Amarantus to a price target of over $16.81. It has no competition after all this time still. Has already been proven to work. Has years of history. As GC has said, ESS came down to an execution risk (not a, does it work risk). Could ESS make it through cGMP which it looks like it will wrap of this month when the technical transfer is complete and the trial scheduled to begin next month. I've posted before what ESS was worth before DoD backing, ODD, etc. Now add cGMP to that list, a Phase II beginning and two Phase II being planned. Lonza is investing time and money into this. It's not like an $8B company is doing it because it's a crap shoot.
Now let's go back and look at AVDX. The new company has a ton of potential and the time horizon to realize is not far away. Gregg talked about possibly uplisting in 6-12 months. If you look at just OvaDx as one example, it potenitally can get FDA approval in 18 months with a test that is far better than what already exists in a $2B market. Yup, 100 things can happen between now and then and it's why the target of $2.97 instead of $29.97, but the potential is there for much more than a 5 x play in a very short period of time. Add to that the shares are locked makes this very interesting.
OTCBB: AVDX
Sector / Industry Healthcare / Biotechnology
Price target $2.97
Recent share price $0.60
Shares o/s (mn) 98.3
Market cap (in $mn) 59.0
http://media.wix.com/ugd/a15970_217a911a18a84...4565b1.pdf
OTCQX: AMBS
Sector / Industry Healthcare / Biotechnology
Price target $16.81
Recent share price $0.10
Shares o/s (mn) 29.7
Market cap (in $mn) 3.0
52-week high/low $12.90 / 0.08
http://media.wix.com/ugd/a15970_1e56d75ac31f4...a26751.pdf
If AVDX goes to $2.97, Amarantus stake goes from $48M to $237M.
If you assumed for a second Amarantus didn't have ESS, Elto & MANF and just had AVDX, would it be fair to value Amarantus as a market cap of $237M if their stake in AVDX is that. Basically 79 x the current price. So if AVDX has a 5 x gain, AMBS reaps a 79 x gain.
Fortunately Amarantus does own ESS, Elto & MANF. ESS alone would take Amarantus to a price target of over $16.81. It has no competition after all this time still. Has already been proven to work. Has years of history. As GC has said, ESS came down to an execution risk (not a, does it work risk). Could ESS make it through cGMP which it looks like it will wrap of this month when the technical transfer is complete and the trial scheduled to begin next month. I've posted before what ESS was worth before DoD backing, ODD, etc. Now add cGMP to that list, a Phase II beginning and two Phase II being planned. Lonza is investing time and money into this. It's not like an $8B company is doing it because it's a crap shoot.
Now let's go back and look at AVDX. The new company has a ton of potential and the time horizon to realize is not far away. Gregg talked about possibly uplisting in 6-12 months. If you look at just OvaDx as one example, it potenitally can get FDA approval in 18 months with a test that is far better than what already exists in a $2B market. Yup, 100 things can happen between now and then and it's why the target of $2.97 instead of $29.97, but the potential is there for much more than a 5 x play in a very short period of time. Add to that the shares are locked makes this very interesting.
OTCBB: AVDX
Sector / Industry Healthcare / Biotechnology
Price target $2.97
Recent share price $0.60
Shares o/s (mn) 98.3
Market cap (in $mn) 59.0
http://media.wix.com/ugd/a15970_217a911a18a84...4565b1.pdf
OTCQX: AMBS
Sector / Industry Healthcare / Biotechnology
Price target $16.81
Recent share price $0.10
Shares o/s (mn) 29.7
Market cap (in $mn) 3.0
52-week high/low $12.90 / 0.08
http://media.wix.com/ugd/a15970_1e56d75ac31f4...a26751.pdf
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