and Hillary just lost Michigan Not good...How

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and Hillary just lost Michigan
Not good...How you plain to do it

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She still wins — and comfortably.

How? She’s already banked a large delegate lead, and it has nothing to do with the “superdelegates.”

Thirty-three percent of all of the pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention have already been awarded. She has won those delegates by roughly a 60-40 margin.

To overcome it, Mr. Sanders will need to do nearly as well from this point on. Not even the very strong showing for Mr. Sanders imagined above would be enough.

In fact, it still wouldn’t be very close. Mr. Sanders basically splits the delegates with Mrs. Clinton the rest of the way — leaving him far short of the big eight-point advantage he needs.

Mrs. Clinton still wins clear victories in diverse or affluent states like Florida, North Carolina, Maryland and New Jersey — the only four states where she breaks 55 percent of the vote in this projection. The problem for Mr. Sanders is that many of these states are far larger than the places where he hopes to excel.

The reality is that the Democratic delegate rules, which award delegates proportionally, make it extremely hard for Mr. Sanders to dig himself out of the hole he’s already in. Indeed, he fell short of winning 60 percent of the delegates in Michigan on Tuesday night, despite the upset win. As a result, his burden in future contests grew a little larger.

Mr. Sanders needs landslides to counter landslides. Not even the results from Tuesday suggest he’s on pace to get them, at least not in states with enough delegates to counter Mrs. Clinton’s lead.

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