I have some reflections my fellow investors, who a
Post# of 30028
1. I don't see Jason's comments as a change in projection, but as a retraction. Oh, you don't know enough to project beyond $1mill? then you don't have enough to project period. What he wrote here was a more reasonable framing of the issue. See it as you like, it had/has no impact on price. His general bullishness and the attention AMBS will get from being not far down the list of the top bull article on seeking alpha will move this stock for sure though. This is the Winter Biotech attention you want.
2. ya ya, the p value is basic statistics, not necessarily particular to any concern of ours, less than .05 is widely accepted to indicate the null hypothesis is WRONG. In laymen's, the null hypothesis is the opposite of what we shareholders want: that Lympro's analysis DOES NOT differentiate between ALZ and non ALZ patients.
That's a backwards, but more accurate way of saying statistically it's a 95% certitude or greater that Lympro "works." And if everyone can be 95% sure, or in our case, > 99% sure Lympro "works" that's a good thing. So our P- value is very good. But whether it "works" is not enough to mean we get paid.
The reason people flipped out (flip..you know, because of all the flippers and I'll be honest I have flipped 1/3 of my shares twice this year and reinvested 100% both times to lower my risk and increase my holdings) is because honestly when it comes to the acceptability of a new diagnostic, no one has a gosh darn clue whether Lympro "works well enough" to be the new standard diagnostic. I personally don't know what BP needs to see. Is Sen/Spec the end all be all? Is a multivariate approach above a certain level awesome/not awesome, or do we really need a univariate above a certain level. Is there another consideration outside of cost and sen spec and p-value?
3. My greatest concern as an investor is that Lympro works, but because of other biological factors in the cloudy world of alzheimers research, it does nothing more than add to the "scientific rationale" of the cell cycle hypothesis to use GC's words. In short, that it's a good thing for the world, and not a valuable asset for us. You would think that would mean we have something really valuable to BP. But it's yet to be proven. And I can further imagine that our diagnostic becomes so full proof and valuable and we so disrupt ALZ science that BP recreate their approaches to the disease. In this case, getting any value for Lympro is likely delayed even if far more valuable.
And the fact is we remain in a position where need money soon one way or another. I'm not super worried because besides Lympro, with ESS and elto and MANF events happening soon, I don't see us at .08 long either, and even if we continue to dilute, the more valuable our shares, the fewer new shares get injected. There are numerous events that have a decent chance of unfolding that would put us in a position where we don't have to dilute. It remains to be seen if the limited dominion/SeriesE/LPC dilution we've seen so far is the end for better or worse. If GC needed to get us a few $million now so we could get tens of millions in a few weeks who cares.
I've always thought the extra 1 billion shares was a good idea because we either won't need it, or we will - closing the doors or having an asset firesale would be far worse! I won't see GC as a bad CEO if we keep diluting out of necessity. I think we're 100% in a scenario where even if we end up diluting shares another 50% its nothing compared to the value increase keeping the doors open that long will bring. How would you feel if this $0.08 went down before it went to $1.00, $2.00, $4.00, $8.00 and so on.
Warren Buffet says the way you turn $40 into $5 million is to know a company so well you have the confidence to stick through the bull over a long period of time until everyone else knows the value. I have absolutely loved getting to know this company. I have lost my ass on biotech stocks before and made tons of money on biotech before. I feel really good about this company and I know I haven't put more money than I could stand to lose into it. This stock is still priced like it should be: like a potentially very valuable company that might not make it. Everyone needs to get real about the level of speculation and faith that goes into these stocks. Get cool with it, or get out. Keep asking questions, but don't be a negative nancy. I am absolutely psyched about the future of AMBS and cheers to all of you!!