So, let's talk market/product forecasting and how
Post# of 30066
Posted On: 12/16/2014 10:56:32 AM
So, let's talk market/product forecasting and how game-changing products effect a market value. The RUO/IUO market has been estimated to be $150M per year. There are several assumptions that get there based on the number of clinical trials for Alzheimer's, average size of trial (number of patients), and number of times each patient is tested. The tests currently used, for the most part, are less than effective. Clinical trials almost always fail and new Alzheimer's drugs are merely aspirational at this point.
Along comes Lympro for Alzheimer's - a simple blood test with stage independent characteristics that improves overall efficacy and the ability to identify different stages of Alzheimer's. All of this at a fraction of the cost of current diagnostics. So, Pharma companies now have a solution to the main problem - identifying who really has Alzheimer's and who might even have early stage Alzheimer's so they don't waste their money conducting clinical trials.
So, what does this do to potential market value?
Companies with game changers clearly want to steal market share from the current market, but even better, grow the market AND steal share - that's where Lympro sits.
It could be assumed very easily that Lympro benefits could unlock more clinical trials with more patients and a more convenient way to test more often during a clinical trial. This grows the potential market. The general consensus is that the current market is valued at about $150M, but baseline and upside forecasts could very easily assume that Lympro will grow the market, making $150M a floor for the total market value.
I am quite sure that AMBS knows how many more clinical trials and patients that BP are willing to initiate with a good diagnostic on the market. The purpose of this message is to show that $150M is likely a very conservative estimate in the first place and a game changing product like Lympro will likely grow the market even more. So, those saying not enough revenue in RUO are sadly mistaken, especially for a penny biotech.
Just forecasting off the conservative $150M, in my experience, it is not hard to assume that a product like this couldn't take 50% of the market in less than 2 years. I personally think that is conservative due to the nature of this product and what is currently available. That is $75M a year without even growing the market like I assume it could. This is just the RUO market.
But, keep in mind, the larger consumer market is worth in excess of $3B. That is what a potential buyer is willing to pay for if Lympro is purchased. They want the market that has the value that has a 'B' after the total. Until then, the RUO market is plenty big enough for a significant price per share run.
Along comes Lympro for Alzheimer's - a simple blood test with stage independent characteristics that improves overall efficacy and the ability to identify different stages of Alzheimer's. All of this at a fraction of the cost of current diagnostics. So, Pharma companies now have a solution to the main problem - identifying who really has Alzheimer's and who might even have early stage Alzheimer's so they don't waste their money conducting clinical trials.
So, what does this do to potential market value?
Companies with game changers clearly want to steal market share from the current market, but even better, grow the market AND steal share - that's where Lympro sits.
It could be assumed very easily that Lympro benefits could unlock more clinical trials with more patients and a more convenient way to test more often during a clinical trial. This grows the potential market. The general consensus is that the current market is valued at about $150M, but baseline and upside forecasts could very easily assume that Lympro will grow the market, making $150M a floor for the total market value.
I am quite sure that AMBS knows how many more clinical trials and patients that BP are willing to initiate with a good diagnostic on the market. The purpose of this message is to show that $150M is likely a very conservative estimate in the first place and a game changing product like Lympro will likely grow the market even more. So, those saying not enough revenue in RUO are sadly mistaken, especially for a penny biotech.
Just forecasting off the conservative $150M, in my experience, it is not hard to assume that a product like this couldn't take 50% of the market in less than 2 years. I personally think that is conservative due to the nature of this product and what is currently available. That is $75M a year without even growing the market like I assume it could. This is just the RUO market.
But, keep in mind, the larger consumer market is worth in excess of $3B. That is what a potential buyer is willing to pay for if Lympro is purchased. They want the market that has the value that has a 'B' after the total. Until then, the RUO market is plenty big enough for a significant price per share run.
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