I am still waiting for Gerald to increase sharehol
Post# of 30028
Posted On: 09/07/2014 8:33:34 PM
I am still waiting for Gerald to increase shareholder value before I vote to increase his ability to dilute the stock. One billion new authorized shares is huge. I'm not saying I won't vote for it on Sept. 22nd, but the ICON deal did not increase shareholder value. The LymPro data released to date has not increased shareholder value, nor did the revenue guidance in the CC.
These were the 3 big LymPro catalysts I was waiting for in September which would influence how I felt about the billion shares:
1) LymPro Revenue Guidance
2) LymPro Partner
3) LymPro Data
So far these have not increased shareholder value. I think some of us were hoping there would be a JV LymPro Partner with up front money at the end of summer, as Gerald had indicated. I didn't realize he was referring to a master service agreement with no upfront money. Needless to say, that news didn't raise the pps. I'm not criticizing his going with ICON because they are going to move the ball down the field, which is good. But it did not raise shareholder value at present.
The revenue guidance was good but too vague to raise shareholder value. And the bridge data is probably going to present univariant data instead of multivariant data, which will not impress shareholders and most likely will not increase the pps. I have only recently started appreciating the univariant data presented at the Conferences in July, but I don't think most shareholders have been primed to get excited about CD 19 showing 80% accuracy on a stand alone basis. Most shareholders are still waiting for the multivariant spec & sens data in the mid 90s. Unfortunately, we probably won't get that until the end of the validation study in December.
So, the above 3 LymPro catalysts do not appear to be increasing the pps at present. We are moving forward in a positive way, but on September 22nd we are being asked to double the authorized shares from 1 billion to 2 billion!! Has Gerald sufficiently increased shareholder value to the point I feel comfortable giving him this requested increase? Not yet. But we still have another 14 days left.
Perhaps Gerald has something up his sleeve to announce in the next 14 days that will raise our pps? I hope so. I think he can do it. But if we are still trading below .13 cents by the shareholder meeting, I will vote "no." I fully understand my vote will not sway the outcome. It is already a done deal. I am just voicing my thoughts in the event Aimee or anyone from the company is paying attention to shareholder sentiment.
I am still very positive about AMBS' long term prospects. I believe LymPro revenue will start popping up our pps by Q2 of 2015. By Q1 of 2015 we will have a couple of MANF orphans, which will also be nice. But in my opinion, they will only give us a little pop.
I am revising my expectations on the pps downward. I will be happy if we are at .15 cents and do a 1:20 RS in November and up list to the NASDAQ. I think Gerald's media blitz about LymPro and LymPro's revenue from there will get us where we need to go.....gradually. If we get to .50 cents by summer 2015 ($10 after RS) I will be happy. I believe we can do it. We may do better, but based on the results delivered in the last little last couple of months, this is how I've revised my expectations.
I don't think we'll get a MANF partner any easier than we've gotten a JV Partner for LymPro. I think we'll need to do a Phase 1/2 clinical trial for each of the MANF indications before we partner. That is 2 years away. In the mean time, we are about Lympro.
Gerald, please prove me wrong!! You said betting against MANF is like betting against LeBron. Well, LeBron did not deliver during the Finals. He probably will deliver again before he retires, and MANF will have it's day too. But not in the very near future.
Folks, learn to get excited by more realistic increases in pps. I'm starting to like the sound of .15 cents by November. Stop talking about not needing a RS, that is not realistic.
These were the 3 big LymPro catalysts I was waiting for in September which would influence how I felt about the billion shares:
1) LymPro Revenue Guidance
2) LymPro Partner
3) LymPro Data
So far these have not increased shareholder value. I think some of us were hoping there would be a JV LymPro Partner with up front money at the end of summer, as Gerald had indicated. I didn't realize he was referring to a master service agreement with no upfront money. Needless to say, that news didn't raise the pps. I'm not criticizing his going with ICON because they are going to move the ball down the field, which is good. But it did not raise shareholder value at present.
The revenue guidance was good but too vague to raise shareholder value. And the bridge data is probably going to present univariant data instead of multivariant data, which will not impress shareholders and most likely will not increase the pps. I have only recently started appreciating the univariant data presented at the Conferences in July, but I don't think most shareholders have been primed to get excited about CD 19 showing 80% accuracy on a stand alone basis. Most shareholders are still waiting for the multivariant spec & sens data in the mid 90s. Unfortunately, we probably won't get that until the end of the validation study in December.
So, the above 3 LymPro catalysts do not appear to be increasing the pps at present. We are moving forward in a positive way, but on September 22nd we are being asked to double the authorized shares from 1 billion to 2 billion!! Has Gerald sufficiently increased shareholder value to the point I feel comfortable giving him this requested increase? Not yet. But we still have another 14 days left.
Perhaps Gerald has something up his sleeve to announce in the next 14 days that will raise our pps? I hope so. I think he can do it. But if we are still trading below .13 cents by the shareholder meeting, I will vote "no." I fully understand my vote will not sway the outcome. It is already a done deal. I am just voicing my thoughts in the event Aimee or anyone from the company is paying attention to shareholder sentiment.
I am still very positive about AMBS' long term prospects. I believe LymPro revenue will start popping up our pps by Q2 of 2015. By Q1 of 2015 we will have a couple of MANF orphans, which will also be nice. But in my opinion, they will only give us a little pop.
I am revising my expectations on the pps downward. I will be happy if we are at .15 cents and do a 1:20 RS in November and up list to the NASDAQ. I think Gerald's media blitz about LymPro and LymPro's revenue from there will get us where we need to go.....gradually. If we get to .50 cents by summer 2015 ($10 after RS) I will be happy. I believe we can do it. We may do better, but based on the results delivered in the last little last couple of months, this is how I've revised my expectations.
I don't think we'll get a MANF partner any easier than we've gotten a JV Partner for LymPro. I think we'll need to do a Phase 1/2 clinical trial for each of the MANF indications before we partner. That is 2 years away. In the mean time, we are about Lympro.
Gerald, please prove me wrong!! You said betting against MANF is like betting against LeBron. Well, LeBron did not deliver during the Finals. He probably will deliver again before he retires, and MANF will have it's day too. But not in the very near future.
Folks, learn to get excited by more realistic increases in pps. I'm starting to like the sound of .15 cents by November. Stop talking about not needing a RS, that is not realistic.
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