Money is what moves the price substantially. Eithe
Post# of 30029
Posted On: 09/07/2014 12:19:31 PM
Re: Daveludlow #5678
Money is what moves the price substantially. Either a partner or grant money. Orphan designation will also move the price as a BP will likely partner. Price would move in anticipation of a MANF partner.
I do keep stressing that your price estimates are very conservative, even if you just consider Lympro. Let's just assume good data and move beyond that for now. AMBS will partner and upfront money will be secured. Who knows how much as AMBS might spin this thing out and the new company would have Lympro Alzheimer's, CTE, TBI, and NuroPro. A diagnostics company could partner and take a stake in the new diagnostics company for all the products. That would be the mother load.
At the very least, we should expect an upfront payment for Lympro Alzheimers which will make the price jump and settle. CLIA market penetration in my opinion for 2015 could be close to 40-50%. Assumption based off of increased efficacy, stage independence, easiest test to administer, easiest test to measure. The biggest assumption is massive cost reduction for BP conducting the trials. This is likely exit share for 2015 and does not represent total share for the year. Run the math on a $150M CLIA market and a blended total market share of maybe 30% for 2015 and you get around $45M revenues for the year. I think JP's estimates are reasonable and likely represent a floor stock price just based off Lympro.
I do keep stressing that your price estimates are very conservative, even if you just consider Lympro. Let's just assume good data and move beyond that for now. AMBS will partner and upfront money will be secured. Who knows how much as AMBS might spin this thing out and the new company would have Lympro Alzheimer's, CTE, TBI, and NuroPro. A diagnostics company could partner and take a stake in the new diagnostics company for all the products. That would be the mother load.
At the very least, we should expect an upfront payment for Lympro Alzheimers which will make the price jump and settle. CLIA market penetration in my opinion for 2015 could be close to 40-50%. Assumption based off of increased efficacy, stage independence, easiest test to administer, easiest test to measure. The biggest assumption is massive cost reduction for BP conducting the trials. This is likely exit share for 2015 and does not represent total share for the year. Run the math on a $150M CLIA market and a blended total market share of maybe 30% for 2015 and you get around $45M revenues for the year. I think JP's estimates are reasonable and likely represent a floor stock price just based off Lympro.
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