CTIX Discussion 09/01/2014 03:31:05 $CTIX Excelle
Post# of 64072
Posted On: 09/01/2014 4:31:11 AM
CTIX Discussion 09/01/2014 03:31:05 $CTIX
Excellent post INH. Cheers and have a great weekend!
Cheers BioDoc. I've been following your discussions here along with callmecrazy. Very informative. I agree with the long term sentiment. My strategy is to keep a position that will make a difference short term, as well as long term.
CTIX Stock Message Board http://investorshangout.com/Cellceutix-Corpor...TIX-87375/
this error MUST be corrected, please pass it on...
=======================
Quote:
The overarching expanding reality that new kinase pathways have been and might be discovered reveal that Kevetrin's potential to accompany other existing or new multi-kinase inhibitors is a primary consideration for the Cellcetuix (OTCMKTS:CTIX)
About 20 years ago I got really excited about a company that was working on a potent TNF-alpha antagonist that had potential for treating a wide range of conditions. The problem was that the drug was thalidomide, a terrible teratogen. As you can imagine, it was hard for many to take this company seriously in late 1993. I understood the story. I understood the science. If I recall correctly, they got compassionate use approval for treatment of leprosy but were really focused on getting approval for treating multiple myeloma. Long story short- that company was Celgene. And that 10,000 shares I owned in September of 1993 (about $70,000 worth) would now be worth $23,591,443.67 if I am to believe this historical calculator:
Celgene calculator
I'd like to tell you that I can verify this because this is the value of my account but I can't. I sold Celgene for a small gain because I was looking for more near-term price action and saw what I thought were some really great short term opportunities. Impatience of youth! Fortunately, I got some friends in who were more patient than I and they made millions.
I'm older (but not that old), more patient, maybe a bit more forgetful, and very, very confident that I will be selling my Cellceutix shares at prices much, much higher than $7.50.
Best of luck!
Doc,
thanks for the reply and the link. I just dipped into the link and decided better to read it tomorrow with a fresh brain.
I emailed Leo Ehrlich a few months ago about prospects for a clinical trial. I received a prompt but noncommittal reply. Subsequent PRs make me optimistic about time frame. My son-in-law is being treated mainly at Dana Farber. I am hoping that when B OM trials begin, DF will be one of the locations.
best,
Tom
Tom- I'm sorry to hear about your son-in-law. I'd like to think that B-OM could potentially be preventative for some and palliative for others but that may be wishful thinking. I hesitate to think 'curative' because to me that suggests that the patient has developed lesions and the medicine 'fixes' the lesions. Much better if we can prevent it and limit the tissue damage. If B-OM can limit the severity and duration of the lesions then patients will do so much better.
Unfortunately, it's unlikely that B-OM will be approved at the time your son-in-law could benefit from it. Also, for as promising as drugs such as B-OM may look in early trials, most do not make it to market. I'm extremely optimistic but we don't have enough data to know for sure.
Here's a link that you may find helpful:
Prevention and Treatment of Oral Mucositis
Best of luck.
A slow smoking Chillin Moose cigar. It starts out a bit rough but the closer to the end the better the smoke.
Anyway, not my choice cigar but an example of how things can change. If you're trying to valuate a company in whole thinking everything they're working on will be passed with flying colors I think you're putting the cart way before the horse. When I first started reading your post I went into hyper drive trying to understand where you were coming from.
We're at step two being in Phase 1 with K. The expansion and visibility Kevetrin gains (and has gained) with successful efficacy is immeasurable at this point imo. Considering combination therapies and other trials are already standing by. Not a done deal but reason to be optimistic. The anticipation is clear but I ere on the side of patience.
A little patience doesn't hurt.
Just going from memory I figured a pps of around $4 - $4.75 for ph2b for B conclusion. I may be more conservative than most. That's PRE data btw. providing all goes as expected.
Interesting post BioDoc
Thank you both for zoning in on oral mucositis. My son-in-law will undergo radiation and chemotherapy before undergoing a bone marrow or hematopoietec stem cell cell transplant in an estimated 12 months. A certain side effect is the oral mucositis. He has myelofibrosis, a form of bone marrow cancer.
I think what both of you are touching on comes down to whether B can be effective as palliative or curative. I will post a link that goes into medical terminology way over my head. I hope that one of you or someone here can determine which way brilacidin is likely to be effective.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j....784.x/full
TIA, Tom
I have said it before and I will say it again. Nobody calls it like TheDane...
And as we grow nearer to the B report some are already straddling the line on the field and that's ok.
Mark me in the column for equivalence and a more than ever fired up Leo emerging.
Buyout would probably not occur until some of combo therapies with K are wrapping up phase 2. Don't want another PolyHeist.
Perhaps reformulate is either the wrong word or too strong a word. Maybe 'tweak' would be better word. At any rate, I can't imagine Menon staying with 28 days without at least making an attempt to get that number down, but if B-OM's 28 day dosing regimen turns out to be the most efficacious than so be it.
A "little higher" because that's when the $7.25 buyout occurs?
It's getting pretty interesting when we get a bashing campaign saying the company will be bought for $7.25 in the next year. Normally what you hear from a bash is "CEO is a liar" or "the company is worthless" and such like that. Now we have, "no, CTIX is not worth $3billion and will be bought out for $7.25/ share within 12 months.
Excellent strategy to drive investors away!
Go CTIX!
Hi J, I am not all that bullish about anything significant happening on/or before the September 9 conference, but Leo is probably holding some tidbits for it.
However, IMHO, everything changes starting in Mid-November 2014. Actaully me and Big K kinda agree on one thing, he sees $6.00 in the spring of 2015, I see a little higher by the summer of 2015.
What is the significance of the November date?
Big K, just a difference of opinion. The current market value of CTIX, all in is about 260 Million. In your opinion the current market value should be 3.2 Billion.
I've stated the current price should be $4 to $4.50, thereby, all in, its 680 Million and Lilly will buy us out within the next 9 months for 7.25 MAX, or about 1.2 Billion.
You cannot value and compare CTIX, with K in 1 to a drug company with a drug in 3. Massive difference in valuations. If K,P,B where all in 3, its a totally different story and the stock would not be selling at $2.05.
We get bought out because of the enormous potential and because CTIX has many eyes on it.
Anyway, all the best to you and your wife, enjoy your evening. Although we may have some differences of opinion, ultimately we are on the same team, I am putting my money where my mouth is, as I continue to buy every week, and whatever happens we will all make money with CTIX, it just seems to be a question of when and how much. IMHO, very soon, fireworks start the end of November.
All the best.
I'd be surprised if they reformulate B-OM for a shorter course. It makes sense to me to use an oral rinse until the tissues are no longer vulnerable. Either way, I'm extremely optimistic.
I totally agree with you about K and B. I have the most uncertainty about P though the animal studies are really impressive. Why is Prurisol so effective whereas abacavir does nothing? Still a mystery to me though I'm perfectly happy to go along for the ride. I trust management's judgement- I can wait for the data.
Yes, the unblinding of the P2B data in Q4 (which starts in 31 days) will be exciting and, hopefully, uplifting for the share price. Kepivance's rare use and narrowly defined label and the probable inferiority of SGX942 gives me greater confidence that B-OM will dominate the U.S. OM market.
I believe Dr. Menon will reformulate B-OM to be just as effective in, perhaps 6-7 days, as it was in the 28 days in the preclinical. Throw in a fast track designation and the fact that B-OM is administered orally as a rinse and it should all add up to a greatly reduced time to market.
If Leo's 30kg order is any indication, I believe the excellent P2B data will yield a pharma deal with an upfront payment of $50M-$100M. Perhaps I am too confident, but this is something of a done deal in my mind and mentally I am looking "down-the-road" at how soon we can get another big money deal behind B. I think B-OM will be that deal.
Our platform drugs, K & B will produce a lot of clinical trials, and while some may be paid for by others, we will still need a lot of cash. Leo has done a wonderful job of not diluting this stock to death and I'd like to see that continue. Better to write a check than to use an Aspire credit card.
Excellent post INH. Cheers and have a great weekend!
Cheers BioDoc. I've been following your discussions here along with callmecrazy. Very informative. I agree with the long term sentiment. My strategy is to keep a position that will make a difference short term, as well as long term.
CTIX Stock Message Board http://investorshangout.com/Cellceutix-Corpor...TIX-87375/
this error MUST be corrected, please pass it on...
=======================
Quote:
The overarching expanding reality that new kinase pathways have been and might be discovered reveal that Kevetrin's potential to accompany other existing or new multi-kinase inhibitors is a primary consideration for the Cellcetuix (OTCMKTS:CTIX)
About 20 years ago I got really excited about a company that was working on a potent TNF-alpha antagonist that had potential for treating a wide range of conditions. The problem was that the drug was thalidomide, a terrible teratogen. As you can imagine, it was hard for many to take this company seriously in late 1993. I understood the story. I understood the science. If I recall correctly, they got compassionate use approval for treatment of leprosy but were really focused on getting approval for treating multiple myeloma. Long story short- that company was Celgene. And that 10,000 shares I owned in September of 1993 (about $70,000 worth) would now be worth $23,591,443.67 if I am to believe this historical calculator:
Celgene calculator
I'd like to tell you that I can verify this because this is the value of my account but I can't. I sold Celgene for a small gain because I was looking for more near-term price action and saw what I thought were some really great short term opportunities. Impatience of youth! Fortunately, I got some friends in who were more patient than I and they made millions.
I'm older (but not that old), more patient, maybe a bit more forgetful, and very, very confident that I will be selling my Cellceutix shares at prices much, much higher than $7.50.
Best of luck!
Doc,
thanks for the reply and the link. I just dipped into the link and decided better to read it tomorrow with a fresh brain.
I emailed Leo Ehrlich a few months ago about prospects for a clinical trial. I received a prompt but noncommittal reply. Subsequent PRs make me optimistic about time frame. My son-in-law is being treated mainly at Dana Farber. I am hoping that when B OM trials begin, DF will be one of the locations.
best,
Tom
Tom- I'm sorry to hear about your son-in-law. I'd like to think that B-OM could potentially be preventative for some and palliative for others but that may be wishful thinking. I hesitate to think 'curative' because to me that suggests that the patient has developed lesions and the medicine 'fixes' the lesions. Much better if we can prevent it and limit the tissue damage. If B-OM can limit the severity and duration of the lesions then patients will do so much better.
Unfortunately, it's unlikely that B-OM will be approved at the time your son-in-law could benefit from it. Also, for as promising as drugs such as B-OM may look in early trials, most do not make it to market. I'm extremely optimistic but we don't have enough data to know for sure.
Here's a link that you may find helpful:
Prevention and Treatment of Oral Mucositis
Best of luck.
A slow smoking Chillin Moose cigar. It starts out a bit rough but the closer to the end the better the smoke.
Anyway, not my choice cigar but an example of how things can change. If you're trying to valuate a company in whole thinking everything they're working on will be passed with flying colors I think you're putting the cart way before the horse. When I first started reading your post I went into hyper drive trying to understand where you were coming from.
We're at step two being in Phase 1 with K. The expansion and visibility Kevetrin gains (and has gained) with successful efficacy is immeasurable at this point imo. Considering combination therapies and other trials are already standing by. Not a done deal but reason to be optimistic. The anticipation is clear but I ere on the side of patience.
A little patience doesn't hurt.
Just going from memory I figured a pps of around $4 - $4.75 for ph2b for B conclusion. I may be more conservative than most. That's PRE data btw. providing all goes as expected.
Interesting post BioDoc
Thank you both for zoning in on oral mucositis. My son-in-law will undergo radiation and chemotherapy before undergoing a bone marrow or hematopoietec stem cell cell transplant in an estimated 12 months. A certain side effect is the oral mucositis. He has myelofibrosis, a form of bone marrow cancer.
I think what both of you are touching on comes down to whether B can be effective as palliative or curative. I will post a link that goes into medical terminology way over my head. I hope that one of you or someone here can determine which way brilacidin is likely to be effective.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j....784.x/full
TIA, Tom
I have said it before and I will say it again. Nobody calls it like TheDane...
And as we grow nearer to the B report some are already straddling the line on the field and that's ok.
Mark me in the column for equivalence and a more than ever fired up Leo emerging.
Buyout would probably not occur until some of combo therapies with K are wrapping up phase 2. Don't want another PolyHeist.
Perhaps reformulate is either the wrong word or too strong a word. Maybe 'tweak' would be better word. At any rate, I can't imagine Menon staying with 28 days without at least making an attempt to get that number down, but if B-OM's 28 day dosing regimen turns out to be the most efficacious than so be it.
A "little higher" because that's when the $7.25 buyout occurs?
It's getting pretty interesting when we get a bashing campaign saying the company will be bought for $7.25 in the next year. Normally what you hear from a bash is "CEO is a liar" or "the company is worthless" and such like that. Now we have, "no, CTIX is not worth $3billion and will be bought out for $7.25/ share within 12 months.
Excellent strategy to drive investors away!
Go CTIX!
Hi J, I am not all that bullish about anything significant happening on/or before the September 9 conference, but Leo is probably holding some tidbits for it.
However, IMHO, everything changes starting in Mid-November 2014. Actaully me and Big K kinda agree on one thing, he sees $6.00 in the spring of 2015, I see a little higher by the summer of 2015.
What is the significance of the November date?
Big K, just a difference of opinion. The current market value of CTIX, all in is about 260 Million. In your opinion the current market value should be 3.2 Billion.
I've stated the current price should be $4 to $4.50, thereby, all in, its 680 Million and Lilly will buy us out within the next 9 months for 7.25 MAX, or about 1.2 Billion.
You cannot value and compare CTIX, with K in 1 to a drug company with a drug in 3. Massive difference in valuations. If K,P,B where all in 3, its a totally different story and the stock would not be selling at $2.05.
We get bought out because of the enormous potential and because CTIX has many eyes on it.
Anyway, all the best to you and your wife, enjoy your evening. Although we may have some differences of opinion, ultimately we are on the same team, I am putting my money where my mouth is, as I continue to buy every week, and whatever happens we will all make money with CTIX, it just seems to be a question of when and how much. IMHO, very soon, fireworks start the end of November.
All the best.
I'd be surprised if they reformulate B-OM for a shorter course. It makes sense to me to use an oral rinse until the tissues are no longer vulnerable. Either way, I'm extremely optimistic.
I totally agree with you about K and B. I have the most uncertainty about P though the animal studies are really impressive. Why is Prurisol so effective whereas abacavir does nothing? Still a mystery to me though I'm perfectly happy to go along for the ride. I trust management's judgement- I can wait for the data.
Yes, the unblinding of the P2B data in Q4 (which starts in 31 days) will be exciting and, hopefully, uplifting for the share price. Kepivance's rare use and narrowly defined label and the probable inferiority of SGX942 gives me greater confidence that B-OM will dominate the U.S. OM market.
I believe Dr. Menon will reformulate B-OM to be just as effective in, perhaps 6-7 days, as it was in the 28 days in the preclinical. Throw in a fast track designation and the fact that B-OM is administered orally as a rinse and it should all add up to a greatly reduced time to market.
If Leo's 30kg order is any indication, I believe the excellent P2B data will yield a pharma deal with an upfront payment of $50M-$100M. Perhaps I am too confident, but this is something of a done deal in my mind and mentally I am looking "down-the-road" at how soon we can get another big money deal behind B. I think B-OM will be that deal.
Our platform drugs, K & B will produce a lot of clinical trials, and while some may be paid for by others, we will still need a lot of cash. Leo has done a wonderful job of not diluting this stock to death and I'd like to see that continue. Better to write a check than to use an Aspire credit card.
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