biotechexpert
Post# of 30025
Posted On: 08/30/2014 10:10:14 PM
you wrote:
Biotechexpert, when you showed up in March on the Yahoo message board I was skeptical. I thought here is either a) another basher trying to gain instant credibility on the mb with the title “biotechexpert” and seeking to manipulate opinion on the message board or b) someone with a big ego or some insecurity and prone to questionable judgment. Yeah, I practice amateur psychology – it’s helped me keep my money.
This topic really has been covered to death but I wanted to add this ... when I listened to Dr. Kirby’s lympro presentation I was very impressed – he struck me as a competent, no-BS scientist. He seemed objective, even humble maybe and I heard no apology – just Kirby providing context – describing this as preliminary data to an audience that seemed very interested.
For Kirby to apologize would mean that he believed 1 of 2 things:
- the lympro data he was about to present was meaningless and therefore he was apologizing for wasting the audience’s time (clearly, not the case as evident from the rest of his comments)
- the data was faulty and he was apologizing for reporting fraudulent science (eh, the stupid explanation. Career suicide).
I’ve read a little about behavioral economics which deals with the tricks our mind plays on our decision making ability and apparently, we all struggle with overconfidence but it is even more of an obstacle for experts. I’m sure I read somewhere that people who consider themselves an expert in their field – especially people who've earned an advanced degree – tend to struggle more with overconfidence than the non-experts. I believe medical doctors tend to have worse investing returns vs. non-doctors as a result of overconfidence in their investment decisions. I could be wrong about that, but if biotechexpert can claim he heard an apology and provides zero evidence than I can play fast and loose with facts as well.
Quote:
Why don't you post the actual transcript by Dr. Kirby where he apologizes for the small and incomplete data set
Biotechexpert, when you showed up in March on the Yahoo message board I was skeptical. I thought here is either a) another basher trying to gain instant credibility on the mb with the title “biotechexpert” and seeking to manipulate opinion on the message board or b) someone with a big ego or some insecurity and prone to questionable judgment. Yeah, I practice amateur psychology – it’s helped me keep my money.
This topic really has been covered to death but I wanted to add this ... when I listened to Dr. Kirby’s lympro presentation I was very impressed – he struck me as a competent, no-BS scientist. He seemed objective, even humble maybe and I heard no apology – just Kirby providing context – describing this as preliminary data to an audience that seemed very interested.
For Kirby to apologize would mean that he believed 1 of 2 things:
- the lympro data he was about to present was meaningless and therefore he was apologizing for wasting the audience’s time (clearly, not the case as evident from the rest of his comments)
- the data was faulty and he was apologizing for reporting fraudulent science (eh, the stupid explanation. Career suicide).
I’ve read a little about behavioral economics which deals with the tricks our mind plays on our decision making ability and apparently, we all struggle with overconfidence but it is even more of an obstacle for experts. I’m sure I read somewhere that people who consider themselves an expert in their field – especially people who've earned an advanced degree – tend to struggle more with overconfidence than the non-experts. I believe medical doctors tend to have worse investing returns vs. non-doctors as a result of overconfidence in their investment decisions. I could be wrong about that, but if biotechexpert can claim he heard an apology and provides zero evidence than I can play fast and loose with facts as well.
Quote:
In general, however, you should not take assertive and confident people at their own evaluation unless you have independent reason to believe that they know what they are talking about. Unfortunately, this advice is difficult to follow: overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion. -- Daniel Kahneman
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/do...l&_r=0
Quote:
Many investors also are overconfident, experts say. Doctors, for instance, often don't understand that professional investors' skills also are specialized, according to Mr. Swedroe [investment advisor]. When a doctor talks about picking stocks, Mr. Swedroe says he responds, "Would you let me operate on your patients?"
online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304330904579137410675036086
Quote:
The scary part is that Kahneman demonstrates that medical professionals vastly overestimate their ability to make good diagnoses. One study found that clinicians who were "completely certain" of their diagnosis were wrong 40 percent of the time.
www.cbsnews.com/news/new-book-sheds-bright-light-on-investor-behavior/
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