CTIX Discussion 08/17/2014 08:27:04 $CTIX
Thanks for the great post as always. It makes perfect sense.
1 Last thing I would like to add. Most of the Vol on Friday occurred above the $1.77 mark.. That is good because new buyers are taking shares that were mostly bought in the $1.60's or lower from older shareholders and now forming a new higher base. With Sept quickly approaching i am expecting more concrete news in the next 3-4 weeks, and some bigger money is quietly and strategically beating the herd here and accumulating CTIX..
Good Day to you INH!
Regards
Smitter.
How could he have the information giving him optimism if the trial is truly blinded? Maybe he is just optimistic based on their knowledge of Brilla before the trial. Certainly they expected it to be successful.
Anyway...it's all coming together, as they say.
Go CTIX!
It's no secret, I've been sounding the bullish charge for a few weeks now, mostly based on observed trading, all technical.
Looking back at the last few weeks, the charts confirm this bullish activity. Two observations which have kept things in doubt have been low volume days and tight range of trading. It's been a slow, uneven grind upwards, with sticky and rising support.
When I am correct about a significant move, I am often a bit early to the party, because I am on the lookout for early, subtle signals-usually from unusual trade and MM activity.
Most significant moves tend to be fast and furious. Often, what precedes the moves are slow and subtle. Smart money, market participants do not want to give up what they know to technicians. But, sometimes they drop clues. Just before the herd gets wind; then, they will drop pretenses.
It appears to me, CTIX is at a critical technical point, and should be tested at current levels. The testing has actually been underway for days, how much more remains and the outcome are uncertainties. On the bullish side are: 1) Moves higher have been on the greater volume, 2) Support has been sticky and rising. Even when the BID drops, often times the ASK stays solid. Support and resistance have been literally inching up, a penny at a time. and 3) Volume is rising (last few weeks). On the bearish side: 1) Price has been pushing the upper Bollinger band (daily), piercing it Friday. The upper Bollinger band is a natural point of resistance. 2) Stochastics are reaching overbought levels, another natural point for growing resistance, and 3) At each new higher level, there will be new sellers which adds supply. Some sellers are holdouts from prior failed rallies, and some are profit taking from the recent run. There will always be a natural amount of selling.
I think the wild card being played currently is Smart Money. What will they be doing? How will they be playing things? Well, I think they have displayed their desire to accumulate. Bullish. I think they are positioning and not desperate. Careful about reading into every little market move. The trick for Smart Money will be to accumulate without moving the price too far too quickly. So, I anticipate some uneven trading still to come. When the dam breaks, it will be obvious to all, and a bit late for many. This all takes into account, my many assumptions are in play.
I would not fault technicians for taking profit at this level. It is a natural point. I will be sitting on my profits; because, I sense the current run has not ended. I have seen no evidence for this. As is the norm with CTIX, mostly boring, but can go from the freezer to the broiler quickly.
From a fundamental view, things just get better and better. I understand why some will not sell.
I think I've had enough. Go CTIX!
Given that Leo was very very optimistic about the results of the B trial in a recent PR, I bet that B will be as effective as Dapto with a single dose. Leo would be completely foolish to be as optimistic if he did not have information hinting that the results will be very good.
Sorry if this was already posted but Ellaruth strikes again (from yesterday morning).....Call Me Crazy, Big K, Dr. J and Cabel get the press this time!
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/21116141-el...ier-quotes
George - thanks for referring to tho article
I am one of the early investors in 2013 who invested based on such articles - still no results in terms of returns
However I invested with clear speculative risk in mind vs K potential. In my mind CTIX for me is a 10 bagger and I am looking at target of 20. I expected it to happen by end of 2014 when I initially invested in early 2013 - now it seems that will be around early 2016.
So while I read the big chain of debate - I am kind of aloof now as - most of the points being fought are beyond our control.
I am patiently waiting for K ph 1 results and then decide if my gamble paid off. Adding B to the equation has raised chances of this being 10 bagger for me.
Just my thoughts
Go CTIX
I was about to go full honest here...
...but then I saw that Boston terrier hurtling through space and I lost all sense of honesty and reason. On the plus side, I am now able to fully relate to George.
Is it Monday yet?
Wait, WTF did I just say?
Read and think!!! Brilacidin ABSSSI is currently the lead drug. Results will be ready within weeks. Kevetrin has at least one more cohort which means 3 more months and another 6 months for final data. Brilacidin is a billion dollar drug with preliminary results ready for the R&R in 3 weeks.
Why are we speculating on K when we won't know much more about it for another 9 to 12 months? Why not speculate on B outcomes? Will B be as effective as Dapto but with a single dose? What do you think? Please give your honest opinion only.
Read then think!!!
"...Prior data is in favor of Kevetrin showing enough safety so that I think the Phase I trial, when completed, will advance the compound and the stock. Here I have taken a careful look at the numbers published previously. With Kevetrin, the situation is the opposite of Prurisol. There is a greater reason to be confident about effectiveness. The unknown is toxicity. One of the facts that stands out when one peruses the reported Phase I data is that the first cohort was started at a very low dose compared to that in the reported pre-clinical studies. The beginning low dose makes sense when this is the first use in a live human of a new compound. However, we wonder if and when it will get to concentrations enough to produce therapeutic benefit. As has been pointed out on forums elsewhere, the beginning dose for the Dana-Farber trial was only a 60th of the dose used to generate the positive pre-clinical data (200mg/kg in mice) reported. Also, the pre-clinical studies employed intraperitoneal administration and the Phase I study uses iv infusion. The two modes of administration are likely to be associated with different effects in regard to drug behavior and distribution, as well as toxicity.
Dosage is considered better correlated to body surface area, and that is how the Phase I dosage has been reported. The first round was 10mg/m2. The relationship between mg/kg and BSA in various animals and people has been worked out (FASEB J. 22, 659-661 [2007]) and 200mg/kg in mice corresponds to 600 mg/m2 in humans. Here are two big questions to which we should find the answer when the Phase I trial is complete and results are reported: can patients tolerate a dose of 600mg/m2, and is that high a dose necessary for effectiveness? Will Kevetrin have anti-cancer effect at doses at which adverse effects are tolerable for the majority of patients? Here I find the following reported toxicity to dogs and rats to be encouraging.
A GLP [=good laboratory practice] repeated dose toxicity study in rats with 5 weekly doses of Kevetrin, in the range of 60 to 120 mg/kg given intravenously showed a NOAEL [=no observed adverse effect level] of Kevetrin of 90 mg/kg.
A GLP repeated dose toxicity study in dogs with 5 weekly doses of Kevetrin, in the range of 5 to 60 mg/kg given intravenously showed a NOAEL of 5 mg/kg.
According to this, no adverse effects were observable in rats at a dose of 90mg/kg and in dogs at 5 mg/kg. Here is where CTIX owners would want people to be more like rats than dogs because 90 mg/kg in rats translates to a BSA based dose of 540mg/m2, almost the same as the reported dose with positive data in mouse model studies, but 5 mg/kg in dogs translates to 100 mg/m2 which is a sixth of that. I am afraid that though behaviorally we often approach the rat measures, physiologically the dog is closer. Even so, these are NOAEL, meaning, no observed adverse effect level. There is room to go higher where some adverse effects may be seen. The full Phase I data from the study under way at Dana-Farber needs to be awaited on this, but if I had to bet (which is what a buyer is doing now) based on what has been reported, the odds are in Kevetrin's favor to show benefit at tolerated doses.
As has been written by many before, there are many good reasons to be excited about this company and its products, both from the perspective of cures and from that of investment. If Kevetrin is successful, I think it will only be the first step in a development process that one may compare to penicillin going to ampicillin and amoxicillin, where the company's patents might afford wide protection from competition. However, caution is in order for that first step. This is a new molecule. The pharmacokinetic and safety data in humans is only beginning to be collected.
In a way, to speculate on this kind of stuff ahead of actual data may seem rash, and if you feel that way, you are really reading the wrong kind of articles related to stocks. You want established companies with a record of revenue and profit, even growth. This one ain't there yet. One is not sure if it will get there. If and when it gets there one should be able to buy it at 10 times today's share price, but with the mind more at ease about one's investment...."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1567392-cellc...of-success
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
CTIX Latest DD (Updated)
"* Kevetrin Phase 1--Cohort 8 in progress @ 215mg/m2--No MTD yet established--http://cellceutix.com/cellceutix-clinical-trial-of-anti-cancer-drug-kevetrin-entering-eighth-cohort/#sthash.6pctRV6R.dpbs
* K in combination against renal completed most if not all preclinical work.
* K in combination against leukemia (AML) already [completed] preclinical work at UofB and a Phase 1b/2 Clinical Trial is poised to start once MTD is established in K/P1
* K against Retinoblastoma announced in March 2013 will commence after MTD is established in P1
* Prurisol bridge study complete--Awaiting final report before submission to FDA for P2 trial--Anticipated start date 1Q/15--http://cellceutix.com/cellceutix-anti-psoriasis-drug-prurisol-meets-primary-endpoint-of-clinical-trial/#sthash.fYZzgvRO.dpbs
* B against ABSSSI near 100% enrollment and treated NO AE's--Expected completion within a couple of weeks
* B OM Preparing to submit to FDA for approval of P2 trial--http://cellceutix.com/cellceutix-prepares-for-phase-2-clinical-trial-of-brilacidin-om-for-oral-mucositis/#sthash.SpoCUTpB.dpbs--
* B ocular formulation studies underway at Dr Reddy's and should complete within the next few to 6 months.
* B otic also in formulation studies at Dr Reddy's
* B DFI just announced high efficacy and should begin final preclinical work ahead of clinical testing. "
*B NY/ NJ universities material transfer agreement defensive mimetics
*Cellceutix in June, 2014, entered into a research agreement with a renowned non-profit research institution for studies of anti-fungal compounds in Cellceutix’s portfolio. The research is to be funded by a $1.5 million grant from the National Institute of Health, Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) to the non-profit institution.
I figure this is a good time to rehash this as there are new eyes abound lately.
Thanks to Alex for putting most of this together.
Thanks for the list Farrell! My favorite is #6, especially this statement:
*Stabilization was achieved at low doses in terminal patients with relapsed tumors that were resistant to current chemotherapies
Since the trial was in the 5th cohort at that time, the "low doses" had to be 75 mg/m2 or less. Now cohort 8 is almost 3x the dosage. This is the reason why I am really looking forward to this year's R&R. Only three more weeks.
vip,
that also makes this interesting to watch play out. Will it form a handle or just breakout. Timing of news could play a big part in that. The size of friday's move and closing a fair distance above the upper bb could favor the forming of a handle. Especially, since historically CTIX gets back inside the bb's very quickly.
Would be a nice spot for a bull flag too.
Thanks for the discussion vip and ee. Have a great finish to your weekend and Trade Green.
Cup and handle, waiting for the cup to form completely at 1.90 then a short handle and the way we go.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=cup...ntinuation
Quote:
BigKahuna Friday, 10/05/12 06:53:29 PM
Re: None
Thanks for the great post as always. It makes perfect sense.
1 Last thing I would like to add. Most of the Vol on Friday occurred above the $1.77 mark.. That is good because new buyers are taking shares that were mostly bought in the $1.60's or lower from older shareholders and now forming a new higher base. With Sept quickly approaching i am expecting more concrete news in the next 3-4 weeks, and some bigger money is quietly and strategically beating the herd here and accumulating CTIX..
Good Day to you INH!
Regards
Smitter.
How could he have the information giving him optimism if the trial is truly blinded? Maybe he is just optimistic based on their knowledge of Brilla before the trial. Certainly they expected it to be successful.
Anyway...it's all coming together, as they say.
Go CTIX!
It's no secret, I've been sounding the bullish charge for a few weeks now, mostly based on observed trading, all technical.
Looking back at the last few weeks, the charts confirm this bullish activity. Two observations which have kept things in doubt have been low volume days and tight range of trading. It's been a slow, uneven grind upwards, with sticky and rising support.
When I am correct about a significant move, I am often a bit early to the party, because I am on the lookout for early, subtle signals-usually from unusual trade and MM activity.
Most significant moves tend to be fast and furious. Often, what precedes the moves are slow and subtle. Smart money, market participants do not want to give up what they know to technicians. But, sometimes they drop clues. Just before the herd gets wind; then, they will drop pretenses.
It appears to me, CTIX is at a critical technical point, and should be tested at current levels. The testing has actually been underway for days, how much more remains and the outcome are uncertainties. On the bullish side are: 1) Moves higher have been on the greater volume, 2) Support has been sticky and rising. Even when the BID drops, often times the ASK stays solid. Support and resistance have been literally inching up, a penny at a time. and 3) Volume is rising (last few weeks). On the bearish side: 1) Price has been pushing the upper Bollinger band (daily), piercing it Friday. The upper Bollinger band is a natural point of resistance. 2) Stochastics are reaching overbought levels, another natural point for growing resistance, and 3) At each new higher level, there will be new sellers which adds supply. Some sellers are holdouts from prior failed rallies, and some are profit taking from the recent run. There will always be a natural amount of selling.
I think the wild card being played currently is Smart Money. What will they be doing? How will they be playing things? Well, I think they have displayed their desire to accumulate. Bullish. I think they are positioning and not desperate. Careful about reading into every little market move. The trick for Smart Money will be to accumulate without moving the price too far too quickly. So, I anticipate some uneven trading still to come. When the dam breaks, it will be obvious to all, and a bit late for many. This all takes into account, my many assumptions are in play.
I would not fault technicians for taking profit at this level. It is a natural point. I will be sitting on my profits; because, I sense the current run has not ended. I have seen no evidence for this. As is the norm with CTIX, mostly boring, but can go from the freezer to the broiler quickly.
From a fundamental view, things just get better and better. I understand why some will not sell.
I think I've had enough. Go CTIX!
Given that Leo was very very optimistic about the results of the B trial in a recent PR, I bet that B will be as effective as Dapto with a single dose. Leo would be completely foolish to be as optimistic if he did not have information hinting that the results will be very good.
Sorry if this was already posted but Ellaruth strikes again (from yesterday morning).....Call Me Crazy, Big K, Dr. J and Cabel get the press this time!
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/21116141-el...ier-quotes
George - thanks for referring to tho article
I am one of the early investors in 2013 who invested based on such articles - still no results in terms of returns
However I invested with clear speculative risk in mind vs K potential. In my mind CTIX for me is a 10 bagger and I am looking at target of 20. I expected it to happen by end of 2014 when I initially invested in early 2013 - now it seems that will be around early 2016.
So while I read the big chain of debate - I am kind of aloof now as - most of the points being fought are beyond our control.
I am patiently waiting for K ph 1 results and then decide if my gamble paid off. Adding B to the equation has raised chances of this being 10 bagger for me.
Just my thoughts
Go CTIX
I was about to go full honest here...
...but then I saw that Boston terrier hurtling through space and I lost all sense of honesty and reason. On the plus side, I am now able to fully relate to George.
Is it Monday yet?
Wait, WTF did I just say?
Read and think!!! Brilacidin ABSSSI is currently the lead drug. Results will be ready within weeks. Kevetrin has at least one more cohort which means 3 more months and another 6 months for final data. Brilacidin is a billion dollar drug with preliminary results ready for the R&R in 3 weeks.
Why are we speculating on K when we won't know much more about it for another 9 to 12 months? Why not speculate on B outcomes? Will B be as effective as Dapto but with a single dose? What do you think? Please give your honest opinion only.
Read then think!!!
"...Prior data is in favor of Kevetrin showing enough safety so that I think the Phase I trial, when completed, will advance the compound and the stock. Here I have taken a careful look at the numbers published previously. With Kevetrin, the situation is the opposite of Prurisol. There is a greater reason to be confident about effectiveness. The unknown is toxicity. One of the facts that stands out when one peruses the reported Phase I data is that the first cohort was started at a very low dose compared to that in the reported pre-clinical studies. The beginning low dose makes sense when this is the first use in a live human of a new compound. However, we wonder if and when it will get to concentrations enough to produce therapeutic benefit. As has been pointed out on forums elsewhere, the beginning dose for the Dana-Farber trial was only a 60th of the dose used to generate the positive pre-clinical data (200mg/kg in mice) reported. Also, the pre-clinical studies employed intraperitoneal administration and the Phase I study uses iv infusion. The two modes of administration are likely to be associated with different effects in regard to drug behavior and distribution, as well as toxicity.
Dosage is considered better correlated to body surface area, and that is how the Phase I dosage has been reported. The first round was 10mg/m2. The relationship between mg/kg and BSA in various animals and people has been worked out (FASEB J. 22, 659-661 [2007]) and 200mg/kg in mice corresponds to 600 mg/m2 in humans. Here are two big questions to which we should find the answer when the Phase I trial is complete and results are reported: can patients tolerate a dose of 600mg/m2, and is that high a dose necessary for effectiveness? Will Kevetrin have anti-cancer effect at doses at which adverse effects are tolerable for the majority of patients? Here I find the following reported toxicity to dogs and rats to be encouraging.
A GLP [=good laboratory practice] repeated dose toxicity study in rats with 5 weekly doses of Kevetrin, in the range of 60 to 120 mg/kg given intravenously showed a NOAEL [=no observed adverse effect level] of Kevetrin of 90 mg/kg.
A GLP repeated dose toxicity study in dogs with 5 weekly doses of Kevetrin, in the range of 5 to 60 mg/kg given intravenously showed a NOAEL of 5 mg/kg.
According to this, no adverse effects were observable in rats at a dose of 90mg/kg and in dogs at 5 mg/kg. Here is where CTIX owners would want people to be more like rats than dogs because 90 mg/kg in rats translates to a BSA based dose of 540mg/m2, almost the same as the reported dose with positive data in mouse model studies, but 5 mg/kg in dogs translates to 100 mg/m2 which is a sixth of that. I am afraid that though behaviorally we often approach the rat measures, physiologically the dog is closer. Even so, these are NOAEL, meaning, no observed adverse effect level. There is room to go higher where some adverse effects may be seen. The full Phase I data from the study under way at Dana-Farber needs to be awaited on this, but if I had to bet (which is what a buyer is doing now) based on what has been reported, the odds are in Kevetrin's favor to show benefit at tolerated doses.
As has been written by many before, there are many good reasons to be excited about this company and its products, both from the perspective of cures and from that of investment. If Kevetrin is successful, I think it will only be the first step in a development process that one may compare to penicillin going to ampicillin and amoxicillin, where the company's patents might afford wide protection from competition. However, caution is in order for that first step. This is a new molecule. The pharmacokinetic and safety data in humans is only beginning to be collected.
In a way, to speculate on this kind of stuff ahead of actual data may seem rash, and if you feel that way, you are really reading the wrong kind of articles related to stocks. You want established companies with a record of revenue and profit, even growth. This one ain't there yet. One is not sure if it will get there. If and when it gets there one should be able to buy it at 10 times today's share price, but with the mind more at ease about one's investment...."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1567392-cellc...of-success
Good luck and GOD bless,
George
CTIX Latest DD (Updated)
"* Kevetrin Phase 1--Cohort 8 in progress @ 215mg/m2--No MTD yet established--http://cellceutix.com/cellceutix-clinical-trial-of-anti-cancer-drug-kevetrin-entering-eighth-cohort/#sthash.6pctRV6R.dpbs
* K in combination against renal completed most if not all preclinical work.
* K in combination against leukemia (AML) already [completed] preclinical work at UofB and a Phase 1b/2 Clinical Trial is poised to start once MTD is established in K/P1
* K against Retinoblastoma announced in March 2013 will commence after MTD is established in P1
* Prurisol bridge study complete--Awaiting final report before submission to FDA for P2 trial--Anticipated start date 1Q/15--http://cellceutix.com/cellceutix-anti-psoriasis-drug-prurisol-meets-primary-endpoint-of-clinical-trial/#sthash.fYZzgvRO.dpbs
* B against ABSSSI near 100% enrollment and treated NO AE's--Expected completion within a couple of weeks
* B OM Preparing to submit to FDA for approval of P2 trial--http://cellceutix.com/cellceutix-prepares-for-phase-2-clinical-trial-of-brilacidin-om-for-oral-mucositis/#sthash.SpoCUTpB.dpbs--
* B ocular formulation studies underway at Dr Reddy's and should complete within the next few to 6 months.
* B otic also in formulation studies at Dr Reddy's
* B DFI just announced high efficacy and should begin final preclinical work ahead of clinical testing. "
*B NY/ NJ universities material transfer agreement defensive mimetics
*Cellceutix in June, 2014, entered into a research agreement with a renowned non-profit research institution for studies of anti-fungal compounds in Cellceutix’s portfolio. The research is to be funded by a $1.5 million grant from the National Institute of Health, Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) to the non-profit institution.
I figure this is a good time to rehash this as there are new eyes abound lately.
Thanks to Alex for putting most of this together.
Thanks for the list Farrell! My favorite is #6, especially this statement:
*Stabilization was achieved at low doses in terminal patients with relapsed tumors that were resistant to current chemotherapies
Since the trial was in the 5th cohort at that time, the "low doses" had to be 75 mg/m2 or less. Now cohort 8 is almost 3x the dosage. This is the reason why I am really looking forward to this year's R&R. Only three more weeks.
vip,
that also makes this interesting to watch play out. Will it form a handle or just breakout. Timing of news could play a big part in that. The size of friday's move and closing a fair distance above the upper bb could favor the forming of a handle. Especially, since historically CTIX gets back inside the bb's very quickly.
Would be a nice spot for a bull flag too.
Thanks for the discussion vip and ee. Have a great finish to your weekend and Trade Green.
Cup and handle, waiting for the cup to form completely at 1.90 then a short handle and the way we go.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=cup...ntinuation
Quote:
BigKahuna Friday, 10/05/12 06:53:29 PM
Re: None
