I'm not very smart but I know that AMBS at this ti
Post# of 30028
Posted On: 08/06/2014 12:30:25 PM
Re: Loco motion #3138
I'm not very smart but I know that AMBS at this time does not have any REVENUE and does not have any drugs in HUMAN CLINICAL TRIALS. With that being the case, we are weak and vulnerable to traders, especially since we are an OTC biotech penny stock.
But we are close to revenue (LymPro in 5 months) and human clinical trials (Eltoprazine in 4 months & MANF in 12-15 months).
There are things the market will reward us for prior to these two things happening:
1) Firm LymPro data with spec & sens numbers in the mid 90s. This will assure the market that LymPro is significantly better than it's nearest competition, Amivid (Eli Lilly). Such data will make a convincing case that the promised revenue will in fact come once we're commercialized. The market already knows that LymPro is less invasive and less expensive than Amivid.
2) Revenue Guidance. AMBS has been putting together a revenue model based on the number of pharmas doing AD clinical trials and the number of people who on their own would take such a blood test if it were available for under $1,500. For example, if 2015 revenue for 2015 is 70 million and at least 40 million is our profit, with 800 million outstanding shares that would give us a market cap from LymPro in the 400 million range, at a factor of 10 (price earnings ratio). That is .50 cents for Lympro alone. If 2016 revenue is projected to be substantially higher, 200 million, analysts might use a larger factor than 10 to establish our net present value.
3) Partner for LymPro. If someone like Johnson & Johnson signed on as a partner with us and gave us 30 to 50 million up front cash, that would really impress the market that LymPro is the real deal and revenue is very likely to show up.
4) MANF Toxicology Reports. If those come out and convince the market that MANF is likely to be safe, that will lay the ground work for the market to start giving value to MANF, even before it enters clinical trials.
5) MANF/Retinitis & Wolframs/Diabetes Data published in prominent journals. That will also lay important ground work for the market to start giving us value for MANF.
6) MANF/Retinitis & Wolframs Orphan Designation from the FDA. With the other groundwork for MANF in place, orphan status would make MANF indications like RP & Wolframs/Diabetes "partnerable." (Gerald's words to me personally in Santa Monica). Why? Because it would only take 3 years to get such an orphan through clinical trials and on to commercialization and at a much lower cost. Big Pharma would find that very attractive. We could get Orphan Designation by this Fall. A partnership could happen in the months to follow. Clinical trials on MANF will start second half of 2015. If these MANF got Break Through Orphan status, that would be even better! Gerald told me personally that the market would reward us for this designation significantly, and then even more once a partnership was announced. This will all happen in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015 IMHO.
7) Positive GDNF Phase 2b Results. The company testing GDNF is also using the Renshaw blood brain barrier deal, which we would use also on our Parkinson's MANF indication. MANF has been shown to be more effective than GDNF. If renshaw works for GDNF, Gerald feels this will boost the value of MANF. And while getting a Parkinson's drug through FDA approval might take 7 to 10 years, it also means that some Big Pharma might want to enter into a partnership on us with our MANF PD indications. That's where the value would come from to us as a result of a positive GDNF trial.
I think all of these things could happen in the next few months increasing our pps even before REVENUE AND HUMAN CLINICAL TRIALS. Once Revenue & Clinical Trials start.....the stock will never look back!! This is a massive buying opportunity below .15 cents!!
I don't know if this qualifies as a "smart" answer, but it is the basis for my confidence in AMBS' huge success in the near future.
P.S. Revenue & Clinical Trials will start by December of this year. But I believe we could get 2 MANF Partnerships in Q1 or Q2 of 2015. Smart money will know that and will induce them to give MANF more value in the remaining months of 2014 as each of the above MANF milestones are reached.
But we are close to revenue (LymPro in 5 months) and human clinical trials (Eltoprazine in 4 months & MANF in 12-15 months).
There are things the market will reward us for prior to these two things happening:
1) Firm LymPro data with spec & sens numbers in the mid 90s. This will assure the market that LymPro is significantly better than it's nearest competition, Amivid (Eli Lilly). Such data will make a convincing case that the promised revenue will in fact come once we're commercialized. The market already knows that LymPro is less invasive and less expensive than Amivid.
2) Revenue Guidance. AMBS has been putting together a revenue model based on the number of pharmas doing AD clinical trials and the number of people who on their own would take such a blood test if it were available for under $1,500. For example, if 2015 revenue for 2015 is 70 million and at least 40 million is our profit, with 800 million outstanding shares that would give us a market cap from LymPro in the 400 million range, at a factor of 10 (price earnings ratio). That is .50 cents for Lympro alone. If 2016 revenue is projected to be substantially higher, 200 million, analysts might use a larger factor than 10 to establish our net present value.
3) Partner for LymPro. If someone like Johnson & Johnson signed on as a partner with us and gave us 30 to 50 million up front cash, that would really impress the market that LymPro is the real deal and revenue is very likely to show up.
4) MANF Toxicology Reports. If those come out and convince the market that MANF is likely to be safe, that will lay the ground work for the market to start giving value to MANF, even before it enters clinical trials.
5) MANF/Retinitis & Wolframs/Diabetes Data published in prominent journals. That will also lay important ground work for the market to start giving us value for MANF.
6) MANF/Retinitis & Wolframs Orphan Designation from the FDA. With the other groundwork for MANF in place, orphan status would make MANF indications like RP & Wolframs/Diabetes "partnerable." (Gerald's words to me personally in Santa Monica). Why? Because it would only take 3 years to get such an orphan through clinical trials and on to commercialization and at a much lower cost. Big Pharma would find that very attractive. We could get Orphan Designation by this Fall. A partnership could happen in the months to follow. Clinical trials on MANF will start second half of 2015. If these MANF got Break Through Orphan status, that would be even better! Gerald told me personally that the market would reward us for this designation significantly, and then even more once a partnership was announced. This will all happen in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015 IMHO.
7) Positive GDNF Phase 2b Results. The company testing GDNF is also using the Renshaw blood brain barrier deal, which we would use also on our Parkinson's MANF indication. MANF has been shown to be more effective than GDNF. If renshaw works for GDNF, Gerald feels this will boost the value of MANF. And while getting a Parkinson's drug through FDA approval might take 7 to 10 years, it also means that some Big Pharma might want to enter into a partnership on us with our MANF PD indications. That's where the value would come from to us as a result of a positive GDNF trial.
I think all of these things could happen in the next few months increasing our pps even before REVENUE AND HUMAN CLINICAL TRIALS. Once Revenue & Clinical Trials start.....the stock will never look back!! This is a massive buying opportunity below .15 cents!!
I don't know if this qualifies as a "smart" answer, but it is the basis for my confidence in AMBS' huge success in the near future.
P.S. Revenue & Clinical Trials will start by December of this year. But I believe we could get 2 MANF Partnerships in Q1 or Q2 of 2015. Smart money will know that and will induce them to give MANF more value in the remaining months of 2014 as each of the above MANF milestones are reached.
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