TECO end of month analysis
Unless there is a drastic change tomorrow, TECO will have it's second monthly close below 4 cents since April 2011. The last time it closed below 4 cents on a monthly basis was in June where it actually hit 3 cents before rallying sharply up to 7 cents in July.
One must note that September was incredibly light, in fact unless we see 9 million shares trade tomorrow this was the second lightest volume month for Teco this year. Big boys can manipulate the stock during light volume, and this month has been no exception.
We have multiple catalysts on the horizon in the form of the 10 Q, which is what I am focused on, and presumably W. Texas, Belize, or E. Texas. I generally like seeing a stock move down going into a catalyst because it means that the worst news tends to be baked into the cake. The opposite is true if a stock rallies into a catalyst, which means the good news is likely baked into the cake.
I have to put this out there even though I am hoping it does not play out, but there is a chance that the stock moves down to 3 cents if it can not hold the 3.5 cent support on a weekly basis. That means if it closes below 3.5 cents this week, and then sees some more lower closes going into next week and mid October, the bears just might succeed at blasting the stock down to 3 cents.
If something like that were to happen it would likely come as a result of delays or disappointment in an expected news catalyst.
However, I still put the 70% odds on 3.5 cent support holding. There may be intraweek moves below, and even a weekly close below that level, but I think it will close back above the following week. This is based on the assumption that the 10 Q should satisfy the big money, and that incremental news of oil production should be coming out of East/West Texas or Belize by the end of October.
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