Nvidia's 2025 AI GPU Forecast Increased by Mizuho Analysts
Nvidia AI GPU Unit Forecast for 2025 Boosted
Mizuho’s Asia hardware and semiconductor analysts have recently improved their forecast for Nvidia’s AI GPU units for 2025. This upward adjustment results from anticipated growth linked to expanded production capabilities, which is great news for the tech-focused market.
Key Adjustments to GPU Shipments
The analysts now predict that Nvidia will ship between 6.5 and 7 million AI GPUs in 2025, representing an increase of 8-10% from previous estimates released in July 2024. This adjustment highlights significant supply chain enhancements, particularly concerning the advanced CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology.
Details of the Shipment Forecast
Included in this forecast are about 3 million units of the CoWoS-S GPUs, primarily featuring the Hopper and Blackwell models. Notably, the CoWoS-S line is expected to achieve a remarkable yield of over 99%, indicating a highly efficient production process.
Production Capacity Expansion
Another key component of the forecast involves the CoWoS-L production process, anticipated to deliver between 3.8 and 4 million units. A significant portion of this output, approximately 80-90%, is earmarked for the production of high-demand GB200 server racks, a crucial element for many tech infrastructures.
Partnership with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
This adjusted forecast aligns with actions taken by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia’s vital production partner, which is on track to double its annual wafer capacity. This enhanced capacity is critical for enabling Nvidia to meet the growing demand for AI-centric graphics processing units.
Market Expectations and Supply Dynamics
Mizuho’s insights suggest that while supply constraints related to CoWoS technology are expected to persist into 2025, an increase in production capacity will start to alleviate these challenges. Analysts estimate that TSMC will ramp up its wafer capacity to over 650,000, a 100% increase year-over-year.
Optimistic Outlook for Component Suppliers
In addition to bolstering front-end chip production, some back-end processes may be outsourced to Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE), which will further help improve the supply-demand dynamics in the semiconductor market.
Addressing Investor Concerns
Market analysts have addressed investor apprehension regarding potential delays in launching the Blackwell GPU. There’s a consensus that these worries have been somewhat exaggerated. Both TSMC and SK Hynix Inc. are expected to achieve solid sales growth coinciding with the release of the Blackwell GPU in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Impact on AI Server Production
Mizuho's analysts maintain that they do not foresee any semiconductor production delays affecting AI server production in 2025. They also highlighted that Taiwanese back-end equipment vendors, such as Allring Tech, are likely to see favorable outcomes from TSMC's localization vendor strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the reason behind the increase in Nvidia's GPU forecast?
The increase is primarily due to expanded production capacity and improved supply chain dynamics, as identified by Mizuho analysts.
How many AI GPU units is Nvidia expected to ship in 2025?
Nvidia is projected to ship between 6.5 and 7 million AI GPU units by 2025, including a significant number of CoWoS-S GPUs.
What are the key technologies mentioned in the report?
The key technologies highlighted include CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate), particularly CoWoS-S and CoWoS-L processes.
Who are Nvidia’s key production partners?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is one of Nvidia's primary production partners, aiding in increased wafer capacity.
Will delays in GPU rollouts affect the AI server production?
According to Mizuho's analysts, delays in GPU rollouts are not expected to impact AI server production negatively in 2025.
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