Needham's Stock Predictions: Foot Locker Shines, Skechers Struggles

Needham Begins Coverage on Leading Footwear Stocks

Needham & Co. has initiated coverage on two prominent footwear retailers, Foot Locker and Skechers USA Inc, with differing ratings. Foot Locker stocks received a 'Buy' rating, reflecting optimistic forecasts for future performance. In contrast, Skechers has been given a 'Hold' rating due to current market challenges.

The Challenges Facing Skechers USA Inc

Skechers has encountered a turbulent period in the footwear industry, particularly in the China market, which has faced volatility and growth deceleration. The company, known for its innovative and stylish footwear, saw its exceptional growth peak during the last quarter of the previous year. However, this growth has led to three consecutive quarters of decline, with a notable 6% decrease in the latest quarter.

Macro Issues Affecting Performance

According to Needham analyst Tom Nikic, the challenges facing Skechers appear more macroeconomic and less specific to the company itself. Skechers holds the largest exposure to the Chinese market among Needham's coverage group, with 15% of its consolidated revenue linked to this region. Consequently, ongoing challenges in this market could serve as a considerable headwind for the company.

Declining Margins and Earnings Forecast

Skechers has also reported a decline in its gross margin—a key driver of profitability—with an 80 basis point year-over-year decrease noted in the third quarter. A combination of shifting supply chain dynamics, pricing pressures, and adjustments in channel mix is likely to restrain margin improvement in the short run. Furthermore, Needham projects that Skechers' earnings per share (EPS) will be around $4.63, which falls short of the market consensus of $4.95.

Foot Locker's Bright Prospects

In contrast, Foot Locker presents a more favorable outlook. The firm's strategic realignment and recovery plans position it as a compelling investment opportunity for the near future. With a renewed partnership with Nike, along with momentum in non-Nike brands, Foot Locker is set to capitalize on prior investments in its operations and customer engagement strategies.

Positive Earnings Recovery on the Horizon

Needham's analysis indicates a fundamental recovery in Foot Locker's performance driven by several positive factors, including merchandise margin improvement. Although the company might currently be experiencing a decline post-back-to-school shopping season, there are signs that growth could accelerate as the holidays approach. A consumer survey recently indicated significant interest in sneakers this season, which adds to the optimistic outlook.

Future Growth and Opportunities

Moreover, Foot Locker is expected to see a beneficial impact from Nike increasing its allocation of high-demand products to the retailer, beginning in the fourth quarter of the year. The strategic investments made in technology and infrastructure are likely to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, fostering meaningful margin expansion by fiscal year 2025.

Frequently Asked Questions

What ratings did Needham assign to Skechers and Foot Locker?

Needham assigned a 'Hold' rating to Skechers and a 'Buy' rating to Foot Locker.

What challenges is Skechers facing?

Skechers is experiencing growth challenges primarily in the volatile China market.

How does Foot Locker plan to recover its earnings?

Foot Locker is focusing on strengthening its relationship with Nike and enhancing its operational effectiveness to recover earnings.

What is the projected EPS for Skechers according to Needham?

Needham projects Skechers will have an EPS of $4.63, which is below market expectations.

What recent consumer trends support Foot Locker's outlook?

A recent survey indicates high consumer interest in sneakers for the upcoming holiday season, suggesting potential sales growth for Foot Locker.

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