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Posted On: 12/11/2022 5:05:29 PM
Post# of 148887
Re: USS JOHNSTON #131211
We probably have a little less than 1.1 billion shares fully diluted right now. So it would take around $330 million to buy the company at the current share price. We also had $122 million in debt as of Aug 31st, so you'd need to add that to the potential price. Plus there is over $200 million in money that may be owed to Samsung in the next 3 years, although that could very much be open to negotiation.
So you'd have to start with the questions, would there be buyout interest in the company at $550/750 million and what kind of premium could the company expect above that?
Share price matters. It's something another company I'm in is dealing with as well. I have a relatively large position in Anteris Technologies, an early clinical-stage Aussie heart valve company that could reasonably expect a $1.5 billion or more buyout offer but the stock currently trades at $215 million and I doubt any company is going to pay 7x the share price for a company still awaiting definitive data. I'm no expert in arbitrage history but my guess is that 7x buyout offers are exceedingly rare. Something like that happened for an oil company called Petroteq earlier this year but the buyout offer turned out to be a scam.
Cytodyn is in the same boat as Anteris. Cyrus has said that he needs to produce unequivocal data to get the company where it needs to be.
A $10 buyout of us is absolutely out of the question at this point when we are trading for a $240 market cap before fully diluted shares and debt is figured in. That's not being pessimistic at all, it's just the way things are. I really, really doubt that anybody is going to offer anything anywhere close to $10+ billion. Plus it's important to remember that when valuing companies for buyouts, discounts are added for drugs still in clinical trials and the longer until possible approval, the more discount is added. So maybe a 60-70% discount for leronlimab because we still expect to need years of trials before approval, although combo could still be in play and could figure in.
So in summary, I think a buyout offer for a price shareholders would vote for is likely not a possibility at this point. I'd love to be wrong but I think expecting an optimal offer is very unrealistic right now.
Cyrus still needs time to get the ship right and produce results that could draw in a significant partner. That's not saying a partnership is out of the question in the interim, but to bring in big money it seems like we need to show unequivocal efficacy. Obviously Amarex is a wildcard that could be a nice positive catalyst but we'll have to see how that turns out.
So you'd have to start with the questions, would there be buyout interest in the company at $550/750 million and what kind of premium could the company expect above that?
Share price matters. It's something another company I'm in is dealing with as well. I have a relatively large position in Anteris Technologies, an early clinical-stage Aussie heart valve company that could reasonably expect a $1.5 billion or more buyout offer but the stock currently trades at $215 million and I doubt any company is going to pay 7x the share price for a company still awaiting definitive data. I'm no expert in arbitrage history but my guess is that 7x buyout offers are exceedingly rare. Something like that happened for an oil company called Petroteq earlier this year but the buyout offer turned out to be a scam.
Cytodyn is in the same boat as Anteris. Cyrus has said that he needs to produce unequivocal data to get the company where it needs to be.
A $10 buyout of us is absolutely out of the question at this point when we are trading for a $240 market cap before fully diluted shares and debt is figured in. That's not being pessimistic at all, it's just the way things are. I really, really doubt that anybody is going to offer anything anywhere close to $10+ billion. Plus it's important to remember that when valuing companies for buyouts, discounts are added for drugs still in clinical trials and the longer until possible approval, the more discount is added. So maybe a 60-70% discount for leronlimab because we still expect to need years of trials before approval, although combo could still be in play and could figure in.
So in summary, I think a buyout offer for a price shareholders would vote for is likely not a possibility at this point. I'd love to be wrong but I think expecting an optimal offer is very unrealistic right now.
Cyrus still needs time to get the ship right and produce results that could draw in a significant partner. That's not saying a partnership is out of the question in the interim, but to bring in big money it seems like we need to show unequivocal efficacy. Obviously Amarex is a wildcard that could be a nice positive catalyst but we'll have to see how that turns out.
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