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Posted On: 07/22/2022 7:26:15 AM
Post# of 148899
I personally don't believe that much of this recent run up in share price is due much at all due to shorts covering. I don't think they have begun to cover. They may soon, but I think these outbursts of huge share purchases in lots in the hundreds of thousands even some of up to 0.5 million at once are due either to existing share holders or new share holders.
The past couple of days, we have had about 7 million shares traded per day. Each day saw about 50% short interest. That's 3.5 million per day shorted.
The overall short interest has not gone down. It remains just about 53-54 million shares.
If the shorts start covering at huge lots in the same way the longs have recently been acquiring, you would see a rapid reduction in the short interest and you would see a rapid escalation in share price.
Here some longs or new longs put in some massive new purchases with modest increases in share price while shorts had to escalate their game to put a tamponade on the share price rise.
Once shorts find it becomes necessary to cover or buy back hundreds of thousands of shares so they don't lose many multiples of their own risk, (whereas, a long can only lose his own risk and no more), they will start doing that, and they will have to do it at many times their own entry price. And that will only cause the share price to further rise.
That will induce other shorts, maybe a little smaller in size to begin off loading their short interest. They will start buying back at even higher prices which again will only continue to escalate share price.
This chain reaction will cause the smaller shorts with less risk on the table and who have higher tolerance to begin "buying or covering" again continuing to put upward pressure on share price.
The new longs have initiated a buying frenzy into the next month. You will know when the shorts no longer can take the heat. All of them at once will leave the furnace on fire.
The past couple of days, we have had about 7 million shares traded per day. Each day saw about 50% short interest. That's 3.5 million per day shorted.
The overall short interest has not gone down. It remains just about 53-54 million shares.
If the shorts start covering at huge lots in the same way the longs have recently been acquiring, you would see a rapid reduction in the short interest and you would see a rapid escalation in share price.
Here some longs or new longs put in some massive new purchases with modest increases in share price while shorts had to escalate their game to put a tamponade on the share price rise.
Once shorts find it becomes necessary to cover or buy back hundreds of thousands of shares so they don't lose many multiples of their own risk, (whereas, a long can only lose his own risk and no more), they will start doing that, and they will have to do it at many times their own entry price. And that will only cause the share price to further rise.
That will induce other shorts, maybe a little smaller in size to begin off loading their short interest. They will start buying back at even higher prices which again will only continue to escalate share price.
This chain reaction will cause the smaller shorts with less risk on the table and who have higher tolerance to begin "buying or covering" again continuing to put upward pressure on share price.
The new longs have initiated a buying frenzy into the next month. You will know when the shorts no longer can take the heat. All of them at once will leave the furnace on fire.
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