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Posted On: 02/15/2022 4:19:58 PM
Post# of 148870
Respert,
You set forth quite a bit of important information that appears to indicate the likelihood of a partnership or buyout. I agree it is likely. The question is, how likely?
I'm interested in whether we can quantify that likelihood with a forecast. I am NOT a forecaster by trade. This is more of a thought experiment and is not investment advice for any new investor who needs to do their own diligence.
In one sense, quantifying a prediction here is very difficult for me to do as a long-term investor in CYDY with quite a bit on the line - there exists significant risk of personal bias favoring (hoping for) the company's prospects. In another sense, because of my years of studying Leronlimab, with the invaluable help of the excellent members of this board in more recent years, I am at a significant informational advantage over the average investor.
Proper analysis of all the data points could fill a sizeable volume. However, here are my high-level points.
The positives include the objective facts / science regarding the molecule itself (evidence of effectiveness in multiple key indications and a remarkable safety profile), the circumstances surrounding the recent silence (very promising Nash and cancer results, departure of Nader, and payment of the bond), the advantageous structure/protocol of the Brazil COVID trials, and the reality of a successful Phase 3 HIV trial that will have a BLA submitted this year. These factors strongly indicate a near-term positive event.
Cutting against these positives are the FDA and any bias or lack of trust it may have with regard to CYDY, the unknown nature of Nader's recent departure (assumed to be a positive but there is always a risk that it could be for very different reasons than people are predicting), risks involving the past BLA failures (receptor occupancy, etc.), chance of failing to fill the Brazil COVID trials, and the company's recent cash position.
There are many other factors. This is not science - it is the best prediction I can make based on the facts I have digested over time.
Here are my predictions. I welcome others' competing predictions (and the reasons backing them up) as well.
Partnership or buyout - 80% likelihood
Partnership - 55% likelihood
Buyout - 25% likelihood
Neither - 20% likelihood
You statisticians and modelers can tell me what I did wrong here. This is currently where I'm at. I welcome a good argument to help me refine my approach if someone has it.
I'm Patient and Long for good reason.
You set forth quite a bit of important information that appears to indicate the likelihood of a partnership or buyout. I agree it is likely. The question is, how likely?
I'm interested in whether we can quantify that likelihood with a forecast. I am NOT a forecaster by trade. This is more of a thought experiment and is not investment advice for any new investor who needs to do their own diligence.
In one sense, quantifying a prediction here is very difficult for me to do as a long-term investor in CYDY with quite a bit on the line - there exists significant risk of personal bias favoring (hoping for) the company's prospects. In another sense, because of my years of studying Leronlimab, with the invaluable help of the excellent members of this board in more recent years, I am at a significant informational advantage over the average investor.
Proper analysis of all the data points could fill a sizeable volume. However, here are my high-level points.
The positives include the objective facts / science regarding the molecule itself (evidence of effectiveness in multiple key indications and a remarkable safety profile), the circumstances surrounding the recent silence (very promising Nash and cancer results, departure of Nader, and payment of the bond), the advantageous structure/protocol of the Brazil COVID trials, and the reality of a successful Phase 3 HIV trial that will have a BLA submitted this year. These factors strongly indicate a near-term positive event.
Cutting against these positives are the FDA and any bias or lack of trust it may have with regard to CYDY, the unknown nature of Nader's recent departure (assumed to be a positive but there is always a risk that it could be for very different reasons than people are predicting), risks involving the past BLA failures (receptor occupancy, etc.), chance of failing to fill the Brazil COVID trials, and the company's recent cash position.
There are many other factors. This is not science - it is the best prediction I can make based on the facts I have digested over time.
Here are my predictions. I welcome others' competing predictions (and the reasons backing them up) as well.
Partnership or buyout - 80% likelihood
Partnership - 55% likelihood
Buyout - 25% likelihood
Neither - 20% likelihood
You statisticians and modelers can tell me what I did wrong here. This is currently where I'm at. I welcome a good argument to help me refine my approach if someone has it.
I'm Patient and Long for good reason.
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