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I do agree that him still being wildly optimistic when it's likely that he knows the results, is a good sign. Well, either he is really excited about what we are about to find out, or he is mentally unstable. Obviously I believe it's the former.

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Yup.

The thing is: he MUST know the results. The PE at least. If you give me the number of deaths in either arm I could tell you the p-value in 30 seconds (no exaggeration here).

He is no fool.

Now, let's assume for a moment he knows we badly missed it. He knows he will have to face the music and communicate this to the whole world.

Which is not (should not) his main worry.

He has to deal with the financial fallout and taking us to the BLA for HIV with much diminished funds.

Would you go into an interview and have the guts to "raise your three fingers" while talking about the SP ???

No way Jose ....

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I just want to make sure we don't give this more meaning than it deserves.

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Pufffff difficult not to .... Or, is it my very scarce brain-cells are getting tired ???