IndexGuy: Have you read the prior post that if the 45 breakdown is 21Lero/24SOC, the p value would be <.005, which apparently is the goalpost to stop a trial for overwhelming efficacy. 21 Lero deaths/130 would be 16.1%, which is approximately the EIND death rate, excluding Montefiore. Moreover, ohm has repeatedly forecast that the CD12 Lero death rate will be well below the EIND death rate.

I agree with you that everything is riding on the CD12 results well into the future, but I believe that ohm is best suited to make an educated guess on this, and I'm banking that he is right that Lero deaths will be well below 21.