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Posted On: 07/29/2020 7:10:48 PM
Post# of 36541
Hi Buildit - Here are my 2 cents as to why GNBT share price is so low, but NGIO's share price can be high -
1. GNBT has issued many shares out - convertible note holders, Veneto/CM...those people own thousands/millions of shares...NGIO spin off is either not happening fast enough for them or they don't believe that would happen easily, so they sell GNBT shares so they can have cash. So far, not too many NGIO shares have been issued...so less possibility of people dumping NGIO shares...
2. It does seem to me some folks want to keep the GNBT PPS low...they can do that on OTC, but will not be able (or will have a hard time) to do that on a major exchange..since NGIO will be spun off to a major exchange, NGIO's PPS should be more in line with its true valuation.
3. GNBT has lots hair on it...some people don't feel comfortable owning GNBT shares...so demand is low....but NGIO does not have any hair on it, demand for those shares will be there especially with vaccine and 10 year efficacy data on breast cancer.
4. Herd mentality - people like to chase stocks that go up...GNBT's PPS has suffered much in the past (bad actors selling when they should not have been selling)...so, GNBT is not a stock of choice right now especially when other stocks are going up daily...why own GNBT when you can't see immediate PPS increase when you can own/trade other hot stocks.
I do think our patience will be paid off eventually...I am hoping by the end of the 2020 at least -
A few things that can propel PPS in the near term
1. BARDA/Health Canada/Malaysia funding
2. China Swine Flu Contract
3. China pays the $1 million and reimburse all covid vaccine development costs
4. GNBT S1s approved
5. NGIO S1s filed
6. Great test results of peptides against infected blood
7. FDA approves - Covid vaccine can start trial 1/2
A couple things that can shoot up PPS in 3-6 months
1. Successful covid vaccine
2. NGIO spins off
Comments/thoughts anyone? Thanks!
Buildit wrote -
Hey, Hoops!
I've sort of run thru a simple analysis of GNBT shares as they relate to NGIO shares a couple of times, and here's my thinking.
1) IF NGIO can get uplisted above $4/sh with 400MM shares (I still don't quite understand why it wasn't 200MM shares, even if we then ended up at $8/sh... but that's a different discussion), that implies a value of $1.6B for NGIO.
2) Let's presume GNBT ends up at 100MM shares OS after paying the bills post-NGIO spin.
3) GNBT keeps 70% of NGIO shares or 280MM shares.
4) This means that each share of GNBT would effectively "own" 2.8 shares of NGIO. That is $11.20 worth of a measurable, liquid asset.
5) So IF the market sees enough value to keep the NGIO shares at or above $4, I fail to see how GNBT shares would remain below $5 and not uplist... unless the market somehow thinks the GNBT assets have a hugely NEGATIVE value.
All that said, I still have a hard time seeing how there is somehow $1.56B ($1.6B less our current GNBT market cap) in value that will be unlocked simply by spinning off NGIO and listing on a major exchange. I've asked the board this Q before. Is simply allowing institutional buyers to participate all it takes to perform that magical release of pent-up value?
Otherwise, someone could come in now and buy GNBT shares to make a killing (as we're all hoping to do).
Currently, if we say GNBT assets are worth $0, the value of a share of NGIO is valued as follows:
1) ~80MM shares of GNBT own ~360MM shares of NGIO (rounding to 90%... I think it's closer to 91%). So each share of GNBT currently "owns" 4.5 shares of NGIO.
2) GNBT share price is $0.52. So $0.52/4.5 = an implied value of $0.1156/sh for NGIO.
3) If you apply a part of the $0.52 to GNBT assets, the implied value of each NGIO share only gets lower.
As I've said before, I think it is a HUGE stretch to fathom how an asset that is currently valued at about a dime is somehow worth $4+ when the uplist happens. And yet here I sit holding... and hoping... which I know is a terrible investment strategy.
Anyone else have insight/wisdom?
Read More: https://investorshangout.com/post/newpost/622...z6TcvOJpz2
1. GNBT has issued many shares out - convertible note holders, Veneto/CM...those people own thousands/millions of shares...NGIO spin off is either not happening fast enough for them or they don't believe that would happen easily, so they sell GNBT shares so they can have cash. So far, not too many NGIO shares have been issued...so less possibility of people dumping NGIO shares...
2. It does seem to me some folks want to keep the GNBT PPS low...they can do that on OTC, but will not be able (or will have a hard time) to do that on a major exchange..since NGIO will be spun off to a major exchange, NGIO's PPS should be more in line with its true valuation.
3. GNBT has lots hair on it...some people don't feel comfortable owning GNBT shares...so demand is low....but NGIO does not have any hair on it, demand for those shares will be there especially with vaccine and 10 year efficacy data on breast cancer.
4. Herd mentality - people like to chase stocks that go up...GNBT's PPS has suffered much in the past (bad actors selling when they should not have been selling)...so, GNBT is not a stock of choice right now especially when other stocks are going up daily...why own GNBT when you can't see immediate PPS increase when you can own/trade other hot stocks.
I do think our patience will be paid off eventually...I am hoping by the end of the 2020 at least -
A few things that can propel PPS in the near term
1. BARDA/Health Canada/Malaysia funding
2. China Swine Flu Contract
3. China pays the $1 million and reimburse all covid vaccine development costs
4. GNBT S1s approved
5. NGIO S1s filed
6. Great test results of peptides against infected blood
7. FDA approves - Covid vaccine can start trial 1/2
A couple things that can shoot up PPS in 3-6 months
1. Successful covid vaccine
2. NGIO spins off
Comments/thoughts anyone? Thanks!
Buildit wrote -
Hey, Hoops!
I've sort of run thru a simple analysis of GNBT shares as they relate to NGIO shares a couple of times, and here's my thinking.
1) IF NGIO can get uplisted above $4/sh with 400MM shares (I still don't quite understand why it wasn't 200MM shares, even if we then ended up at $8/sh... but that's a different discussion), that implies a value of $1.6B for NGIO.
2) Let's presume GNBT ends up at 100MM shares OS after paying the bills post-NGIO spin.
3) GNBT keeps 70% of NGIO shares or 280MM shares.
4) This means that each share of GNBT would effectively "own" 2.8 shares of NGIO. That is $11.20 worth of a measurable, liquid asset.
5) So IF the market sees enough value to keep the NGIO shares at or above $4, I fail to see how GNBT shares would remain below $5 and not uplist... unless the market somehow thinks the GNBT assets have a hugely NEGATIVE value.
All that said, I still have a hard time seeing how there is somehow $1.56B ($1.6B less our current GNBT market cap) in value that will be unlocked simply by spinning off NGIO and listing on a major exchange. I've asked the board this Q before. Is simply allowing institutional buyers to participate all it takes to perform that magical release of pent-up value?
Otherwise, someone could come in now and buy GNBT shares to make a killing (as we're all hoping to do).
Currently, if we say GNBT assets are worth $0, the value of a share of NGIO is valued as follows:
1) ~80MM shares of GNBT own ~360MM shares of NGIO (rounding to 90%... I think it's closer to 91%). So each share of GNBT currently "owns" 4.5 shares of NGIO.
2) GNBT share price is $0.52. So $0.52/4.5 = an implied value of $0.1156/sh for NGIO.
3) If you apply a part of the $0.52 to GNBT assets, the implied value of each NGIO share only gets lower.
As I've said before, I think it is a HUGE stretch to fathom how an asset that is currently valued at about a dime is somehow worth $4+ when the uplist happens. And yet here I sit holding... and hoping... which I know is a terrible investment strategy.
Anyone else have insight/wisdom?
Read More: https://investorshangout.com/post/newpost/622...z6TcvOJpz2
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