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Posted On: 07/29/2020 6:41:44 PM
Post# of 36541
Hey, Hoops!
I've sort of run thru a simple analysis of GNBT shares as they relate to NGIO shares a couple of times, and here's my thinking.
1) IF NGIO can get uplisted above $4/sh with 400MM shares (I still don't quite understand why it wasn't 200MM shares, even if we then ended up at $8/sh... but that's a different discussion), that implies a value of $1.6B for NGIO.
2) Let's presume GNBT ends up at 100MM shares OS after paying the bills post-NGIO spin.
3) GNBT keeps 70% of NGIO shares or 280MM shares.
4) This means that each share of GNBT would effectively "own" 2.8 shares of NGIO. That is $11.20 worth of a measurable, liquid asset.
5) So IF the market sees enough value to keep the NGIO shares at or above $4, I fail to see how GNBT shares would remain below $5 and not uplist... unless the market somehow thinks the GNBT assets have a hugely NEGATIVE value.
All that said, I still have a hard time seeing how there is somehow $1.56B ($1.6B less our current GNBT market cap) in value that will be unlocked simply by spinning off NGIO and listing on a major exchange. I've asked the board this Q before. Is simply allowing institutional buyers to participate all it takes to perform that magical release of pent-up value?
Otherwise, someone could come in now and buy GNBT shares to make a killing (as we're all hoping to do).
Currently, if we say GNBT assets are worth $0, the value of a share of NGIO is valued as follows:
1) ~80MM shares of GNBT own ~360MM shares of NGIO (rounding to 90%... I think it's closer to 91%). So each share of GNBT currently "owns" 4.5 shares of NGIO.
2) GNBT share price is $0.52. So $0.52/4.5 = an implied value of $0.1156/sh for NGIO.
3) If you apply a part of the $0.52 to GNBT assets, the implied value of each NGIO share only gets lower.
As I've said before, I think it is a HUGE stretch to fathom how an asset that is currently valued at about a dime is somehow worth $4+ when the uplist happens. And yet here I sit holding... and hoping... which I know is a terrible investment strategy.
Anyone else have insight/wisdom?
I've sort of run thru a simple analysis of GNBT shares as they relate to NGIO shares a couple of times, and here's my thinking.
1) IF NGIO can get uplisted above $4/sh with 400MM shares (I still don't quite understand why it wasn't 200MM shares, even if we then ended up at $8/sh... but that's a different discussion), that implies a value of $1.6B for NGIO.
2) Let's presume GNBT ends up at 100MM shares OS after paying the bills post-NGIO spin.
3) GNBT keeps 70% of NGIO shares or 280MM shares.
4) This means that each share of GNBT would effectively "own" 2.8 shares of NGIO. That is $11.20 worth of a measurable, liquid asset.
5) So IF the market sees enough value to keep the NGIO shares at or above $4, I fail to see how GNBT shares would remain below $5 and not uplist... unless the market somehow thinks the GNBT assets have a hugely NEGATIVE value.
All that said, I still have a hard time seeing how there is somehow $1.56B ($1.6B less our current GNBT market cap) in value that will be unlocked simply by spinning off NGIO and listing on a major exchange. I've asked the board this Q before. Is simply allowing institutional buyers to participate all it takes to perform that magical release of pent-up value?
Otherwise, someone could come in now and buy GNBT shares to make a killing (as we're all hoping to do).
Currently, if we say GNBT assets are worth $0, the value of a share of NGIO is valued as follows:
1) ~80MM shares of GNBT own ~360MM shares of NGIO (rounding to 90%... I think it's closer to 91%). So each share of GNBT currently "owns" 4.5 shares of NGIO.
2) GNBT share price is $0.52. So $0.52/4.5 = an implied value of $0.1156/sh for NGIO.
3) If you apply a part of the $0.52 to GNBT assets, the implied value of each NGIO share only gets lower.
As I've said before, I think it is a HUGE stretch to fathom how an asset that is currently valued at about a dime is somehow worth $4+ when the uplist happens. And yet here I sit holding... and hoping... which I know is a terrible investment strategy.
Anyone else have insight/wisdom?
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