(Total Views: 565)
Posted On: 05/24/2020 1:01:11 PM
Post# of 153933
The 24.5% "revision" is misleading. The number is neither a revision nor easily defensible.
The key here is that that 88% is based only on the patients who died or were discharged, and does not include the 72%(!) of patients who did not fit into either category (living but not yet discharged). What will be the fate of that 72% that they didn't count? It has enormous implications for how that 88% will shake out in the end.
The data:
1151 patients
38 discharged
252 died
831 remained in hospital
252/(252 + 38) = 88%
38/1151 = 24.5% (assumes all the "remained in hospital" will survive)
Dr. Northwell (quoted in that USA Today article) takes that extreme. I presume he knows more than I about how those "remained in hospital" patients" will turn out, but it's the advocate in him that assumes "all will survive."
Another possibility is that the fatality rate among the "remained in hospital" will match the 88% among the died or discharged population. This assumption also is not rooted in anything real and is advocacy-driven.
My guess is that the number will end up being closer to the 24% than the 88%. But who knows? [Someone probably does know! But very few---if any---have seen the data.]
The key here is that that 88% is based only on the patients who died or were discharged, and does not include the 72%(!) of patients who did not fit into either category (living but not yet discharged). What will be the fate of that 72% that they didn't count? It has enormous implications for how that 88% will shake out in the end.
The data:
1151 patients
38 discharged
252 died
831 remained in hospital
252/(252 + 38) = 88%
38/1151 = 24.5% (assumes all the "remained in hospital" will survive)
Dr. Northwell (quoted in that USA Today article) takes that extreme. I presume he knows more than I about how those "remained in hospital" patients" will turn out, but it's the advocate in him that assumes "all will survive."
Another possibility is that the fatality rate among the "remained in hospital" will match the 88% among the died or discharged population. This assumption also is not rooted in anything real and is advocacy-driven.
My guess is that the number will end up being closer to the 24% than the 88%. But who knows? [Someone probably does know! But very few---if any---have seen the data.]
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