I don't disagree with your premise. But trying to predict it is futile. I am a warrant holder and I haven't bought it sold a single warrant. I do swing trade the irrational drops.

I think people are way to focused on warrant holders as many don't understand them. It's also pretty simple. If you are an accredited investor (net worth of $1mm not counting real estate, or make over $200k per year) you can buy direct from the company.

These folks are generally less likely to act out of fear.