It's not quite that simple, because once some people have bought and are sitting in profits, they're susceptible to waves of fear from supposed bad news, or a sudden inexplicable drop, and get scared into selling. I'm explaining the theory of how these waves emerge as semi-predictable fractal patterns in lieu of speculating how many warrant holders are left to sell.

The newer stockholders are most at risk of getting shaken out. Even without bad news, natural waves of fear passing through the crowd of investors will accelerate sudden drops. If new holders believe in the company long term they should hold or take advantage of dips to buy more.